Avalanche at Stars — Preview, Win Probability & Shot Map | Gridpex

Avalanche at Stars

Colorado Avalanche(55-16-11)

Dallas Stars(50-20-12)

Tue, Oct 13, 8:30 PM EDTTV ESPN, SN+·American Airlines Center

Our win probability

and the three reasons

52%

Avalanche

to win

48%

Stars

Expected goals: 3.1–2.9
Goes to overtime: 22%

← favors

favors

→

Ability to win22% of the signalfavors COL
.551vs.527win rate (OT = tie)
Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors COL
.242vs.0385v5 xG diff / 60
Goaltending12% of the signaleven
.096vs.109GSAx / 60
Home icefavors DAL
DAL at home

Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of Sep 28

Goaltending

projected starters

Avalanche

Mackenzie Blackwood+0.09 GSAx/60
54% to start302 career GP
Scott Wedgewood+0.12 GSAx/60
44% to start214 career GP
Trent Miner-0.09 GSAx/60
2% to start6 career GP

Stars

Jake Oettinger+0.12 GSAx/60
65% to start376 career GP
Casey DeSmith+0.09 GSAx/60
35% to start225 career GP

GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.

Coaches: COL Jared Bednar · DAL Glen Gulutzan

Leaders

vs

Season

2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32

3.631st
Goals for / game: 9th3.33; 2.401st
Goals against / game: 2nd2.71; 17.1%27th
Power play: 2nd28.6%; 84.6%1st
Penalty kill: 13th80.3%; 51.2%8th
Faceoffs: 7th51.6%

Season series

first meeting

Oct 13@this game
Oct 14@
Jan 22@
Jan 24@

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

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