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Maple Leafs at Ducks
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Anaheim Ducks

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸5
Anaheim Ducks
4
Final/OTTV Victory+, KCOP-13·Honda Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Anaheim Ducks 5-4 in overtime, John Tavares scoring at 4:55. The Maple Leafs came back from two goals down. The Ducks led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was John Tavares's goal at 4:55 of overtime, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals were close — TOR 4.0, ANA 4.1; shots on goal were TOR 29, ANA 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Ducks win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Anthony Stolarz stopped 28 of 32 (.875); Ville Husso stopped 24 of 29 (.828), 1.0 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Leo Carlsson (2 G), 2. William Nylander (1 G, 3 A), 3. John Tavares (2 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    ANA
    L. Carlsson2 G
  2. ★★
    TOR
    W. Nylander1 G, 3 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    J. Tavares2 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
TORTOR190103713529
ANAANA291121803432

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. ANA
    L. Carlsson(25)
    T. Terry (36), O. Zellweger (14)
    snapxG 0.17win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    6:43
  2. ANA
    C. Gauthier(38)PPG
    M. Granlund (16), C. Kreider (25)
    snapxG 0.03win prob +14 ptsVideo
    0-2
    9:46
  3. TOR
    J. Tavares(27)PPG
    W. Nylander (43), O. Ekman-Larsson (29)
    snapxG 0.31win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-2
    14:18

2nd period

  1. ANA
    J. Carlson(11)
    J. LaCombe (43), B. Sennecke (35)
    snapxG 0.09win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-3
    11:33

3rd period

  1. TOR
    M. Knies(21)PPG
    W. Nylander (44), O. Ekman-Larsson (30)
    snapxG 0.05win prob +11 ptsVideo
    2-3
    6:55
  2. TOR
    W. Nylander(26)
    E. Cowan (14)
    snapxG 0.15win prob +31 ptsVideo
    3-3
    10:14
  3. TOR
    M. Rielly(10)
    W. Nylander (45), J. Tavares (36)
    snapxG 0.16win prob +48 ptsVideo
    4-3
    17:00
  4. ANA
    L. Carlsson(26)
    J. Trouba (23), J. LaCombe (44)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +46 ptsVideo
    4-4
    18:21

Overtime

  1. TOR
    J. Tavares(28)
    M. Rielly (25), E. Cowan (15)
    tip-inxG 0.28win prob +51 ptsVideo
    5-4
    4:55

Penalties

TOR 66 PIM·ANA 32 PIM

1st

  • 0:03ANARadko Gudas · Fightingdrawn by Max Domi5 min
  • 0:03TORMax Domi · Fightingdrawn by Radko Gudas5 min
  • 1:16TORJake McCabe · Trippingdrawn by Alex Killorn2 min
  • 1:16TORMatthew Knies · Roughingdrawn by Beckett Sennecke2 min
  • 8:56ANAPavel Mintyukov · Roughingdrawn by Easton Cowan2 min
  • 8:56TOREaston Cowan · Roughingdrawn by Pavel Mintyukov2 min
  • 8:56TORWilliam Nylander · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Ville Husso2 min
  • 13:31ANAJeffrey Viel · Cross checkingdrawn by Calle Jarnkrok2 min

2nd

  • 2:49TORMichael Pezzetta · Roughingdrawn by Radko Gudas2 min
  • 2:49TORMichael Pezzetta · Misconduct10 min
  • 2:49TORMichael Pezzetta · Game misconduct10 min
  • 9:04TORMax Domi · Fightingdrawn by Pavel Mintyukov5 min
  • 9:04ANAPavel Mintyukov · Fightingdrawn by Max Domi5 min
  • 9:04TORMax Domi · Aggressor10 min
  • 10:30TORJake McCabe · Roughingdrawn by Radko Gudas2 min
  • 10:30ANARadko Gudas · Roughingdrawn by Jake McCabe2 min
  • 10:30TORJake McCabe · Roughingdrawn by Radko Gudas2 min
  • 10:30ANARadko Gudas · Misconduct10 min
  • 10:30TORJake McCabe · Misconduct10 min
  • 11:07ANALeo Carlsson · Trippingdrawn by Simon Benoit2 min
  • 14:13ANAChris Kreider · Hookingdrawn by Bo Groulx2 min

3rd

  • 6:20ANARyan Poehling · High stickingdrawn by Morgan Rielly2 min
  • 14:46TORserved by Easton Cowan · Too many men on the ice2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
ANA goalTOR goalFinal: ANA 0%

Biggest swing: John Tavares, OT 4:55 — TOR 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Sennecke · Missed · xG 0.28L. Carlsson · On goal · xG 0.19M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.18I. Moore · On goal · xG 0.17J. Carlson · On goal · xG 0.17L. Carlsson · Goal · xG 0.17T. Washe · On goal · xG 0.17J. Viel · On goal · xG 0.16J. Carlson · Missed · xG 0.15M. Granlund · Missed · xG 0.13L. Carlsson · Missed · xG 0.13B. Sennecke · Missed · xG 0.13C. Kreider · On goal · xG 0.12O. Zellweger · Missed · xG 0.12B. Sennecke · On goal · xG 0.12J. Viel · On goal · xG 0.11T. Terry · On goal · xG 0.11C. Kreider · On goal · xG 0.10C. Gauthier · Missed · xG 0.09L. Carlsson · Goal · xG 0.09J. Carlson · Goal · xG 0.09R. Poehling · On goal · xG 0.08M. Granlund · Missed · xG 0.08M. Granlund · Missed · xG 0.08C. Gauthier · Missed · xG 0.08M. Granlund · Missed · xG 0.07T. Terry · On goal · xG 0.07M. Granlund · Missed · xG 0.07J. LaCombe · Missed · xG 0.06J. Carlson · On goal · xG 0.05T. Washe · Missed · xG 0.04J. Trouba · Missed · xG 0.04P. Mintyukov · On goal · xG 0.04J. Viel · On goal · xG 0.03C. Gauthier · Goal · xG 0.03B. Sennecke · Missed · xG 0.02B. Sennecke · Missed · xG 0.02C. Kreider · Missed · xG 0.02B. Sennecke · On goal · xG 0.02J. Carlson · Missed · xG 0.02C. Kreider · Missed · xG 0.02J. Trouba · On goal · xG 0.02J. LaCombe · Missed · xG 0.02J. LaCombe · On goal · xG 0.01I. Moore · On goal · xG 0.01M. Granlund · Missed · xG 0.01J. Viel · On goal · xG 0.01J. Trouba · Missed · xG 0.01C. Kreider · On goal · xG 0.01B. Sennecke · Missed · xG 0.01L. Carlsson · On goal · xG 0.01J. Trouba · On goal · xG 0.01A. Killorn · Missed · xG 0.01P. Mintyukov · On goal · xG 0.01J. Carlson · Missed · xG 0.01B. Sennecke · On goal · xG 0.01J. Carlson · On goal · xG 0.00R. Poehling · On goal · xG 0.00
ANA4 G · 4.1 xG · 58 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsANA
4.05 G
All situations
4 G4.1
2.73 G
Even strength
3 G2.8
1.22 G
Power play
1 G1.3
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 104 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR49%51%ANA

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.98 – 4.06

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsANA
29
Shots on goal
32
43%
Faceoffs
57%
2/4
Power play
1/6
66
Penalty minutes
32
28
Hits
15
15
Blocked shots
10
15
Giveaways
23
4
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
88W. NylanderR134080.86002—23:35
44M. RiellyD112+220.23120—23:10
25B. CarloD000010.01010—21:50
91J. TavaresC213+141.043006021:04
22J. McCabeD000-210.192316—20:09
28T. StecherD000-300.00010—20:06
29B. GroulxC000020.163102919:34
23M. KniesL101-210.28402—19:11
53E. CowanR022+330.50112—19:08
95O. Ekman-LarssonD022+120.18030—18:32
2S. BenoitD000+120.05420—17:02
19C. JarnkrokC000010.080006716:51
81D. JoshuaC000000.24500014:20
89N. RobertsonL000010.11000—14:14
63M. MaccelliL000-100.00000—12:48
26J. QuillanC000010.071002012:19
11M. DomiC000-100.0001205007:06
61M. PezzettaL000000.004022—03:06
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41A. Stolarz(W)32284.8754.08+0.0864:45

Season series

TOR leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).