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Lightning at Predators
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸5
Nashville Predators
2
FinalTV FDSNSO, The Spot·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Nashville Predators 5-2. The Lightning scored first and never trailed. The Lightning led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Charle-Edouard D'Astous's goal at 7:58 of the third period, which took the Lightning's chances from 77% to 94%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 5.6 to 2.1; shots on goal were TBL 32, NSH 20. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 72% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 18 of 20 (.900); Juuse Saros stopped 27 of 31 (.871), 0.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Charle-Edouard D'Astous (1 G), 2. Brady Skjei (1 A), 3. Zemgus Girgensons (2 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    C. D'Astous1 G
  2. ★★
    NSH
    B. Skjei1 A
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    Z. Girgensons2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL11311336532
NSHNSH080329220

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    Z. Girgensons(1)
    P. Holmberg (3), Y. Gourde (1)
    snapxG 0.16win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-0
    10:31

2nd period

  1. TBL
    B. Hagel(2)
    A. Cirelli (3)
    wristxG 0.40win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-0
    15:37

3rd period

  1. NSH
    L. Evangelista(1)PPG
    E. Haula (3), B. Skjei (3)
    wristxG 0.25win prob +15 ptsVideo
    2-1
    5:05
  2. TBL
    C. D'Astous(1)
    B. Point (6), N. Kucherov (6)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +17 ptsVideo
    3-1
    7:58
  3. NSH
    F. Forsberg(4)
    L. Evangelista (5), E. Haula (4)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +5 ptsVideo
    3-2
    17:54
  4. TBL
    N. Kucherov(4)EN
    B. Hagel (5), A. Cirelli (4)
    wristxG 0.93win prob +3 ptsVideo
    4-2
    19:07
  5. TBL
    Z. Girgensons(2)
    P. Holmberg (4), E. Cernak (2)
    wristxG 0.19Video
    5-2
    19:33

Penalties

TBL 10 PIM·NSH 12 PIM

1st

  • 1:32TBLBrayden Point · Trippingdrawn by Filip Forsberg2 min
  • 3:49NSHAdam Wilsby · Interferencedrawn by Brandon Hagel2 min
  • 17:28NSHErik Haula · Slashingdrawn by Nikita Kucherov2 min

2nd

  • 13:29NSHSpencer Stastney · Slashingdrawn by Pontus Holmberg2 min
  • 19:15NSHserved by L. Evangelista · Too many men on the ice2 min

3rd

  • 3:00TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous · Roughingdrawn by Michael Bunting2 min
  • 3:00NSHMichael Bunting · Slashingdrawn by Charle-Edouard D'Astous2 min
  • 3:45TBLDominic James · Slashingdrawn by Luke Evangelista2 min
  • 9:50TBLErik Cernak · Holding the stickdrawn by Filip Forsberg2 min
  • 15:47NSHFilip Forsberg · Roughingdrawn by J.J. Moser2 min
  • 15:47TBLJ.J. Moser · Roughingdrawn by Filip Forsberg2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalTBL goalFinal: NSH 0%

Biggest swing: Charle-Edouard D'Astous, 3rd 7:58 — TBL 77% → 94%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Wood · On goal · xG 0.30L. Evangelista · Goal · xG 0.25J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.18N. Perbix · On goal · xG 0.17M. Wood · On goal · xG 0.11S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.11J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.10B. Skjei · Missed · xG 0.10F. Forsberg · Goal · xG 0.10S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.10E. Haula · On goal · xG 0.07E. Haula · On goal · xG 0.07J. Marchessault · Missed · xG 0.05L. Evangelista · Missed · xG 0.04L. Evangelista · On goal · xG 0.04E. Haula · Missed · xG 0.04J. Barron · Missed · xG 0.04S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.04B. Skjei · On goal · xG 0.04O. Wiesblatt · On goal · xG 0.03J. Marchessault · On goal · xG 0.03B. Skjei · On goal · xG 0.02S. Stastney · Missed · xG 0.02E. Haula · On goal · xG 0.02B. Skjei · On goal · xG 0.01C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.00
NSH2 G · 2.1 xG · 26 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsNSH
5.64 G
All situations
2 G2.1
2.74 G
Even strength
1 G0.3
0.80 G
Power play
1 G1.7
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 71 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL72%28%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.24 – 2.00

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsNSH
32
Shots on goal
20
34%
Faceoffs
66%
0/4
Power play
1/3
10
Penalty minutes
12
16
Hits
24
15
Blocked shots
5
10
Giveaways
15
3
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
38B. HagelL112+241.25010—23:55
27R. McDonaghD000+110.04120—21:51
71A. CirelliC022+211.010103821:30
77V. HedmanD000020.08110—21:14
86N. KucherovR112+241.04010—19:57
81E. CernakD011+110.02602—18:26
90J. MoserD000010.11122—18:15
21B. PointC011+110.370025017:30
59J. GuentzelC000010.040003317:13
51C. D'AstousD101+320.18012—17:11
78E. LillebergD000+110.03100—16:06
37Y. GourdeC011+210.000204014:32
28Z. GirgensonsC202+120.401105013:14
17D. JamesC000+140.27102012:32
22O. BjorkstrandR000010.07100—11:48
29P. HolmbergR022+230.42120—11:38
93G. GoncalvesC000+110.18110009:22
42C. DouglasC000010.05100004:37
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(W)20182.9002.07+0.0759:49

Season series

TBL leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).