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Lightning at Senators
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
2
Ottawa Senators
▸6
FinalTV The Spot, TSN5·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 6-2. The Senators scored first and never trailed. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Fabian Zetterlund's goal at 2:45 of the third period, which took the Senators' chances from 52% to 77%. Expected goals favored the Senators, 4.8 to 1.7; shots on goal were TBL 30, OTT 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 78% of the time. Jonas Johansson stopped 26 of 31 (.839), 1.5 goals below expected; Linus Ullmark stopped 28 of 30 (.933). Three stars: 1. Jake Sanderson (2 G), 2. Brady Tkachuk (4 A), 3. Tim Stützle (1 G, 2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    J. Sanderson2 G
  2. ★★
    OTT
    B. Tkachuk4 A
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    T. Stützle1 G, 2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL01117112230
OTTOTT07112513632

Scoring

8 goals

2nd period

  1. OTT
    J. Spence(7)
    B. Tkachuk (33), T. Stützle (47)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +21 ptsVideo
    0-1
    15:46
  2. TBL
    N. Paul(7)
    C. Perry (20), N. Kucherov (84)
    backhandxG 0.18win prob +22 ptsVideo
    1-1
    18:23

3rd period

  1. OTT
    F. Zetterlund(14)
    B. Tkachuk (34), C. Crotty (1)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +25 ptsVideo
    1-2
    2:45
  2. OTT
    J. Sanderson(12)
    T. Stützle (48), B. Tkachuk (35)
    backhandxG 0.17win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-3
    4:39
  3. TBL
    C. Perry(16)
    R. McDonagh (13), N. Paul (8)
    tip-inxG 0.04win prob +12 ptsVideo
    2-3
    10:35
  4. OTT
    T. Stützle(34)PPG
    D. Cozens (29), D. Batherson (36)
    wristxG 0.23win prob +8 ptsVideo
    2-4
    12:51
  5. OTT
    J. Sanderson(13)PPG
    B. Tkachuk (36), D. Batherson (37)
    backhandxG 0.20win prob +1 ptsVideo
    2-5
    13:04
  6. OTT
    S. Pinto(22)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.92Video
    2-6
    16:41

Penalties

TBL 8 PIM·OTT 6 PIM

1st

  • 3:49OTTTim Stützle · Slashingdrawn by Charle-Edouard D'Astous2 min
  • 3:49TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous · Cross checkingdrawn by Tim Stützle2 min
  • 6:33TBLConor Geekie · Cross checkingdrawn by Tim Stützle2 min

2nd

  • 5:15OTTTim Stützle · Trippingdrawn by Nick Paul2 min

3rd

  • 12:32TBLYanni Gourde · Holding the stickdrawn by Lassi Thomson2 min
  • 12:51TBLserved by C. Perry · Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
  • 15:40OTTserved by F. Zetterlund · Too many men on the ice2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalTBL goalFinal: OTT 100%

Biggest swing: Fabian Zetterlund, 3rd 2:45 — OTT 52% → 77%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
S. Pinto · Goal · xG 0.92J. Sanderson · Missed · xG 0.39D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.35T. Stützle · Goal · xG 0.23J. Sanderson · Goal · xG 0.19B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.17J. Sanderson · Goal · xG 0.17C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.16N. Cousins · On goal · xG 0.14M. Amadio · On goal · xG 0.14B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.13B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.12R. Greig · Missed · xG 0.12D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.12R. Greig · Missed · xG 0.11J. Spence · Goal · xG 0.10T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.10W. Foegele · Missed · xG 0.09D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.09L. Eller · On goal · xG 0.08S. Pinto · On goal · xG 0.08F. Zetterlund · On goal · xG 0.08J. Sanderson · Missed · xG 0.07F. Zetterlund · Missed · xG 0.06D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.06B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.06N. Matinpalo · On goal · xG 0.05B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.05W. Foegele · Missed · xG 0.04J. Sanderson · On goal · xG 0.04D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.03J. Sanderson · Missed · xG 0.03B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.03R. Greig · On goal · xG 0.03F. Zetterlund · Goal · xG 0.02C. Crotty · On goal · xG 0.02J. Sanderson · On goal · xG 0.02T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.02L. Thomson · Missed · xG 0.01J. Sanderson · Missed · xG 0.01D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.01B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.01D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.01B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.01T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.01N. Matinpalo · On goal · xG 0.01A. Zub · Missed · xG 0.01J. Sanderson · On goal · xG 0.00C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.00C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.00J. Spence · On goal · xG 0.00
OTT6 G · 4.8 xG · 51 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsOTT
1.72 G
All situations
5 G4.8
1.62 G
Even strength
3 G2.4
0.20 G
Power play
2 G1.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 95 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL22%78%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.73 – 3.36

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsOTT
30
Shots on goal
32
61%
Faceoffs
39%
0/2
Power play
2/3
8
Penalty minutes
6
15
Hits
19
12
Blocked shots
12
18
Giveaways
11
4
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
43D. RaddyshD000-330.09100—20:42
59J. GuentzelC000-230.200006020:29
90J. MoserD000-130.02010—20:23
78E. LillebergD000+110.02000—19:55
51C. D'AstousD000010.11122—19:43
86N. KucherovR011-130.03000—19:41
81E. CernakD000010.01030—18:22
27R. McDonaghD011000.02010—18:05
21B. PointC000-140.160106117:33
37Y. GourdeC000-110.032225017:13
28Z. GirgensonsC000010.03310015:46
22O. BjorkstrandR000-220.12210—15:01
93G. GoncalvesC000+110.16000014:52
10C. PerryR112010.04100—14:17
20N. PaulL112+120.382006413:27
14C. GeekieC000-100.001028311:29
11J. PelletierL000-120.28200—10:22
53D. DukeL000-110.03000—09:22
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31J. Johansson(L)31265.8393.51-1.4958:46

Season series

OTT leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).