Flames at Canucks — Preview, Win Probability & Shot Map | Gridpex

Flames at Canucks

Calgary Flames(34-39-9)

Vancouver Canucks(25-49-8)

Sat, Oct 3, 10:00 PM EDTTV SN, TVAS2·Rogers Arena

Our win probability

and the three reasons

50%

Flames

to win

50%

Canucks

Expected goals: 3.0–3.0
Goes to overtime: 22%

← favors

favors

→

Ability to win22% of the signalfavors CGY
.481vs.439win rate (OT = tie)
Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors CGY
-.127vs-.2255v5 xG diff / 60
Goaltending12% of the signalfavors CGY
.016vs-.089GSAx / 60
Home icefavors VAN
VAN at home

Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of Sep 28

Goaltending

projected starters

Flames

Dustin Wolf-0.02 GSAx/60
75% to start128 career GP
Devin Cooley+0.14 GSAx/60
25% to start37 career GP

Canucks

Kevin Lankinen-0.19 GSAx/60
42% to start210 career GP
Thatcher Demko+0.12 GSAx/60
41% to start267 career GP
Leevi Meriläinen-0.45 GSAx/60
10% to start34 career GP
Nikita Tolopilo-0.16 GSAx/60
8% to start23 career GP

GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.

Coaches: CGY Ryan Huska · VAN Manny Malhotra

Leaders

vs

M. Coronato
45
Points
E. Pettersson
51
M. Frost
22
Goals
J. DeBrusk
23
M. Coronato
27
Assists
F. Hronek
41

Season

2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32

2.5432nd
Goals for / game: 30th2.56; 3.1221st
Goals against / game: 32nd3.83; 16.2%31st
Power play: 14th21.8%; 80.4%12th
Penalty kill: 32nd71.5%; 49.3%21st
Faceoffs: 22nd49.3%

Season series

first meeting

Oct 3@this game
Dec 26@
Feb 27@
Apr 10@

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Sign in to join the chat.