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Senators at Lightning
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
2
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸4
FinalTV The Spot, TVAS·Benchmark International Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Ottawa Senators 4-2. The Lightning came back from two goals down. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Emil Lilleberg's goal at 8:51 of the third period, which took the Lightning's chances from 52% to 82%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 3.6 to 3.2; shots on goal were OTT 28, TBL 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. James Reimer stopped 23 of 27 (.852), 1.3 goals below expected; Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 26 of 28 (.929), 1.2 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Charle-Edouard D'Astous (1 G, 1 A), 2. Emil Lilleberg (1 G, 2 A), 3. Brandon Hagel (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    C. D'Astous1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TBL
    E. Lilleberg1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    B. Hagel1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT2110809228
TBLTBL0821128427

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    D. Cozens(25)
    T. Kleven (15), B. Tkachuk (31)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +11 ptsVideo
    1-0
    0:18
  2. OTT
    J. Spence(5)
    N. Cousins (13), A. Zub (22)
    wristxG 0.41win prob +15 ptsVideo
    2-0
    4:25

2nd period

  1. TBL
    B. Hagel(34)
    C. D'Astous (21), E. Lilleberg (5)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-1
    3:37
  2. TBL
    C. D'Astous(5)
    Y. Gourde (18), Z. Girgensons (8)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-2
    5:14

3rd period

  1. TBL
    E. Lilleberg(3)
    B. Hagel (38), G. Goncalves (18)
    backhandxG 0.14win prob +30 ptsVideo
    2-3
    8:51
  2. TBL
    J. Guentzel(34)
    C. Perry (19), E. Lilleberg (6)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +6 ptsVideo
    2-4
    17:48

Penalties

OTT 10 PIM·TBL 6 PIM

1st

  • 9:09OTTDrake Batherson · Holdingdrawn by J.J. Moser2 min
  • 18:14OTTWarren Foegele · Holdingdrawn by Gage Goncalves2 min

2nd

  • 7:40TBLEmil Lilleberg · Interferencedrawn by Drake Batherson2 min
  • 8:09TBLAnthony Cirelli · Roughingdrawn by Drake Batherson2 min
  • 8:09OTTCarter Yakemchuk · Roughingdrawn by Erik Cernak2 min
  • 8:09OTTDylan Cozens · Roughingdrawn by Brandon Hagel2 min
  • 17:52TBLErik Cernak · Interferencedrawn by Nick Cousins2 min
  • 19:23OTTBrady Tkachuk · Cross checkingdrawn by Zemgus Girgensons2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalOTT goalFinal: TBL 100%

Biggest swing: Emil Lilleberg, 3rd 8:51 — TBL 52% → 82%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
P. Holmberg · Missed · xG 0.53B. Hagel · Missed · xG 0.33D. Raddysh · On goal · xG 0.17E. Lilleberg · Goal · xG 0.15Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.13B. Hagel · Goal · xG 0.13Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.13J. Guentzel · Goal · xG 0.12B. Point · Missed · xG 0.12G. Goncalves · Missed · xG 0.11B. Hagel · Missed · xG 0.11J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.11B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.10G. Goncalves · Missed · xG 0.09B. Hagel · Missed · xG 0.09C. Perry · On goal · xG 0.08P. Holmberg · Missed · xG 0.07B. Hagel · Missed · xG 0.07B. Hagel · Missed · xG 0.07C. Perry · Missed · xG 0.07D. Raddysh · Missed · xG 0.06E. Cernak · Missed · xG 0.06S. Sabourin · On goal · xG 0.06C. Perry · Missed · xG 0.06C. D'Astous · Goal · xG 0.05C. Perry · On goal · xG 0.04B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.04C. Perry · On goal · xG 0.04J. Guentzel · Missed · xG 0.03D. Raddysh · Missed · xG 0.03J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.03Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.03C. Perry · On goal · xG 0.03Y. Gourde · Missed · xG 0.03G. Goncalves · On goal · xG 0.03D. Raddysh · Missed · xG 0.02Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.02D. Raddysh · Missed · xG 0.02S. Sabourin · Missed · xG 0.02D. Raddysh · On goal · xG 0.02D. Raddysh · On goal · xG 0.02B. Hagel · Missed · xG 0.01J. Moser · On goal · xG 0.01D. Raddysh · Missed · xG 0.01D. Raddysh · Missed · xG 0.01B. Point · Missed · xG 0.01G. Goncalves · On goal · xG 0.01R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.01G. Goncalves · On goal · xG 0.01B. Hagel · Missed · xG 0.00J. Moser · Missed · xG 0.00J. Moser · On goal · xG 0.00D. Raddysh · On goal · xG 0.00
TBL4 G · 3.6 xG · 53 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsTBL
3.22 G
All situations
4 G3.6
2.52 G
Even strength
4 G2.3
0.70 G
Power play
0 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 93 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT54%46%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.96 – 2.73

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsTBL
28
Shots on goal
27
55%
Faceoffs
45%
0/2
Power play
0/4
10
Penalty minutes
6
23
Hits
21
24
Blocked shots
12
18
Giveaways
15
7
Takeaways
1

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
43T. KlevenD011-110.10340—27:04
2A. ZubD011-110.06030—24:02
10J. SpenceD101040.52120—22:41
18T. StützleC000-230.274006721:41
19D. BathersonR000-120.64312—18:51
12S. PintoC000000.002204217:03
7B. TkachukL011030.552125016:55
33N. MatinpaloD000030.04120—16:41
22M. AmadioR000+110.23020—15:19
71R. GreigC000-100.0501010015:13
24D. CozensC101010.153026015:03
28C. GirouxR000-220.110205514:53
58C. YakemchukD000-200.00002—13:58
60L. ThomsonD000000.01120—11:24
20F. ZetterlundL000-120.06100—11:13
21N. CousinsC011+130.36110011:05
37W. FoegeleL000-120.05102—10:47
89L. EllerC000000.000104609:49
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
47J. Reimer(L)27234.8522.73-1.2758:18

Season series

OTT leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).