Capitals at Penguins 6-3 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Washington Capitals

▸6

Pittsburgh Penguins

FinalTV ABC, TVAS·PPG Paints Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Washington Capitals beat the Pittsburgh Penguins 6-3. The Capitals scored first and never trailed. The Capitals led 4-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Kevin Hayes's goal at 16:50 of the second period, which took the Penguins' chances from 13% to 31%. Expected goals favored the Capitals, 3.3 to 1.7; shots on goal were WSH 32, PIT 11. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Capitals win a replay of these chances 70% of the time. Logan Thompson stopped 8 of 11 (.727), 1.3 goals below expected; Arturs Silovs stopped 26 of 31 (.839), 2.2 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Alex Ovechkin (1 G), 2. Ilya Protas (1 G, 2 A), 3. Kevin Hayes (1 G).

Three stars

★
A. Ovechkin1 G
★★
I. Protas1 G, 2 A
★★★
K. Hayes1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WSH	011	414	27	632
PIT	01	36	04	311

Scoring

9 goals

2nd period

A. Protas(25)
I. Protas (2)
wristxG 0.11win prob +16 ptsVideo
1-0
1:39
A. Mantha(32)
R. Shea (27), T. Novak (26)
wristxG 0.01win prob +16 ptsVideo
1-1
2:05
R. Leonard(19)
P. Dubois (13), C. McMichael (31)
tip-inxG 0.28win prob +17 ptsVideo
2-1
6:02
T. Wilson(30)
I. Protas (3), A. Protas (27)
wristxG 0.14win prob +17 ptsVideo
3-1
8:08
N. Acciari(13)
E. Soderblom (6), S. Girard (16)
wristxG 0.42win prob +17 ptsVideo
3-2
11:47
R. Leonard(20)
C. Hutson (6), J. Sourdif (20)
wristxG 0.43win prob +17 ptsVideo
4-2
11:58
K. Hayes(4)
R. Shea (28)
wristxG 0.04win prob +18 ptsVideo
4-3
16:50

3rd period

I. Protas(1)PPG
C. Hutson (7), D. Strome (39)
wristxG 0.27win prob +13 ptsVideo
5-3
5:56
A. Ovechkin(32)EN
T. Wilson (31)
wristxG 0.47win prob +1 ptsVideo
6-3
16:22

Penalties

0 PIM·

4 PIM

2nd

14:43Kevin Hayes · Holdingdrawn by Ivan Miroshnichenko2 min

3rd

5:16Justin Brazeau · Hookingdrawn by Martin Fehérváry2 min
8:10Dylan Strome · Ps hooking on breakawaydrawn by Anthony Mantha0 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: PIT

Biggest swing: Kevin Hayes, 2nd 16:50 — PIT 13% → 31%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

3 G · 1.7 xG · 27 att

←

attacks

attacks →

6 G · 3.3 xG · 48 att PIT

3 G · 1.7 xG · 27 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

3.35 G
All situations: 3 G1.7; 2.34 G
Even strength: 3 G1.4; 0.41 G
Power play: 0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 75 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

70%30%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.73 – 1.71

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

32
Shots on goal: 11; 57%
Faceoffs: 43%; 1/2
Power play: 0/0; 0
Penalty minutes: 4; 17
Hits: 21; 15
Blocked shots: 16; 17
Giveaways: 18; 3
Takeaways: 3

Box score

every player line

Washington Capitals skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	FO%	TOI
6J. ChychrunD	0	0	0	+2	0	0.02	0	5	—	23:09
17D. StromeC	0	1	1	-1	2	0.04	0	0	65	20:01
57T. van RiemsdykD	0	0	0	+3	0	0.00	1	1	—	20:00
3M. RoyD	0	0	0	+1	2	0.03	1	4	—	19:53
42M. FehérváryD	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	3	0	—	19:37
44C. HutsonD	0	2	2	-1	2	0.22	2	0	—	19:02
72A. BeauvillierR	0	0	0	0	1	0.08	2	0	100	17:56
34J. SourdifC	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	2	1	60	17:54
43T. WilsonR	1	1	2	+2	4	0.30	0	1	—	16:44
21A. ProtasL	1	1	2	+1	2	0.39	0	1	50	16:24
62I. ProtasL	1	2	3	0	3	0.40	0	0	43	16:06
38R. SandinD	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	1	0	—	15:35
24C. McMichaelL	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	0	0	75	15:02
8A. OvechkinL	1	0	1	0	7	0.89	0	0	—	14:59
22B. DuhaimeL	0	0	0	0	2	0.02	1	0	—	14:42
9R. LeonardR	2	0	2	+1	3	0.75	2	1	—	14:00
63I. MiroshnichenkoL	0	0	0	0	2	0.09	2	1	—	11:54
80P. DuboisC	0	1	1	0	0	0.00	0	0	25	07:02

Washington Capitals goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
48L. Thompson(W)	11	8	3	.727	1.72	-1.28	60:00

Season series

WSH leads 2-1

Nov 63@5Final
Apr 116@3this game
Apr 120@3Final

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Washington Capitals at Pittsburgh Penguins

2nd period

3rd period

2nd

3rd

Box score