Tampa Bay Lightning at Vancouver Canucks
TV The Spot, SNP·Rogers Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
63%Lightning
to win
37%
Canucks
- Expected goals
- 3.4–2.6
- Goes to overtime
- 21%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors TBL.523vs.439win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors TBL.125vs-.2255v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors TBL.165vs-.089GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors TBL.294vs-1.045v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors VANVAN at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersLightning
Andrei Vasilevskiy+0.22 GSAx/6085% to start725 career GP
Dennis Hildeby+0.08 GSAx/609% to start26 career GP
Mads Sogaard-0.45 GSAx/606% to start31 career GP
Canucks
Kevin Lankinen-0.19 GSAx/6042% to start210 career GP
Thatcher Demko+0.12 GSAx/6041% to start267 career GP
Leevi Meriläinen-0.45 GSAx/6010% to start34 career GP
Nikita Tolopilo-0.16 GSAx/608% to start23 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: TBL Jon Cooper · VAN Manny Malhotra
Leaders
vs- Points
N. Kucherov130 - Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.494th
- Goals for / game
- 30th2.56
- 2.793rd
- Goals against / game
- 32nd3.83
- 20.7%17th
- Power play
- 14th21.8%
- 82.6%3rd
- Penalty kill
- 32nd71.5%
- 47.4%28th
- Faceoffs
- 22nd49.3%
Season series
first meeting- @
- @this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).