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Islanders at Sabres
NHL

New York Islanders at Buffalo Sabres

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New York Islanders
3
Buffalo Sabres
▸4
FinalTV MSG-B, MSGSN2·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the New York Islanders 4-3. The Sabres scored first and never trailed. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Peyton Krebs's goal at 16:59 of the third period, which took the Sabres' chances from 52% to 93%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 4.1 to 2.1; shots on goal were NYI 28, BUF 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 69% of the time. Ilya Sorokin stopped 29 of 32 (.906); Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 25 of 28 (.893), 0.9 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Peyton Krebs (1 G), 2. Jack Quinn (1 G, 1 A), 3. Josh Norris (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    P. Krebs1 G
  2. ★★
    BUF
    J. Quinn1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    J. Norris2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NYINYI0619213328
BUFBUF11207314433

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    J. Quinn(18)PPG
    J. Norris (16)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +10 ptsVideo
    0-1
    14:19

2nd period

  1. NYI
    C. Ritchie(12)PPG
    B. Schenn (21), B. Horvat (23)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-1
    17:57

3rd period

  1. BUF
    T. Thompson(38)PPG
    J. Norris (17), J. Quinn (31)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +25 ptsVideo
    1-2
    2:40
  2. NYI
    A. Lee(18)
    B. Horvat (24), M. Schaefer (35)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +35 ptsVideo
    2-2
    13:39
  3. BUF
    P. Krebs(11)
    A. Tuch (31), T. Thompson (40)
    snapxG 0.15win prob +42 ptsVideo
    2-3
    16:59
  4. BUF
    B. Byram(11)EN
    M. Samuelsson (28)
    wristxG 0.54win prob +4 ptsVideo
    2-4
    18:17
  5. NYI
    B. Schenn(17)
    M. Barzal (49), B. Horvat (25)
    wristxG 0.08Video
    3-4
    19:59

Penalties

NYI 15 PIM·BUF 13 PIM

1st

  • 0:41NYICarson Soucy · High stickingdrawn by Zach Benson2 min
  • 1:31BUFJosh Norris · Interferencedrawn by Matthew Schaefer2 min
  • 13:58NYIAdam Pelech · High stickingdrawn by Josh Doan2 min

2nd

  • 2:18NYICasey Cizikas · High stickingdrawn by Bowen Byram2 min
  • 6:34BUFOwen Power · Ps slash on breakawaydrawn by Anders Lee0 min
  • 17:41BUFMattias Samuelsson · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

3rd

  • 0:01NYIAnders Lee · Fightingdrawn by Sam Carrick5 min
  • 0:01BUFSam Carrick · Fightingdrawn by Anders Lee5 min
  • 1:28NYICarson Soucy · Hookingdrawn by Tage Thompson2 min
  • 8:45BUFJosh Norris · Roughingdrawn by Scott Mayfield2 min
  • 8:45NYIScott Mayfield · Roughingdrawn by Josh Norris2 min
  • 8:45BUFJosh Norris · Roughingdrawn by Scott Mayfield2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalNYI goalFinal: BUF 100%

Biggest swing: Peyton Krebs, 3rd 16:59 — BUF 52% → 93%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Byram · Goal · xG 0.54R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.21T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.20A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.17R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.16R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.15Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.15P. Krebs · Goal · xG 0.15M. Samuelsson · Missed · xG 0.14T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.13S. Carrick · On goal · xG 0.13J. Doan · On goal · xG 0.13J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.12T. Thompson · Goal · xG 0.11B. Malenstyn · On goal · xG 0.10J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.09J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.09B. Byram · Missed · xG 0.08Z. Benson · Missed · xG 0.08O. Power · Missed · xG 0.07T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.07J. Quinn · Goal · xG 0.07B. Malenstyn · On goal · xG 0.06B. Byram · On goal · xG 0.06T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.06Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.06B. Byram · Missed · xG 0.05J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.05R. McLeod · Missed · xG 0.05J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.05J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.04R. McLeod · Missed · xG 0.04J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.04R. McLeod · On goal · xG 0.04O. Power · On goal · xG 0.03Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.03Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.03L. Stanley · Missed · xG 0.03T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.03L. Stanley · Missed · xG 0.02T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.02R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.02T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.02A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.02B. Byram · Missed · xG 0.01B. Byram · Missed · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.01M. Samuelsson · On goal · xG 0.01R. McLeod · On goal · xG 0.01Z. Metsa · On goal · xG 0.01Z. Metsa · Missed · xG 0.01L. Stanley · On goal · xG 0.01J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.00J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF4 G · 4.1 xG · 54 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NYIvsBUF
2.13 G
All situations
3 G4.1
1.02 G
Even strength
1 G2.6
1.11 G
Power play
2 G0.6
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 91 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NYI31%69%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.08 – 3.18

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NYIvsBUF
28
Shots on goal
33
54%
Faceoffs
46%
1/3
Power play
2/4
15
Penalty minutes
13
26
Hits
25
10
Blocked shots
15
12
Giveaways
19
6
Takeaways
1

Box score

every player line
New York Islanders skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
48M. SchaeferD011040.34010—29:40
14B. HorvatC033030.331005221:22
3A. PelechD000020.12122—21:17
13M. BarzalC011030.10000020:24
4C. SoucyD000-100.00004—19:22
6R. PulockD000+120.02020—19:17
10B. SchennC112010.193005718:54
64C. RitchieC101010.16000016:33
51E. HeinemanL000010.00210—15:21
44J. PageauC000010.052005615:19
27A. LeeL101+120.29405—14:10
53C. CizikasC000010.013025613:17
34A. BoqvistD000030.19000—13:02
32K. MacLeanC000000.0650010012:18
24S. MayfieldD000000.00112—12:01
81O. PalatL000-120.14110—11:42
11A. DuclairL000000.00000—11:29
16M. GatcombC000020.09320011:07
New York Islanders goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
30I. Sorokin(L)32293.9063.20+0.2057:52

Season series

BUF leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).