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Buffalo Sabres at New York Islanders

FinalTV MSG-B, MSGSN·UBS Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the New York Islanders 5-0. The Sabres scored first and never trailed. The Sabres led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Tage Thompson's goal at 19:47 of the second period, which took the Sabres' chances from 71% to 88%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 2.8 to 2.5; shots on goal were BUF 21, NYI 26. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Islanders win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Alex Lyon stopped 26 of 26 (1.000), 2.5 goals saved above expected; David Rittich stopped 16 of 20 (.800), 1.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Alex Lyon (26 saves, 1.000), 2. Jason Zucker (2 G), 3. Tage Thompson (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    A. Lyon26 saves, 1.000
  2. ★★
    BUF
    J. Zucker2 G
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    T. Thompson1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF062738521
NYINYI0130706026

Scoring

5 goals

2nd period

  1. BUF
    J. Quinn (19), R. McLeod (22)
    snapxG 0.15win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-0
    0:33
  2. BUF
    snapxG 0.18win prob +18 ptsVideo
    2-0
    19:47

3rd period

  1. BUF
    snapxG 0.32win prob +8 ptsVideo
    3-0
    0:25
  2. BUF
    wristxG 0.50Video
    4-0
    14:02
  3. BUF
    deflectedxG 0.07Video
    5-0
    14:38

Penalties

BUF 8 PIM·NYI 6 PIM

1st

  • 11:17BUFAlex Lyon · Hookingdrawn by Mathew Barzal2 min

2nd

  • 1:18NYIAnders Lee · Trippingdrawn by Konsta Helenius2 min
  • 11:46NYIMatthew Schaefer · Hookingdrawn by Noah Ostlund2 min
  • 14:57BUFMattias Samuelsson · Holdingdrawn by Mathew Barzal2 min

3rd

  • 15:24BUFMichael Kesselring · Cross checkingdrawn by Jean-Gabriel Pageau2 min
  • 17:53BUFZach Benson · Slashingdrawn by Scott Mayfield2 min
  • 17:53NYIScott Mayfield · Cross checkingdrawn by Zach Benson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NYI goalBUF goalFinal: NYI 0%

Biggest swing: Tage Thompson, 2nd 19:47 — BUF 71% → 88%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Lee · Missed · xG 0.23B. Horvat · On goal · xG 0.21S. Holmstrom · On goal · xG 0.16T. DeAngelo · On goal · xG 0.14A. Boqvist · Missed · xG 0.13B. Horvat · Missed · xG 0.12E. Heineman · Missed · xG 0.11M. Shabanov · On goal · xG 0.11M. Schaefer · On goal · xG 0.09E. Heineman · On goal · xG 0.08E. Heineman · On goal · xG 0.08C. Cizikas · On goal · xG 0.08A. Lee · Missed · xG 0.07A. Duclair · Missed · xG 0.07B. Horvat · On goal · xG 0.06E. Heineman · On goal · xG 0.06C. Ritchie · On goal · xG 0.05M. Barzal · Missed · xG 0.05A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.05A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.05A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.04J. Drouin · Missed · xG 0.04T. DeAngelo · Missed · xG 0.04K. MacLean · On goal · xG 0.04E. Heineman · On goal · xG 0.04B. Horvat · On goal · xG 0.03B. Horvat · On goal · xG 0.03S. Mayfield · Missed · xG 0.03A. Lee · Missed · xG 0.03T. DeAngelo · On goal · xG 0.02A. Pelech · On goal · xG 0.02C. Ritchie · On goal · xG 0.02C. Ritchie · On goal · xG 0.02A. Lee · Missed · xG 0.02J. Pageau · On goal · xG 0.01S. Mayfield · On goal · xG 0.01T. DeAngelo · Missed · xG 0.01A. Pelech · Missed · xG 0.01E. Heineman · On goal · xG 0.01E. Heineman · On goal · xG 0.01S. Holmstrom · Missed · xG 0.01
NYI0 G · 2.5 xG · 41 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsNYI
2.84 G
All situations
0 G2.5
2.34 G
Even strength
0 G1.6
0.00 G
Power play
0 G0.4
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 73 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF47%53%NYI

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.31 – 2.49

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsNYI
21
Shots on goal
26
26%
Faceoffs
74%
0/2
Power play
0/3
8
Penalty minutes
6
16
Hits
24
11
Blocked shots
13
14
Giveaways
16
7
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
26R. DahlinD101+430.83200—24:44
25O. PowerD000010.08010—24:30
23M. SamuelssonD022+410.02212—21:32
4B. ByramD000+120.10000—21:18
71R. McLeodC022+210.100002118:14
89A. TuchR101+210.12020—17:57
6Z. BensonL011+100.00202—17:32
72T. ThompsonC101+130.502003817:06
86N. OstlundC000000.130101716:56
91J. DoanR000+200.00010—15:19
8M. KesselringD011+110.04032—13:45
17J. ZuckerL202+230.510203313:44
22J. QuinnR011+220.22000—13:12
19P. KrebsC011+200.002002012:44
29B. MalenstynL000000.00200—12:26
94K. HeleniusC000020.1820010011:03
73Z. MetsaD000010.01000—10:14
48T. KozakC000+100.002003309:44
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
34A. Lyon(W)262601.0002.50+2.5060:00

Season series

BUF leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).