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Winnipeg Jets at Edmonton Oilers

FinalTV Oilers+·Rogers Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Edmonton Oilers beat the Winnipeg Jets 5-2. The Jets scored first; the Oilers answered. The Oilers led 4-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Leon Draisaitl's goal at 12:08 of the second period, which took the Oilers' chances from 72% to 88%. Expected goals favored the Jets, 3.0 to 2.8; shots on goal were WPG 21, EDM 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Jets win a replay of these chances 61% of the time. Thomas Milic stopped 23 of 27 (.852), 1.6 goals below expected; Tristan Jarry stopped 15 of 16 (.938), 1.1 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Ryan Shea (1 G, 2 A), 2. Evan Bouchard (4 A), 3. Alex Formenton (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    EDM
    R. Shea1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    EDM
    E. Bouchard4 A
  3. ★★★
    EDM
    A. Formenton1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
WPGWPG180815221
EDMEDM2142717528

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. WPG
    wristxG 0.12win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-0
    1:58
  2. EDM
    snapxG 0.14win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-1
    6:52
  3. EDM
    wristxG 0.04win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-2
    9:31

2nd period

  1. EDM
    snapxG 0.04win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-3
    12:08
  2. EDM
    backhandxG 0.11win prob +8 ptsVideo
    1-4
    13:51

3rd period

  1. WPG
    backhandxG 0.65win prob +1 ptsVideo
    2-4
    15:53
  2. EDM
    C. Dach(1)EN
    wristxG 0.37Video
    2-5
    18:53

Penalties

WPG 2 PIM·EDM 4 PIM

1st

  • 14:21EDMJoshua Brown · Trippingdrawn by Nikita Chibrikov2 min

3rd

  • 13:09WPGTyrel Bauer · Trippingdrawn by Alex Formenton2 min
  • 19:10EDMOwen Michaels · High stickingdrawn by Lucas Wahlin2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
EDM goalWPG goalFinal: EDM 100%

Biggest swing: Leon Draisaitl, 2nd 12:08 — EDM 72% → 88%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Dach · Goal · xG 0.37A. Formenton · On goal · xG 0.24M. Jones · Missed · xG 0.19E. Bouchard · On goal · xG 0.14R. Shea · Goal · xG 0.14C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.14V. Podkolzin · On goal · xG 0.13V. Podkolzin · On goal · xG 0.13V. Podkolzin · On goal · xG 0.13A. Formenton · Goal · xG 0.11V. Podkolzin · Missed · xG 0.11L. Draisaitl · Missed · xG 0.09C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.07V. Podkolzin · On goal · xG 0.06E. Bouchard · On goal · xG 0.06E. Bouchard · Missed · xG 0.06V. Podkolzin · On goal · xG 0.06A. Formenton · On goal · xG 0.06V. Podkolzin · Missed · xG 0.06C. Dach · Missed · xG 0.04A. Formenton · On goal · xG 0.04C. McDavid · Goal · xG 0.04L. Draisaitl · Goal · xG 0.04I. Howard · On goal · xG 0.03C. McDavid · Missed · xG 0.03E. Bouchard · On goal · xG 0.03A. Formenton · Missed · xG 0.02S. Stastney · On goal · xG 0.02J. Brown · On goal · xG 0.02V. Podkolzin · On goal · xG 0.02R. Shea · On goal · xG 0.02R. Stillman · On goal · xG 0.02A. Formenton · Missed · xG 0.01W. Nicholl · On goal · xG 0.01T. Emberson · On goal · xG 0.01C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.01C. Dach · Missed · xG 0.01S. Stastney · On goal · xG 0.01E. Bouchard · Missed · xG 0.00R. Stillman · Missed · xG 0.00
EDM5 G · 2.8 xG · 40 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

WPGvsEDM
3.02 G
All situations
4 G2.8
2.72 G
Even strength
4 G2.2
0.30 G
Power play
0 G0.1
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 72 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
WPG61%39%EDM

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.94 – 2.37

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

WPGvsEDM
21
Shots on goal
28
44%
Faceoffs
56%
0/2
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
4
11
Hits
28
19
Blocked shots
12
23
Giveaways
13
2
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Winnipeg Jets skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
24H. FleuryD000-100.00030—23:42
6J. St. IvanyD000-110.02210—22:45
61V. BjörckC000-120.451004120:18
8H. ThrunD000-200.00150—20:06
59L. GustafssonD000-110.02010—18:09
27I. RosenR000-130.27100—17:59
93B. LambertC000-120.44010017:57
3I. PhillipsD011+110.05000—16:38
77T. BauerD000-200.02202—16:17
25P. FordC101020.27100015:00
29B. YagerC011-100.010005714:43
90N. ChibrikovR000-320.34130—14:40
73N. GregorL000-230.14120—14:24
39C. BarlowL011000.00010—13:57
53D. ZhilkinC000-200.000103313:50
67J. JulienC101020.760005513:08
49L. WahlinR011+110.09010—12:52
46K. HeL000010.17100—12:36
Winnipeg Jets goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
32T. Milic(L)27234.8522.42-1.5858:59

Season series

first meeting

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).