Buffalo Sabres at Detroit Red Wings
TV DSN, MSG-B·Little Caesars Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
51%Sabres
to win
49%
Red Wings
- Expected goals
- 3.0–3.0
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors BUF.535vs.496win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors BUF.045vs-.0605v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signaleven-.006vs-.027GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors BUF.725vs.2735v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors DETDET at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersSabres
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen-0.03 GSAx/6052% to start196 career GP
Alex Lyon+0.03 GSAx/6041% to start163 career GP
Colten Ellis-0.08 GSAx/607% to start16 career GP
Red Wings
John Gibson+0.04 GSAx/6070% to start589 career GP
Daniil Tarasov-0.18 GSAx/6030% to start98 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: BUF Lindy Ruff · DET Todd McLellan
Leaders
vs- Points
- Goals
- Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).