Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche
TV TNT, truTV·Ball Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
43%Stars
to win
57%
Avalanche
- Expected goals
- 2.8–3.2
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors COL.527vs.551win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors COL.038vs.2425v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signaleven.109vs.096GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors DAL.390vs.3375v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors COLCOL at home
- Back-to-backfavors DALDAL and COL played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersStars
Jake Oettinger+0.12 GSAx/6065% to start376 career GP
Casey DeSmith+0.09 GSAx/6035% to start225 career GP
Avalanche
Mackenzie Blackwood+0.09 GSAx/6054% to start302 career GP
Scott Wedgewood+0.12 GSAx/6044% to start214 career GP
Trent Miner-0.09 GSAx/602% to start6 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: DAL Glen Gulutzan · COL Jared Bednar
Leaders
vs- Points
N. MacKinnon127 - Goals
- Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).