Devils at Islanders — Preview, Win Probability & Shot Map | Gridpex

Devils at Islanders

New Jersey Devils(42-37-3)

New York Islanders(43-34-5)

Sat, Oct 3, 7:30 PM EDTTV MSGSN, MSG·UBS Arena

Our win probability

and the three reasons

48%

Devils

to win

52%

Islanders

Expected goals: 3.0–3.1
Goes to overtime: 22%

← favors

favors

→

Ability to win22% of the signaleven
.485vs.488win rate (OT = tie)
Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors NJD
-.033vs-.0695v5 xG diff / 60
Goaltending12% of the signalfavors NYI
-.029vs.078GSAx / 60
Projected lineupsfavors NJD
.249vs-.0345v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
Home icefavors NYI
NYI at home

Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of Sep 28

Goaltending

projected starters

Devils

Jake Allen0.00 GSAx/60
51% to start526 career GP
David Rittich-0.08 GSAx/60
38% to start264 career GP
Nico Daws-0.03 GSAx/60
11% to start55 career GP

Islanders

Ilya Sorokin+0.22 GSAx/60
45% to start322 career GP
Vitek Vanecek-0.21 GSAx/60
28% to start220 career GP
Semyon Varlamov+0.13 GSAx/60
27% to start635 career GP

GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.

Coaches: NJD Sheldon Keefe · NYI Peter DeBoer

Leaders

vs

J. Hughes
77
Points
M. Schaefer
59
A. Mantha
33
Goals
B. Horvat
31
J. Hughes
50
Assists
M. Schaefer
36

Season

2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32

2.7627th
Goals for / game: 25th2.79; 3.0918th
Goals against / game: 5th2.88; 22.0%13th
Power play: 30th16.5%; 79.3%17th
Penalty kill: 10th80.8%; 50.5%14th
Faceoffs: 5th52.6%

Season series

first meeting

Oct 3@this game
Nov 7@
Jan 16@
Apr 8@

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

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