Skip to content
Maple Leafs at Wild
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Minnesota Wild

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸4
Minnesota Wild
2
FinalTV TNT, truTV·Grand Casino Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Minnesota Wild 4-2. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 3-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Bo Groulx's goal at 2:19 of the second period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 63% to 80%. Expected goals favored the Wild, 4.6 to 2.1; shots on goal were TOR 26, MIN 38. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Wild win a replay of these chances 85% of the time. Anthony Stolarz stopped 36 of 38 (.947), 1.9 goals saved above expected; Jesper Wallstedt stopped 22 of 25 (.880), 1.4 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Anthony Stolarz (36 saves, .947), 2. Vladimir Tarasenko (2 G), 3. Bo Groulx (2 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    A. Stolarz36 saves, .947
  2. ★★
    MIN
    V. Tarasenko2 G
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    B. Groulx2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR0531615426
MINMIN010011217238

Scoring

6 goals

2nd period

  1. TOR
    M. Rielly(9)
    M. Maccelli (19), J. Tavares (32)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-0
    1:07
  2. TOR
    B. Groulx(2)
    T. Stecher (10), N. Robertson (16)
    deflectedxG 0.08win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-0
    2:19
  3. TOR
    B. Groulx(3)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.04win prob +10 ptsVideo
    3-0
    8:18

3rd period

  1. MIN
    V. Tarasenko(17)
    M. Zuccarello (28), R. Hartman (14)
    snapxG 0.28win prob +6 ptsVideo
    3-1
    4:51
  2. MIN
    V. Tarasenko(18)
    R. Hartman (15), M. Zuccarello (29)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +17 ptsVideo
    3-2
    5:14
  3. TOR
    M. Knies(18)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.45win prob +3 ptsVideo
    4-2
    19:23

Penalties

TOR 8 PIM·MIN 6 PIM

2nd

  • 9:29TORCalle Jarnkrok · Holding the stickdrawn by Quinn Hughes2 min
  • 14:13MINMats Zuccarello · Cross checkingdrawn by Brandon Carlo2 min
  • 14:13TORBrandon Carlo · Cross checkingdrawn by Mats Zuccarello2 min
  • 15:05TORJake McCabe · Interferencedrawn by Kirill Kaprizov2 min
  • 15:05MINKirill Kaprizov · Embellishment2 min
  • 17:18MINYakov Trenin · Hookingdrawn by Matthew Knies2 min

3rd

  • 11:22TORNick Robertson · Slashingdrawn by Nick Foligno2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
MIN goalTOR goalFinal: MIN 0%

Biggest swing: Bo Groulx, 2nd 2:19 — TOR 63% → 80%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Eriksson Ek · Missed · xG 0.73V. Tarasenko · Goal · xG 0.28M. Zuccarello · On goal · xG 0.25M. Zuccarello · Missed · xG 0.24Y. Trenin · On goal · xG 0.22V. Tarasenko · Missed · xG 0.20K. Kaprizov · Missed · xG 0.18R. Hartman · On goal · xG 0.15K. Kaprizov · On goal · xG 0.14M. Boldy · On goal · xG 0.13J. Eriksson Ek · On goal · xG 0.12M. Zuccarello · Missed · xG 0.12M. McCarron · Missed · xG 0.11K. Kaprizov · Missed · xG 0.10B. Faber · On goal · xG 0.09M. Zuccarello · On goal · xG 0.09J. Eriksson Ek · On goal · xG 0.09B. Faber · Missed · xG 0.09M. Zuccarello · On goal · xG 0.08Q. Hughes · On goal · xG 0.08R. Hartman · On goal · xG 0.08Y. Trenin · On goal · xG 0.08Y. Trenin · Missed · xG 0.07R. Hartman · Missed · xG 0.07M. Boldy · On goal · xG 0.06M. McCarron · On goal · xG 0.06M. Boldy · On goal · xG 0.06V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.06M. Zuccarello · On goal · xG 0.05Q. Hughes · On goal · xG 0.05J. Middleton · On goal · xG 0.05Y. Trenin · On goal · xG 0.04V. Tarasenko · Goal · xG 0.04R. Hartman · Missed · xG 0.03M. Boldy · Missed · xG 0.03V. Tarasenko · Missed · xG 0.03N. Foligno · On goal · xG 0.02M. Boldy · On goal · xG 0.02V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.02M. Zuccarello · Missed · xG 0.02N. Sturm · On goal · xG 0.02K. Kaprizov · On goal · xG 0.02R. Hartman · Missed · xG 0.02J. Brodin · On goal · xG 0.02M. Boldy · Missed · xG 0.02R. Hartman · On goal · xG 0.01M. Johansson · On goal · xG 0.01M. Zuccarello · On goal · xG 0.01J. Petry · Missed · xG 0.01B. Faber · On goal · xG 0.01J. Brodin · Missed · xG 0.01M. Johansson · Missed · xG 0.01J. Petry · On goal · xG 0.01Q. Hughes · Missed · xG 0.01J. Eriksson Ek · On goal · xG 0.01J. Eriksson Ek · On goal · xG 0.01R. Hartman · On goal · xG 0.01J. Brodin · On goal · xG 0.00
MIN2 G · 4.6 xG · 58 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsMIN
2.13 G
All situations
2 G4.6
1.23 G
Even strength
2 G3.5
0.40 G
Power play
0 G0.4
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 93 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR15%85%MIN

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.61 – 3.86

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsMIN
26
Shots on goal
38
53%
Faceoffs
47%
0/1
Power play
0/2
8
Penalty minutes
6
14
Hits
22
28
Blocked shots
13
23
Giveaways
16
4
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
22J. McCabeD000+210.02292—26:49
25B. CarloD000+110.00042—25:07
23M. KniesL101+120.56110—20:47
91J. TavaresC011030.310106519:49
88W. NylanderR000+120.14010—17:42
44M. RiellyD101+130.18000—17:38
51P. MyersD000010.01220—17:28
28T. StecherD011030.04140—17:13
29B. GroulxC202+220.131005617:03
53E. CowanR000000.00020—16:39
11M. DomiC000+100.000004515:26
2S. BenoitD000000.00020—14:46
63M. MaccelliL011+120.20000—14:19
89N. RobertsonL011020.05002—13:41
81D. JoshuaC000020.18400011:51
18S. LorentzC000000.00200010:54
19C. JarnkrokC000020.2400210010:22
26J. QuillanC000000.001202008:21
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41A. Stolarz(W)38362.9473.91+1.9158:05

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).