Jets at Blue Jackets 2-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Winnipeg Jets

▸2

Columbus Blue Jackets

FinalTV FDSNOH, SNW·Nationwide Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Winnipeg Jets beat the Columbus Blue Jackets 2-1. The Blue Jackets scored first; the Jets answered. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Kyle Connor's goal at 10:58 of the third period, which took the Jets' chances from 48% to 82%. Expected goals were close — WPG 2.3, CBJ 2.2; shots on goal were WPG 26, CBJ 16. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Jets win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Connor Hellebuyck stopped 15 of 16 (.938), 1.2 goals saved above expected; Jet Greaves stopped 24 of 26 (.923). Three stars: 1. Kyle Connor (2 G), 2. Mark Scheifele (2 A), 3. Jet Greaves (24 saves, .923).

Three stars

★
K. Connor2 G
★★
M. Scheifele2 A
★★★
J. Greaves24 saves, .923

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
WPG	09	19	18	226
CBJ	15	03	08	116

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

I. Provorov(9)
M. Marchment (23), K. Marchenko (38)
snapxG 0.19win prob +11 ptsVideo
0-1
1:17

2nd period

K. Connor(35)
M. Scheifele (59), N. Pionk (8)
wristxG 0.12win prob +22 ptsVideo
1-1
18:14

3rd period

K. Connor(36)
M. Scheifele (60)
wristxG 0.07win prob +34 ptsVideo
2-1
10:58

Penalties

2 PIM·

2 PIM

2nd

10:53Danton Heinen · Trippingdrawn by Gabriel Vilardi2 min

3rd

19:51Mark Scheifele · Trippingdrawn by Kirill Marchenko2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: CBJ

Biggest swing: Kyle Connor, 3rd 10:58 — WPG 48% → 82%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 2.2 xG · 36 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 2.3 xG · 39 att CBJ

1 G · 2.2 xG · 36 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.32 G
All situations: 1 G2.2; 2.32 G
Even strength: 1 G2.0; 0.00 G
Power play: 0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 75 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

51%49%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.24 – 2.18

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

26
Shots on goal: 16; 27%
Faceoffs: 73%; 0/1
Power play: 0/1; 2
Penalty minutes: 2; 28
Hits: 16; 12
Blocked shots: 16; 17
Giveaways: 11; 3
Takeaways: 3

Box score

every player line

Winnipeg Jets skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
44J. MorrisseyD	0	0	0	0	2	0.14	0	0	0	—	25:23
54D. SambergD	0	0	0	0	1	0.05	1	3	0	—	25:08
4N. PionkD	0	1	1	0	2	0.06	2	0	0	—	23:56
55M. ScheifeleC	0	2	2	+2	1	0.29	1	0	2	27	22:39
2D. DeMeloD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.02	3	2	0	—	22:08
81K. ConnorL	2	0	2	+2	2	0.27	1	0	0	—	21:27
9A. IafalloL	0	0	0	+2	3	0.27	4	1	0	—	19:45
13G. VilardiC	0	0	0	-1	3	0.12	1	0	0	0	17:30
91C. PerfettiC	0	0	0	-1	2	0.13	2	1	0	0	15:49
17A. LowryC	0	0	0	-1	1	0.32	1	0	0	50	13:50
36M. BarronC	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	2	0	0	0	12:59
78J. BrysonD	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	0	0	0	—	12:08
45C. KoepkeL	0	0	0	0	3	0.09	2	2	0	—	11:55
25P. FordC	0	0	0	0	0	0.29	2	0	0	0	11:53
27I. RosenR	0	0	0	0	0	0.02	2	0	0	—	11:40
93B. LambertC	0	0	0	0	3	0.09	4	0	0	0	11:30
19J. ToewsC	0	0	0	0	0	0.05	0	0	0	0	10:49
24H. FleuryD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	0	3	0	—	09:24

Winnipeg Jets goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
37C. Hellebuyck(W)	16	15	1	.938	2.20	+1.20	59:58

Season series

WPG leads 2-0

Nov 182@5Final
Apr 42@1this game

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Winnipeg Jets at Columbus Blue Jackets

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

2nd

3rd

Box score