Stars at Islanders 1-2 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Dallas Stars

New York Islanders

▸2

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Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the Dallas Stars 2-1. The Islanders scored first and never trailed. The Islanders led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Calum Ritchie's goal at 2:19 of the third period, which took the Islanders' chances from 77% to 92%. Expected goals favored the Islanders, 3.3 to 2.7; shots on goal were DAL 27, NYI 25. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Islanders win a replay of these chances 59% of the time. Jake Oettinger stopped 23 of 25 (.920), 1.3 goals saved above expected; Ilya Sorokin stopped 26 of 27 (.963), 1.7 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Ilya Sorokin (26 saves, .963), 2. Matthew Schaefer (2 A), 3. Bo Horvat (1 G).

Three stars

★
I. Sorokin26 saves, .963
★★
M. Schaefer2 A
★★★
B. Horvat1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DAL	06	011	110	127
NYI	110	06	19	225

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

B. Horvat(30)
E. Heineman (9), M. Schaefer (31)
wristxG 0.06win prob +12 ptsVideo
0-1
4:48

3rd period

C. Ritchie(11)
M. Schaefer (32), R. Pulock (23)
tip-inxG 0.13win prob +15 ptsVideo
0-2
2:19
M. Duchene(14)
J. Benn (17), T. Harley (27)
wristxG 0.07win prob +6 ptsVideo
1-2
17:01

Penalties

6 PIM·

4 PIM

1st

8:36Adam Erne · Slashingdrawn by Matthew Schaefer2 min

2nd

8:37Casey Cizikas · Slashingdrawn by Esa Lindell2 min
13:27Wyatt Johnston · Holdingdrawn by Simon Holmstrom2 min

3rd

3:03Thomas Harley · Holdingdrawn by Mathew Barzal2 min
9:17Adam Boqvist · Holdingdrawn by Colin Blackwell2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: NYI

100%

Biggest swing: Calum Ritchie, 3rd 2:19 — NYI 77% → 92%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

2 G · 3.3 xG · 37 att

←

attacks

attacks →

1 G · 2.7 xG · 43 att NYI

2 G · 3.3 xG · 37 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.71 G
All situations: 2 G3.3; 1.81 G
Even strength: 2 G2.8; 0.80 G
Power play: 0 G0.5; 0.20 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 80 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

41%59%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.69 – 3.20

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

27
Shots on goal: 25; 42%
Faceoffs: 58%; 0/2
Power play: 0/3; 6
Penalty minutes: 4; 21
Hits: 15; 10
Blocked shots: 15; 18
Giveaways: 17; 5
Takeaways: 4

Box score

every player line

Dallas Stars skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
55T. HarleyD	0	1	1	+1	0	0.01	1	3	2	—	25:11
4M. HeiskanenD	0	0	0	0	4	0.20	0	1	0	—	23:31
21J. RobertsonL	0	0	0	+1	4	0.49	1	0	0	—	23:11
53W. JohnstonC	0	0	0	+1	2	0.21	3	0	2	43	22:02
95M. DucheneC	1	0	1	0	2	0.22	1	0	0	47	19:56
23E. LindellD	0	0	0	-1	2	0.08	0	2	0	—	18:24
5N. LundkvistD	0	0	0	0	2	0.09	1	0	0	—	18:14
14J. BennL	0	1	1	0	1	0.09	0	0	0	100	18:00
22M. BourqueC	0	0	0	0	2	0.45	1	0	0	0	17:28
6L. BichselD	0	0	0	-1	1	0.01	4	2	0	—	16:11
49J. HryckowianC	0	0	0	-1	1	0.02	1	1	0	50	15:27
57T. MyersD	0	0	0	-1	1	0.01	2	0	0	—	15:08
18S. SteelC	0	0	0	-1	1	0.15	2	0	0	0	13:36
15C. BlackwellC	0	0	0	-1	0	0.03	0	0	0	50	12:51
10O. BäckC	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	0	1	0	0	10:43
73A. ErneL	0	0	0	-1	1	0.24	3	0	2	—	09:28
25A. HyryR	0	0	0	0	0	0.03	0	0	0	20	09:16
11N. BastianR	0	0	0	0	2	0.39	1	0	0	—	08:32

Dallas Stars goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
29J. Oettinger(L)	25	23	2	.920	3.26	+1.26	56:51

Season series

NYI leads 2-0

Nov 183@2Final
Mar 261@2this game

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Dallas Stars at New York Islanders

1st period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score