Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers
TV The Spot, MSG·Madison Square Garden
Our win probability
and the three reasons
52%Lightning
to win
48%
Rangers
- Expected goals
- 3.1–2.9
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors TBL.523vs.476win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors TBL.125vs-.0575v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors TBL.165vs.114GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors NYR.294vs.3305v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors NYRNYR at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersLightning
Andrei Vasilevskiy+0.22 GSAx/6085% to start725 career GP
Dennis Hildeby+0.08 GSAx/609% to start26 career GP
Mads Sogaard-0.45 GSAx/606% to start31 career GP
Rangers
Igor Shesterkin+0.33 GSAx/6059% to start369 career GP
Joonas Korpisalo-0.19 GSAx/6041% to start350 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: TBL Jon Cooper · NYR Mike Sullivan
Leaders
vs- Points
N. Kucherov130 - Goals
- Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).