Lightning at Rangers — Preview, Win Probability & Shot Map | Gridpex

Lightning at Rangers

Tampa Bay Lightning(50-26-6)

New York Rangers(34-39-9)

Thu, Oct 1, 7:00 PM EDTTV The Spot, MSG·Madison Square Garden

Our win probability

and the three reasons

54%

Lightning

to win

46%

Rangers

Expected goals: 3.1–2.9
Goes to overtime: 22%

← favors

favors

→

Ability to win22% of the signalfavors TBL
.523vs.476win rate (OT = tie)
Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors TBL
.125vs-.0575v5 xG diff / 60
Goaltending12% of the signalfavors TBL
.165vs.112GSAx / 60
Home icefavors NYR
NYR at home

Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of Sep 28

Goaltending

projected starters

Lightning

Andrei Vasilevskiy+0.22 GSAx/60
85% to start725 career GP
Dennis Hildeby+0.08 GSAx/60
9% to start26 career GP
Mads Sogaard-0.45 GSAx/60
6% to start31 career GP

Rangers

Igor Shesterkin+0.33 GSAx/60
58% to start369 career GP
Joonas Korpisalo-0.19 GSAx/60
41% to start350 career GP

GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.

Coaches: TBL Jon Cooper · NYR Mike Sullivan

Leaders

vs

Season

2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32

3.494th
Goals for / game: 23rd2.87; 2.793rd
Goals against / game: 15th3.04; 20.7%17th
Power play: 5th24.7%; 82.6%3rd
Penalty kill: 15th79.9%; 47.4%28th
Faceoffs: 1st54.5%

Season series

first meeting

Oct 1@this game
Oct 13@
Mar 27@

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

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