Wild at Panthers 3-2 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Minnesota Wild

▸3

Florida Panthers

FinalTV ESPN, SNP·Amerant Bank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Minnesota Wild beat the Florida Panthers 3-2. The Wild scored first and never trailed. The Wild led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Joel Eriksson Ek's goal at 19:55 of the third period, which took the Wild's chances from 48% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Wild, 3.7 to 1.5; shots on goal were MIN 50, FLA 20. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Wild win a replay of these chances 83% of the time. Jesper Wallstedt stopped 18 of 20 (.900); Daniil Tarasov stopped 47 of 50 (.940), 0.7 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Joel Eriksson Ek (1 G), 2. Daniil Tarasov (47 saves, .940), 3. Matthew Tkachuk (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

★
J. Eriksson Ek1 G
★★
D. Tarasov47 saves, .940
★★★
M. Tkachuk1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MIN	019	211	120	350
FLA	06	08	26	220

Scoring

5 goals

2nd period

M. Foligno(7)
Y. Trenin (15), J. Petry (9)
snapxG 0.16win prob +16 ptsVideo
1-0
2:47
R. Hartman(17)
Unassisted
wristxG 0.05win prob +18 ptsVideo
2-0
18:25

3rd period

M. Tkachuk(10)
G. Forsling (23), S. Bennett (29)
tip-inxG 0.08win prob +17 ptsVideo
2-1
0:42
A. Ekblad(4)
S. Jones (19), M. Tkachuk (15)
slapxG 0.10win prob +46 ptsVideo
2-2
18:47
J. Eriksson Ek(18)
B. Faber (34)
wristxG 0.07win prob +51 ptsVideo
3-2
19:55

Penalties

2 PIM·

2 PIM

1st

7:38Seth Jones · Trippingdrawn by Mats Zuccarello2 min

2nd

3:19Nick Foligno · Trippingdrawn by Luke Kunin2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: FLA

Biggest swing: Joel Eriksson Ek, 3rd 19:55 — MIN 48% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

2 G · 1.5 xG · 32 att

←

attacks

attacks →

3 G · 3.7 xG · 65 att FLA

2 G · 1.5 xG · 32 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

3.73 G
All situations: 2 G1.5; 3.53 G
Even strength: 2 G1.2; 0.20 G
Power play: 0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 97 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

83%17%

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.61 – 1.53

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

50
Shots on goal: 20; 51%
Faceoffs: 49%; 0/1
Power play: 0/1; 2
Penalty minutes: 2; 15
Hits: 21; 20
Blocked shots: 9; 13
Giveaways: 13; 4
Takeaways: 5

Box score

every player line

Minnesota Wild skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
43Q. HughesD	0	0	0	+1	5	0.25	0	1	0	—	26:55
7B. FaberD	0	1	1	0	5	0.11	1	2	0	—	24:53
25J. BrodinD	0	0	0	0	4	0.04	0	2	0	—	19:30
97K. KaprizovL	0	0	0	+1	1	0.21	0	0	0	—	18:16
5J. MiddletonD	0	0	0	0	2	0.02	0	6	0	—	17:42
47M. McCarronC	0	0	0	-1	2	0.44	3	2	0	38	17:20
36M. ZuccarelloR	0	0	0	+1	1	0.19	0	1	0	—	16:41
10B. BrinkR	0	0	0	-1	2	0.36	2	1	0	—	16:00
90M. JohanssonL	0	0	0	-1	3	0.43	0	1	0	—	15:45
12M. BoldyL	0	0	0	0	1	0.06	1	0	0	—	15:15
38R. HartmanR	1	0	1	+1	4	0.17	0	0	0	40	14:50
2J. PetryD	0	1	1	+1	4	0.07	1	1	0	—	14:33
46J. SpurgeonD	0	0	0	0	1	0.03	0	0	0	—	14:32
14J. Eriksson EkC	1	0	1	0	5	0.59	2	0	0	79	14:25
91V. TarasenkoR	0	0	0	0	2	0.11	0	0	0	—	13:34
13Y. TreninC	0	1	1	+1	2	0.16	3	2	0	0	13:10
71N. FolignoL	0	0	0	+1	4	0.25	0	1	2	57	12:37
17M. FolignoL	1	0	1	+1	2	0.19	2	0	0	—	12:02

Minnesota Wild goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
30J. Wallstedt(W)	20	18	2	.900	1.53	-0.47	60:00

Season series

Tied 1-1

Jan 244@3OTFinal
Mar 263@2this game

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Minnesota Wild at Florida Panthers

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

Box score