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Lightning at Flames
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Calgary Flames

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
3
Calgary Flames
▸4
Final/OTTV The Spot, SNW·Scotiabank Saddledome

Recap

written from the game data

The Calgary Flames beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 4-3 in overtime, Ryan Strome scoring at 0:26. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Flames led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Ryan Strome's goal at 0:26 of overtime, which took the Flames' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 2.6 to 2.2; shots on goal were TBL 35, CGY 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 57% of the time. Jonas Johansson stopped 25 of 29 (.862), 1.8 goals below expected; Devin Cooley stopped 32 of 35 (.914). Three stars: 1. Ryan Strome (1 G), 2. Devin Cooley (32 saves, .914), 3. Brayden Point.

Three stars

  1. ★
    CGY
    R. Strome1 G
  2. ★★
    CGY
    D. Cooley32 saves, .914
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    B. Point

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
TBLTBL11011511000335
CGYCGY2111110611429

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    R. McDonagh(6)
    G. Goncalves (16)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-0
    7:25
  2. CGY
    V. Olofsson(13)
    Y. Sharangovich (12), Z. Whitecloud (10)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-1
    16:25
  3. CGY
    M. Frost(17)
    M. Coronato (18)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-2
    16:52

2nd period

  1. CGY
    M. Backlund(16)
    B. Coleman (13), H. Brzustewicz (2)
    slapxG 0.06win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-3
    8:28
  2. TBL
    D. Raddysh(19)
    N. Kucherov (79), J. Moser (20)
    slapxG 0.07win prob +15 ptsVideo
    2-3
    11:47

3rd period

  1. TBL
    P. Holmberg(10)
    Y. Gourde (17)
    snapxG 0.19win prob +38 ptsVideo
    3-3
    15:40

Overtime

  1. CGY
    R. Strome(5)
    M. Gridin (8), K. Bahl (13)
    snapxG 0.20win prob +49 ptsVideo
    3-4
    0:26

Penalties

TBL 0 PIM·CGY 2 PIM

1st

  • 12:01CGYTyson Gross · Trippingdrawn by Anthony Cirelli2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CGY goalTBL goalFinal: CGY 100%

Biggest swing: Ryan Strome, OT 0:26 — CGY 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Strome · Goal · xG 0.20R. Strome · On goal · xG 0.20M. Frost · On goal · xG 0.19M. Frost · Goal · xG 0.14Y. Sharangovich · Missed · xG 0.10Y. Sharangovich · On goal · xG 0.09V. Olofsson · Goal · xG 0.08O. Maatta · On goal · xG 0.07M. Gridin · On goal · xG 0.07M. Backlund · Missed · xG 0.06M. Backlund · Goal · xG 0.06M. Gridin · On goal · xG 0.06B. Coleman · Missed · xG 0.06B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.06M. Coronato · Missed · xG 0.05V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.05Y. Sharangovich · Missed · xG 0.05M. Gridin · On goal · xG 0.05M. Coronato · On goal · xG 0.05M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.05K. Bahl · Missed · xG 0.04B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.04O. Maatta · Missed · xG 0.04J. Hanley · On goal · xG 0.04M. Coronato · On goal · xG 0.04V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.03M. Coronato · Missed · xG 0.02Z. Parekh · Missed · xG 0.02Z. Whitecloud · On goal · xG 0.02J. Hanley · On goal · xG 0.02M. Coronato · Missed · xG 0.02M. Coronato · On goal · xG 0.02Y. Sharangovich · Missed · xG 0.02M. Frost · Missed · xG 0.02Z. Whitecloud · On goal · xG 0.02A. Klapka · Missed · xG 0.01Z. Whitecloud · On goal · xG 0.01J. Hanley · On goal · xG 0.01Z. Whitecloud · On goal · xG 0.01O. Maatta · On goal · xG 0.01M. Pospisil · On goal · xG 0.01M. Backlund · Missed · xG 0.01M. Coronato · On goal · xG 0.01M. Coronato · Missed · xG 0.01M. Frost · Missed · xG 0.00K. Bahl · Missed · xG 0.00
CGY4 G · 2.2 xG · 46 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsCGY
2.63 G
All situations
4 G2.2
2.53 G
Even strength
4 G2.2
0.10 G
Power play
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 94 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL57%43%CGY

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.56 – 2.22

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsCGY
35
Shots on goal
29
46%
Faceoffs
54%
0/1
Power play
0/0
0
Penalty minutes
2
16
Hits
23
4
Blocked shots
16
17
Giveaways
20
5
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
43D. RaddyshD101-150.23000—24:39
90J. MoserD011-210.02020—23:08
86N. KucherovR011+130.40000—20:57
59J. GuentzelC000+110.291103819:34
51C. D'AstousD000030.05100—19:19
38B. HagelL000-220.18000—19:13
78E. LillebergD000020.08100—18:23
71A. CirelliC000-240.161005417:56
21B. PointC000+130.480006017:22
27R. McDonaghD101+110.05100—16:11
81E. CernakD000+100.00310—16:04
37Y. GourdeC011+110.030005015:38
29P. HolmbergR101+130.20100—14:40
28Z. GirgensonsC000+120.252003314:34
93G. GoncalvesC011-110.07000013:53
10C. PerryR000-100.00100—10:21
20N. PaulL000-120.092003310:18
22O. BjorkstrandR000-110.02200—09:55
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31J. Johansson(O)29254.8622.22-1.7859:39

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).