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Edmonton Oilers at Dallas Stars

FinalTV ESPN+, HULU·American Airlines Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the Edmonton Oilers 7-2. The Stars scored first and never trailed. The Stars led 5-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Sam Steel's goal at 13:09 of the first period, which took the Stars' chances from 67% to 81%. Expected goals favored the Stars, 3.2 to 3.0; shots on goal were EDM 32, DAL 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 57% of the time. Tristan Jarry stopped 20 of 27 (.741), 3.8 goals below expected; Jake Oettinger stopped 30 of 32 (.938), 0.9 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Jason Robertson (2 G, 2 A), 2. Jamie Benn (2 G), 3. Miro Heiskanen (3 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DAL
    J. Robertson2 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    DAL
    J. Benn2 G
  3. ★★★
    DAL
    M. Heiskanen3 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
EDMEDM04211017232
DALDAL31021126727

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. DAL
    backhandxG 0.14win prob +11 ptsVideo
    0-1
    1:23
  2. DAL
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +14 ptsVideo
    0-2
    13:09
  3. DAL
    Unassisted
    snapxG 0.15win prob +9 ptsVideo
    0-3
    15:11

2nd period

  1. DAL
    snapxG 0.24win prob +3 ptsVideo
    0-4
    5:43
  2. DAL
    snapxG 0.14win prob +1 ptsVideo
    0-5
    6:15
  3. EDM
    snapxG 0.15win prob +1 ptsVideo
    1-5
    7:53
  4. EDM
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +3 ptsVideo
    2-5
    11:59

3rd period

  1. DAL
    J. Benn(14)PPG
    snapxG 0.13win prob +2 ptsVideo
    2-6
    1:32
  2. DAL
    backhandxG 0.09Video
    2-7
    18:57

Penalties

EDM 24 PIM·DAL 22 PIM

2nd

  • 5:32EDMJason Dickinson · Interferencedrawn by Nils Lundkvist2 min
  • 14:07DALThomas Harley · Interferencedrawn by Adam Henrique2 min
  • 16:13EDMConnor McDavid · Roughingdrawn by Tyler Myers2 min
  • 18:34DALOskar Bäck · Interferencedrawn by Zach Hyman2 min
  • 20:00EDMLeon Draisaitl · Slashingdrawn by Arttu Hyry2 min
  • 20:00EDMConnor McDavid · Roughingdrawn by Justin Hryckowian2 min
  • 20:00DALJustin Hryckowian · Roughingdrawn by Connor McDavid2 min

3rd

  • 8:16DALJustin Hryckowian · Roughingdrawn by Trent Frederic2 min
  • 8:16EDMJosh Samanski · Trippingdrawn by Justin Hryckowian2 min
  • 8:16DALColin Blackwell · Roughingdrawn by Josh Samanski2 min
  • 8:16EDMTrent Frederic · Roughingdrawn by Justin Hryckowian2 min
  • 11:57EDMDarnell Nurse · Cross checkingdrawn by Justin Hryckowian2 min
  • 13:43DALEsa Lindell · Interferencedrawn by Jason Dickinson2 min
  • 17:39DALWyatt Johnston · Roughingdrawn by Jason Dickinson2 min
  • 17:39DALWyatt Johnston · Roughingdrawn by Jason Dickinson2 min
  • 17:39DALMavrik Bourque · Roughingdrawn by Jack Roslovic2 min
  • 17:39DALMavrik Bourque · Roughingdrawn by Jack Roslovic2 min
  • 17:39EDMDarnell Nurse · Roughingdrawn by Tyler Myers2 min
  • 17:39EDMDarnell Nurse · Roughingdrawn by Tyler Myers2 min
  • 17:39EDMJason Dickinson · Roughingdrawn by Wyatt Johnston2 min
  • 17:39EDMJason Dickinson · Roughingdrawn by Wyatt Johnston2 min
  • 18:22DALLian Bichsel · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Trent Frederic2 min
  • 18:22EDMTrent Frederic · Roughingdrawn by Lian Bichsel2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DAL goalEDM goalFinal: DAL 100%

Biggest swing: Sam Steel, 1st 13:09 — DAL 67% → 81%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
S. Steel · Missed · xG 0.41C. Blackwell · On goal · xG 0.25W. Johnston · Goal · xG 0.24W. Johnston · Missed · xG 0.21W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.20T. Myers · On goal · xG 0.18W. Johnston · Missed · xG 0.18O. Bäck · On goal · xG 0.16J. Robertson · Goal · xG 0.15J. Robertson · Goal · xG 0.14J. Benn · Goal · xG 0.14J. Benn · Goal · xG 0.13T. Myers · On goal · xG 0.10S. Steel · Goal · xG 0.10M. Duchene · Goal · xG 0.09J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.09M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.07J. Benn · Missed · xG 0.05A. Hyry · On goal · xG 0.04M. Bourque · On goal · xG 0.03T. Harley · On goal · xG 0.03T. Harley · On goal · xG 0.03T. Harley · On goal · xG 0.03J. Hryckowian · On goal · xG 0.02M. Heiskanen · Missed · xG 0.02M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.02T. Harley · Missed · xG 0.02L. Bichsel · Missed · xG 0.02J. Hryckowian · On goal · xG 0.01O. Bäck · On goal · xG 0.01J. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.01A. Erne · On goal · xG 0.01M. Bourque · On goal · xG 0.01C. Blackwell · On goal · xG 0.01M. Heiskanen · Missed · xG 0.01E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.01
DAL7 G · 3.2 xG · 36 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

EDMvsDAL
3.02 G
All situations
7 G3.2
1.62 G
Even strength
5 G2.5
1.30 G
Power play
2 G0.6
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 80 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
EDM43%57%DAL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.82 – 3.24

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

EDMvsDAL
32
Shots on goal
27
51%
Faceoffs
49%
0/3
Power play
2/4
24
Penalty minutes
22
24
Hits
14
7
Blocked shots
7
25
Giveaways
14
3
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Edmonton Oilers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
2E. BouchardD101-260.43010—21:51
5C. MurphyD000010.04110—20:18
25D. NurseD000-110.02316—18:45
96J. WalmanD000-230.05020—18:17
18Z. HymanL000-360.95000—17:57
14M. EkholmD011+100.00000—17:51
24S. StastneyD000-210.00000—17:50
97C. McDavidC000-310.073044017:45
29L. DraisaitlC011+100.000026417:36
93R. Nugent-HopkinsC000-210.02100017:32
42K. KapanenR011-130.12200—14:50
28J. RoslovicC011+110.012008014:47
92V. PodkolzinR000+130.51600—14:44
22M. SavoieC000-220.3300010014:21
16J. DickinsonC101010.095064513:16
81J. SamanskiC000000.001023811:53
10T. FredericC000000.03014011:49
19A. HenriqueC000010.290106011:17
Edmonton Oilers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35T. Jarry(L)27207.7413.25-3.7560:00

Season series

DAL leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).