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Sabres at Red Wings
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Detroit Red Wings

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
2
Detroit Red Wings
▸3
Final/OTTV DSN, MSG-B·Little Caesars Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Detroit Red Wings beat the Buffalo Sabres 3-2 in overtime, Alex DeBrincat scoring at 0:33. The Sabres scored first; the Red Wings answered. The Sabres led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Alex DeBrincat's goal at 0:33 of overtime, which took the Red Wings' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Red Wings, 3.0 to 2.5; shots on goal were BUF 19, DET 26. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Red Wings win a replay of these chances 59% of the time. Colten Ellis stopped 16 of 18 (.889); Daniil Tarasov stopped 17 of 19 (.895). Three stars: 1. Alex DeBrincat (1 G), 2. Sheldon Dries (1 G), 3. Jiri Kulich (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DET
    A. DeBrincat1 G
  2. ★★
    DET
    S. Dries1 G
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    J.Kulich1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
BUFBUF17160600219
DETDET180611012326

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    T. Kuntar(1)
    J. Richard (1)
    snapxG 0.15win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-0
    10:48
  2. DET
    A. Sandin-Pellikka(2)PPG
    A. Johansson (5), E. Finnie (2)
    slapxG 0.10win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-1
    16:11

2nd period

  1. BUF
    J.Kulich(1)
    N. Ostlund (1), R. Mrtka (1)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-1
    0:33

3rd period

  1. DET
    S. Dries(1)
    J. Bryson (1), W. Skoog (2)
    tip-inxG 0.06win prob +29 ptsVideo
    2-2
    7:13

Overtime

  1. DET
    A. DeBrincat(1)PPG
    L. Raymond (1), M. Seider (1)
    slapxG 0.18win prob +49 ptsVideo
    2-3
    0:33

Penalties

BUF 17 PIM·DET 17 PIM

1st

  • 14:57BUFVsevolod Komarov · Holdingdrawn by Andrew Copp2 min

2nd

  • 6:17DETAxel Sandin-Pellikka · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 13:44DETMoritz Seider · Trippingdrawn by Tyson Kozak2 min
  • 18:11BUFVsevolod Komarov · Trippingdrawn by Nate Danielson2 min

3rd

  • 0:54DETMoritz Seider · Roughingdrawn by Gavin McCarthy2 min
  • 0:54DETCarter Mazur · Holdingdrawn by Gavin McCarthy2 min
  • 0:54DETAlex DeBrincat · Fightingdrawn by Trevor Kuntar5 min
  • 0:54BUFGavin McCarthy · Roughingdrawn by Moritz Seider2 min
  • 0:54BUFTrevor Kuntar · Fightingdrawn by Alex DeBrincat5 min
  • 5:01BUFNoah Ostlund · Slashingdrawn by Nate Danielson2 min
  • 14:14BUFGavin McCarthy · High stickingdrawn by Michael Brandsegg-Nygård2 min
  • 14:14DETEmmitt Finnie · Roughing removing opponents helmetdrawn by Dennis Gilbert2 min
  • 16:02DETNate Danielson · Slashingdrawn by Konsta Helenius2 min
  • 18:41BUFGavin McCarthy · Holdingdrawn by Lucas Raymond2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DET goalBUF goalFinal: DET 100%

Biggest swing: Alex DeBrincat, OT 0:33 — DET 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
L. Raymond · Missed · xG 0.25L. Raymond · On goal · xG 0.20A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.18A. DeBrincat · Goal · xG 0.18A. Sandin-Pellikka · Missed · xG 0.17M. Appleton · Missed · xG 0.17E. Finnie · On goal · xG 0.15D. Shine · On goal · xG 0.14A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.13D. Shine · On goal · xG 0.13A. Sandin-Pellikka · Goal · xG 0.10M. Brandsegg-Nygård · On goal · xG 0.10A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.09M. Brandsegg-Nygård · Missed · xG 0.09N. Danielson · Missed · xG 0.08M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.07L. Raymond · Missed · xG 0.07A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.06N. Danielson · Missed · xG 0.06A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.06W. Wallinder · On goal · xG 0.06S. Dries · Goal · xG 0.06A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.05J. Bernard-Docker · Missed · xG 0.04C. Mazur · On goal · xG 0.03A. DeBrincat · Missed · xG 0.03N. Danielson · Missed · xG 0.03M. Seider · Missed · xG 0.03W. Skoog · On goal · xG 0.02A. Sandin-Pellikka · Missed · xG 0.02A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.02A. Johansson · On goal · xG 0.02A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.02E. Finnie · Missed · xG 0.02A. Johansson · On goal · xG 0.02M. Seider · Missed · xG 0.01M. Brandsegg-Nygård · Missed · xG 0.01A. Johansson · Missed · xG 0.01M. Appleton · Missed · xG 0.01J. Leonard · On goal · xG 0.01S. Dries · On goal · xG 0.01M. Brandsegg-Nygård · Missed · xG 0.00S. Dries · On goal · xG 0.00L. Raymond · On goal · xG 0.00
DET3 G · 3.0 xG · 44 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsDET
2.52 G
All situations
3 G3.0
1.32 G
Even strength
1 G1.6
1.10 G
Power play
2 G1.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 77 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF41%59%DET

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.42 – 2.95

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsDET
19
Shots on goal
26
53%
Faceoffs
47%
0/4
Power play
2/4
17
Penalty minutes
17
15
Hits
21
17
Blocked shots
13
24
Giveaways
13
4
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
94K. HeleniusC000+120.121108324:35
86N. OstlundC011010.530021723:56
73Z. MetsaD000010.01010—23:17
44D. GilbertD000000.00350—21:55
13M. PecaC000+110.001105417:47
15J. DanforthR000020.402005617:40
62G. McCarthyD000-100.00106—17:34
48T. KozakC000000.174105816:58
76V. KomarovD000000.00014—16:05
77T. BordeleauC000-120.240206715:40
33R. JohnsonD000+220.05030—15:01
57R. MrtkaD011+110.02010—14:22
70J. RichardR011+100.00000—14:19
28L. ValenteC000-100.05000—11:21
52T. KuntarC101+120.2420510010:55
41J. PolinR000030.25000—10:54
27A. McDonoughL000010.25110—10:53
20J.KulichC101+110.140006710:28
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
92C. Ellis(O)18162.8892.13+0.1341:59
34A. Lyon871.8750.86-0.1418:00

Season series

first meeting

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).