Skip to content
Stars at Maple Leafs
NHL

Dallas Stars at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Dallas Stars
▸6
Toronto Maple Leafs
5
FinalTV Victory+, Prime·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 6-5. The Stars came back from three goals down. It was tied 3-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mavrik Bourque's goal at 14:52 of the third period, which took the Stars' chances from 48% to 88%. Expected goals favored the Stars, 3.6 to 2.3; shots on goal were DAL 32, TOR 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 71% of the time. Casey DeSmith stopped 22 of 27 (.815), 2.7 goals below expected; Artur Akhtyamov stopped 27 of 32 (.844), 2.4 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Mavrik Bourque (3 G, 1 A), 2. Matt Duchene (3 A), 3. William Nylander (1 G, 2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DAL
    M. Bourque3 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    DAL
    M. Duchene3 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    W. Nylander1 G, 2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DALDAL0731738632
TORTOR3908210527

Scoring

11 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    J. Tavares(31)PPG
    W. Nylander (48)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +9 ptsVideo
    0-1
    2:14
  2. TOR
    J. Quillan(1)
    S. Lorentz (11)
    deflectedxG 0.07win prob +14 ptsVideo
    0-2
    14:35
  3. TOR
    W. Nylander(29)
    J. McCabe (20), S. Benoit (6)
    batxG 0.32win prob +10 ptsVideo
    0-3
    15:51

2nd period

  1. DAL
    M. Bourque(17)
    Unassisted
    snapxG 0.14win prob +9 ptsVideo
    1-3
    0:52
  2. DAL
    M. Bourque(18)
    J. Robertson (51), M. Duchene (27)
    wristxG 0.36win prob +15 ptsVideo
    2-3
    5:31
  3. DAL
    J. Robertson(45)
    M. Duchene (28), M. Bourque (21)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +18 ptsVideo
    3-3
    9:29

3rd period

  1. TOR
    M. Domi(12)
    W. Nylander (49), M. Knies (42)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +24 ptsVideo
    3-4
    1:40
  2. TOR
    N. Robertson(16)
    T. Stecher (11), M. Knies (43)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +15 ptsVideo
    3-5
    4:19
  3. DAL
    W. Johnston(45)PPG
    M. Rantanen (55), T. Harley (30)
    snapxG 0.15win prob +13 ptsVideo
    4-5
    8:18
  4. DAL
    A. Hyry(3)
    Unassisted
    xG 0.10win prob +30 ptsVideo
    5-5
    9:38
  5. DAL
    M. Bourque(19)
    M. Duchene (29), A. Petrovic (8)
    wristxG 0.38win prob +40 ptsVideo
    6-5
    14:52

Penalties

DAL 4 PIM·TOR 6 PIM

1st

  • 1:09DALArttu Hyry · High stickingdrawn by Troy Stecher2 min
  • 8:45TORMorgan Rielly · Interferencedrawn by Colin Blackwell2 min

2nd

  • 5:39DALJamie Benn · Trippingdrawn by Troy Stecher2 min
  • 18:01TORRyan Tverberg · Trippingdrawn by Mikko Rantanen2 min

3rd

  • 6:37TORSteven Lorentz · Holdingdrawn by Oskar Bäck2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalDAL goalFinal: TOR 0%

Biggest swing: Mavrik Bourque, 3rd 14:52 — DAL 48% → 88%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
W. Nylander · Goal · xG 0.32N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.19J. Tavares · Goal · xG 0.16N. Robertson · Goal · xG 0.15M. Domi · Goal · xG 0.14N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.13N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.11N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.10M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.07J. Quillan · Goal · xG 0.07M. Knies · Missed · xG 0.07L. Haymes · Missed · xG 0.06J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.06E. Cowan · On goal · xG 0.06E. Cowan · Missed · xG 0.06J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.05N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.05L. Haymes · On goal · xG 0.05J. McCabe · Missed · xG 0.03S. Lorentz · Missed · xG 0.03T. Stecher · Missed · xG 0.03S. Lorentz · On goal · xG 0.02S. Benoit · On goal · xG 0.02W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.02W. Villeneuve · On goal · xG 0.02W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.02M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.02J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.02J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.02N. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.02S. Lorentz · On goal · xG 0.02S. Benoit · On goal · xG 0.02J. McCabe · On goal · xG 0.02J. McCabe · Missed · xG 0.01T. Stecher · On goal · xG 0.01W. Villeneuve · On goal · xG 0.01W. Villeneuve · Missed · xG 0.01M. Domi · Missed · xG 0.01J. Quillan · On goal · xG 0.01M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR5 G · 2.3 xG · 40 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DALvsTOR
3.66 G
All situations
5 G2.3
2.75 G
Even strength
4 G2.0
0.91 G
Power play
1 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 87 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DAL71%29%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.57 – 2.29

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DALvsTOR
32
Shots on goal
27
60%
Faceoffs
40%
1/3
Power play
1/2
4
Penalty minutes
6
11
Hits
27
11
Blocked shots
10
18
Giveaways
13
7
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Dallas Stars skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
55T. HarleyD011+120.05020—24:24
23E. LindellD000+100.00010—21:22
57T. MyersD000010.00040—20:46
21J. RobertsonL112+250.33000—19:26
96M. RantanenR011020.160006719:23
95M. DucheneC033+220.270107318:36
53W. JohnstonC101-130.691005618:24
46I. LyubushkinD000-110.03010—16:48
28A. PetrovicD011010.03300—16:29
22M. BourqueC314+171.161005715:56
20K. CapobiancoD000+110.02000—14:57
10O. BäckC000+120.0301010014:27
58M. BuntingL000-100.10200—14:20
49J. HryckowianC000-110.012006013:04
12R. FaksaC000+120.220005012:51
25A. HyryR101010.381028012:44
15C. BlackwellC000000.00110012:34
14J. BennL000-110.13002—10:24
Dallas Stars goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1C. DeSmith(W)27225.8152.30-2.7060:00

Season series

DAL leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).