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Predators at Lightning
NHL

Nashville Predators at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
2
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸3
FinalTV FDSNSO, The Spot·Benchmark International Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Nashville Predators 3-2. The lead changed hands 2 times. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Corey Perry's goal at 6:52 of the third period, which took the Lightning's chances from 52% to 80%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 3.8 to 2.5; shots on goal were NSH 31, TBL 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 70% of the time. Justus Annunen stopped 25 of 28 (.893), 0.8 goals saved above expected; Jonas Johansson stopped 29 of 31 (.935), 0.5 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Jake Guentzel (1 G, 2 A), 2. Brandon Hagel (1 G), 3. Jonas Johansson (29 saves, .935).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    J. Guentzel1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    TBL
    B. Hagel1 G
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    J. Johansson29 saves, .935

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NSHNSH01018113231
TBLTBL01111216328

Scoring

5 goals

2nd period

  1. NSH
    J. Kemell(1)
    F. Forsberg (33), J. Barron (8)
    deflectedxG 0.20win prob +18 ptsVideo
    1-0
    8:31
  2. TBL
    J. Guentzel(35)
    D. Raddysh (46), C. D'Astous (22)
    wristxG 0.19win prob +19 ptsVideo
    1-1
    13:32

3rd period

  1. TBL
    B. Hagel(35)
    J. Guentzel (44)
    snapxG 0.26win prob +26 ptsVideo
    1-2
    4:33
  2. NSH
    F. Forsberg(34)
    F. Svechkov (13), A. Wilsby (12)
    tip-inxG 0.05win prob +26 ptsVideo
    2-2
    4:53
  3. TBL
    C. Perry(15)
    J. Guentzel (45), E. Lilleberg (7)
    snapxG 0.56win prob +28 ptsVideo
    2-3
    6:52

Penalties

NSH 8 PIM·TBL 18 PIM

1st

  • 1:28NSHErik Haula · Holdingdrawn by Emil Lilleberg2 min
  • 7:59TBLJake Guentzel · Trippingdrawn by Filip Forsberg2 min
  • 17:23TBLScott Sabourin · Slashingdrawn by Jonathan Marchessault2 min

2nd

  • 5:47NSHLuke Evangelista · Hookingdrawn by Ryan McDonagh2 min
  • 11:17NSHSteven Stamkos · High stickingdrawn by Jake Guentzel2 min
  • 19:01TBLDarren Raddysh · Interferencedrawn by Zachary L'Heureux2 min

3rd

  • 2:02NSHMatthew Wood · Holdingdrawn by Pontus Holmberg2 min
  • 11:15TBLErik Cernak · Boardingdrawn by Ryan O'Reilly2 min
  • 11:15TBLErik Cernak · Abuse of officials10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalNSH goalFinal: TBL 100%

Biggest swing: Corey Perry, 3rd 6:52 — TBL 52% → 80%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Perry · Goal · xG 0.56B. Point · On goal · xG 0.31B. Hagel · Goal · xG 0.26B. Point · On goal · xG 0.21J. Guentzel · Goal · xG 0.19B. Hagel · Missed · xG 0.14B. Point · Missed · xG 0.13A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.12B. Hagel · Missed · xG 0.11C. Perry · Missed · xG 0.10P. Holmberg · On goal · xG 0.10J. Guentzel · Missed · xG 0.10P. Holmberg · On goal · xG 0.10B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.09B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.09J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.09A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.08J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.07J. Guentzel · Missed · xG 0.06B. Hagel · Missed · xG 0.06A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.06N. Paul · Missed · xG 0.06B. Hagel · Missed · xG 0.06P. Holmberg · Missed · xG 0.06B. Hagel · Missed · xG 0.05Z. Girgensons · Missed · xG 0.05B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.05B. Hagel · Missed · xG 0.05O. Bjorkstrand · Missed · xG 0.04G. Goncalves · On goal · xG 0.04C. D'Astous · Missed · xG 0.03D. Raddysh · On goal · xG 0.03N. Paul · Missed · xG 0.03B. Hagel · Missed · xG 0.02E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.02B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.02B. Point · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.02Y. Gourde · Missed · xG 0.02B. Point · On goal · xG 0.02E. Lilleberg · On goal · xG 0.01J. Guentzel · Missed · xG 0.01Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.01Y. Gourde · Missed · xG 0.01J. Moser · On goal · xG 0.01N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.01C. D'Astous · Missed · xG 0.01J. Moser · On goal · xG 0.01E. Lilleberg · Missed · xG 0.00C. Perry · On goal · xG 0.00
TBL3 G · 3.8 xG · 50 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsTBL
2.52 G
All situations
3 G3.8
1.62 G
Even strength
3 G2.8
0.90 G
Power play
0 G0.8
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 95 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH30%70%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.47 – 3.66

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsTBL
31
Shots on goal
28
54%
Faceoffs
46%
0/4
Power play
0/4
8
Penalty minutes
18
19
Hits
18
12
Blocked shots
13
15
Giveaways
13
3
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
59R. JosiD000-340.10020—27:05
90R. O'ReillyC000-110.010206524:29
76B. SkjeiD000-100.07320—22:46
9F. ForsbergL112+240.62110—19:37
91S. StamkosC000-120.220129017:17
81J. MarchessaultR000020.46200—17:16
41N. HagueD000-230.08110—17:05
17T. JostC000-210.01000016:39
77L. EvangelistaR000-120.02002—14:57
83A. WilsbyD011+210.12100—14:57
40F. SvechkovC011+120.041002514:55
48N. PerbixD000010.02110—14:48
68Z. L'HeureuxL000-140.40100—14:24
20J. BarronD011+210.03120—14:22
56E. HaulaL000-110.003023314:05
71M. WoodR000-100.07102—13:42
25J. KemellR101+220.24100—08:16
49R. SchaeferL000000.00200—06:26
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
29J. Annunen(L)28253.8933.77+0.7758:54

Season series

TBL leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).