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Maple Leafs at Stars
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Dallas Stars

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
1
Dallas Stars
▸5
FinalTV NHLN, Victory+·American Airlines Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 5-1. The Stars scored first and never trailed. The Stars led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jason Robertson's goal at 18:30 of the first period, which took the Stars' chances from 53% to 68%. Expected goals favored the Stars, 3.5 to 2.7; shots on goal were TOR 28, DAL 22. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 50% of the time. Dennis Hildeby stopped 17 of 21 (.810), 1.4 goals below expected; Jake Oettinger stopped 27 of 28 (.964), 1.7 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Jake Oettinger (27 saves, .964), 2. Sam Steel (1 G), 3. Jamie Benn (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DAL
    J. Oettinger27 saves, .964
  2. ★★
    DAL
    S. Steel1 G
  3. ★★★
    DAL
    J. Benn1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR0601517128
DALDAL1404414522

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. DAL
    J. Robertson(23)
    O. Bäck (4), R. Faksa (14)
    snapxG 0.21win prob +15 ptsVideo
    0-1
    18:30

3rd period

  1. DAL
    S. Steel(6)
    I. Lyubushkin (6), M. Rantanen (35)
    tip-inxG 0.04win prob +15 ptsVideo
    0-2
    5:03
  2. TOR
    S. Laughton(4)
    M. Rielly (19)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-2
    8:39
  3. DAL
    J. Benn(6)
    M. Heiskanen (26), E. Lindell (12)
    tip-inxG 0.14win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-3
    12:10
  4. DAL
    M. Bourque(5)EN
    E. Lindell (13), J. Oettinger (1)
    snapxG 0.91Video
    1-4
    17:55
  5. DAL
    J. Hryckowian(5)
    J. Benn (7), T. Harley (12)
    snapxG 0.49Video
    1-5
    19:43

Penalties

TOR 6 PIM·DAL 8 PIM

1st

  • 16:15DALMiro Heiskanen · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

2nd

  • 1:54TORMatias Maccelli · Trippingdrawn by Mikko Rantanen2 min
  • 3:31DALJason Robertson · Hookingdrawn by Morgan Rielly2 min
  • 10:17TORJohn Tavares · Trippingdrawn by Jason Robertson2 min
  • 14:31DALIlya Lyubushkin · Interferencedrawn by Scott Laughton2 min
  • 17:05DALThomas Harley · High stickingdrawn by Oliver Ekman-Larsson2 min

3rd

  • 6:36TORPhilippe Myers · Interferencedrawn by Roope Hintz2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DAL goalTOR goalFinal: DAL 100%

Biggest swing: Jason Robertson, 1st 18:30 — DAL 53% → 68%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Bourque · Goal · xG 0.91J. Hryckowian · Goal · xG 0.49M. Bourque · On goal · xG 0.22J. Robertson · Goal · xG 0.21J. Hryckowian · On goal · xG 0.16J. Benn · Goal · xG 0.14W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.12M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.11M. Bourque · On goal · xG 0.11J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.11R. Hintz · Missed · xG 0.11W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.11M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.10J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.09J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.07R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.06M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.06M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.05R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.05M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.04S. Steel · Goal · xG 0.04R. Faksa · On goal · xG 0.04J. Hryckowian · Missed · xG 0.03J. Hryckowian · Missed · xG 0.03E. Lindell · Missed · xG 0.02T. Harley · Missed · xG 0.01A. Petrovic · On goal · xG 0.01J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.01E. Lindell · Missed · xG 0.01M. Bourque · On goal · xG 0.01M. Heiskanen · Missed · xG 0.01I. Lyubushkin · On goal · xG 0.00M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.00
DAL5 G · 3.5 xG · 33 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsDAL
2.71 G
All situations
4 G3.5
2.01 G
Even strength
4 G2.3
0.70 G
Power play
0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 80 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR50%50%DAL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.60 – 2.58

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsDAL
28
Shots on goal
22
61%
Faceoffs
39%
0/4
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
8
24
Hits
11
9
Blocked shots
12
24
Giveaways
10
3
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
44M. RiellyD011050.29000—21:38
95O. Ekman-LarssonD000-210.16020—20:50
34A. MatthewsC000-140.200207920:26
22J. McCabeD000-200.00020—19:13
28T. StecherD000020.06000—18:59
2S. BenoitD000-200.01210—17:07
55N. RoyC000010.092002016:58
23M. KniesL000-100.10300—16:57
88W. NylanderR000-330.450005016:42
63M. MaccelliL000-210.16002—16:08
11M. DomiC000020.05000015:51
24S. LaughtonC101-150.141107015:19
91J. TavaresC000-320.790023314:18
89N. RobertsonL000000.00300—14:12
74B. McMannC000-110.1520010013:54
51P. MyersD000010.03312—13:46
18S. LorentzC000-100.03200012:19
81D. JoshuaC000-200.00600010:21
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35D. Hildeby(L)21174.8102.64-1.3659:02

Season series

DAL leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).