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Wild at Maple Leafs
NHL

Minnesota Wild at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Minnesota Wild
▸6
Toronto Maple Leafs
3
FinalTV FDSNNO, FDSNWI·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Minnesota Wild beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 6-3. The Wild scored first and never trailed. The Wild led 5-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Marcus Foligno's goal at 6:53 of the second period, which took the Wild's chances from 66% to 82%. Expected goals favored the Wild, 4.8 to 3.0; shots on goal were MIN 39, TOR 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Wild win a replay of these chances 58% of the time. Filip Gustavsson stopped 27 of 30 (.900); Joseph Woll stopped 24 of 29 (.828), 2.2 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Marcus Foligno (3 G), 2. Vladimir Tarasenko (2 G, 1 A), 3. Auston Matthews (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    MIN
    M. Foligno3 G
  2. ★★
    MIN
    V. Tarasenko2 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    A. Matthews1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
MINMIN29320110639
TORTOR1808214330

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. MIN
    V. Tarasenko(10)PPG
    R. Hartman (9), K. Kaprizov (31)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +8 ptsVideo
    1-0
    4:45
  2. MIN
    R. Hartman(14)
    M. Zuccarello (18), K. Kaprizov (32)
    wristxG 0.21win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-0
    10:29
  3. TOR
    J. Tavares(18)PPG
    M. Knies (29), A. Matthews (17)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +8 ptsVideo
    2-1
    18:24

2nd period

  1. MIN
    M. Foligno(4)
    B. Faber (19), Q. Hughes (38)
    tip-inxG 0.05win prob +16 ptsVideo
    3-1
    6:53
  2. MIN
    V. Tarasenko(11)
    Q. Hughes (39)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +10 ptsVideo
    4-1
    8:24
  3. MIN
    M. Foligno(5)PPG
    B. Faber (20), D. Yurov (12)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +3 ptsVideo
    5-1
    19:14

3rd period

  1. TOR
    N. Robertson(11)
    N. Roy (14), E. Cowan (9)
    deflectedxG 0.16win prob +1 ptsVideo
    5-2
    6:27
  2. TOR
    A. Matthews(25)
    M. Domi (17)
    backhandxG 0.31win prob +1 ptsVideo
    5-3
    15:02
  3. MIN
    M. Foligno(6)EN
    V. Tarasenko (15), N. Sturm (6)
    backhandxG 0.89win prob +1 ptsVideo
    6-3
    17:22

Penalties

MIN 8 PIM·TOR 6 PIM

1st

  • 3:58TORSimon Benoit · Trippingdrawn by Mats Zuccarello2 min
  • 18:06MINJared Spurgeon · High sticking double minordrawn by John Tavares4 min

2nd

  • 4:36TORBrandon Carlo · Interferencedrawn by Tyler Pitlick2 min
  • 10:18MINQuinn Hughes · Interferencedrawn by Scott Laughton2 min
  • 17:23TOREaston Cowan · Hookingdrawn by Brock Faber2 min

3rd

  • 8:37MINVladimir Tarasenko · Trippingdrawn by Nicolas Roy2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalMIN goalFinal: TOR 0%

Biggest swing: Marcus Foligno, 2nd 6:53 — MIN 66% → 82%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
N. Roy · On goal · xG 0.40A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.31J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.21J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.17N. Robertson · Goal · xG 0.16S. Lorentz · On goal · xG 0.15J. Tavares · Goal · xG 0.13A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.13S. Lorentz · On goal · xG 0.12N. Roy · Missed · xG 0.10M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.08T. Stecher · On goal · xG 0.08E. Cowan · Missed · xG 0.08J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.08M. Maccelli · Missed · xG 0.06M. Domi · On goal · xG 0.06C. Jarnkrok · Missed · xG 0.05J. McCabe · On goal · xG 0.05C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.05T. Stecher · On goal · xG 0.04M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.04J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.04M. Maccelli · Missed · xG 0.04O. Ekman-Larsson · On goal · xG 0.04M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.03O. Ekman-Larsson · On goal · xG 0.03J. McCabe · On goal · xG 0.03E. Cowan · Missed · xG 0.03S. Lorentz · On goal · xG 0.03M. Maccelli · On goal · xG 0.03E. Cowan · On goal · xG 0.02J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.02O. Ekman-Larsson · On goal · xG 0.02S. Laughton · On goal · xG 0.02T. Stecher · Missed · xG 0.02M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.01T. Stecher · On goal · xG 0.01S. Laughton · Missed · xG 0.01M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.01S. Lorentz · On goal · xG 0.01E. Cowan · On goal · xG 0.01
TOR3 G · 3.0 xG · 41 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

MINvsTOR
4.85 G
All situations
3 G3.0
2.53 G
Even strength
2 G2.4
1.02 G
Power play
1 G0.6
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 97 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
MIN58%42%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.46 – 2.95

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

MINvsTOR
39
Shots on goal
30
46%
Faceoffs
54%
2/3
Power play
1/4
8
Penalty minutes
6
21
Hits
23
13
Blocked shots
15
12
Giveaways
12
5
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Minnesota Wild skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
43Q. HughesD022+310.07022—26:33
7B. FaberD022+420.17010—24:25
97K. KaprizovL022+150.70100—22:47
36M. ZuccarelloR011+110.23000—21:59
38R. HartmanR112+140.430103821:52
46J. SpurgeonD000000.00124—20:28
5J. MiddletonD000+130.12020—19:47
91V. TarasenkoR213+240.73012—16:15
13Y. TreninC000+100.12910015:42
22D. YurovR011+210.010203515:28
17M. FolignoL303+151.0920010014:13
55D.JiricekD000-200.00010—12:49
48D. HuntD000-210.01000—12:45
78N. SturmC011010.013009012:06
18V. HinostrozaC000030.57100011:13
37H. HaightC000-140.300003809:59
39B. JonesC000-130.18100008:00
19T. PitlickC000-110.02300007:25
Minnesota Wild goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
32F. Gustavsson(W)30273.9003.03+0.0359:56

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).