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Lightning at Maple Leafs
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸5
Toronto Maple Leafs
2
FinalTV NHLN, The Spot·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 5-2. The Maple Leafs scored first; the Lightning answered. The Lightning led 4-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Corey Perry's goal at 13:48 of the first period, which took the Lightning's chances from 51% to 70%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 4.0 to 2.5; shots on goal were TBL 33, TOR 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 59% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 27 of 29 (.931); Anthony Stolarz stopped 28 of 32 (.875), 1.0 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Nikita Kucherov (4 A), 2. Jake Guentzel (1 G, 1 A), 3. Matias Maccelli (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    N. Kucherov4 A
  2. ★★
    TBL
    J. Guentzel1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    M. Maccelli1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL41207114533
TORTOR11108110229

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    M. Maccelli(13)
    W. Nylander (38)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    4:50
  2. TBL
    R. McDonagh(5)
    N. Kucherov (65), B. Point (23)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-1
    5:36
  3. TBL
    J. Guentzel(27)
    B. Point (24), N. Kucherov (66)
    backhandxG 0.26win prob +4 ptsVideo
    2-1
    12:30
  4. TBL
    C. Perry(12)
    B. Hagel (28), A. Cirelli (21)
    snapxG 0.17win prob +19 ptsVideo
    3-1
    13:48
  5. TBL
    O. Bjorkstrand(11)PPG
    N. Kucherov (67), J. Guentzel (40)
    slapxG 0.13win prob +10 ptsVideo
    4-1
    15:06

3rd period

  1. TBL
    B. Hagel(29)EN
    A. Cirelli (22), N. Kucherov (68)
    wristxG 0.93
    5-1
    15:41
  2. TOR
    N. Robertson(13)
    Unassisted
    wrap-aroundxG 0.08
    5-2
    19:29

Penalties

TBL 11 PIM·TOR 13 PIM

1st

  • 6:41TBLConor Geekie · Trippingdrawn by Jake McCabe2 min
  • 12:14TORMax Domi · Fightingdrawn by Charle-Edouard D'Astous5 min
  • 12:14TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous · Fightingdrawn by Max Domi5 min
  • 14:31TORBrandon Carlo · Hookingdrawn by Nikita Kucherov2 min
  • 17:49TBLDarren Raddysh · Trippingdrawn by Nick Robertson2 min

2nd

  • 7:34TORTroy Stecher · High stickingdrawn by Pontus Holmberg2 min
  • 11:33TBLScott Sabourin · Trippingdrawn by Dakota Joshua2 min
  • 14:22TORserved by N. Robertson · Too many men on the ice2 min

3rd

  • 0:16TORSimon Benoit · Holdingdrawn by Yanni Gourde2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalTBL goalFinal: TOR 0%

Biggest swing: Corey Perry, 1st 13:48 — TBL 51% → 70%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.25A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.17M. Maccelli · Goal · xG 0.17A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.14J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.14A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.14M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.14N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.12M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.10N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.10S. Lorentz · Missed · xG 0.09N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.09A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.09N. Robertson · Goal · xG 0.08N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.07J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.06M. Maccelli · Missed · xG 0.06J. Quillan · On goal · xG 0.06W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.06A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.05E. Cowan · On goal · xG 0.05N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.04J. Quillan · On goal · xG 0.03A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.03T. Stecher · Missed · xG 0.03E. Cowan · On goal · xG 0.03O. Ekman-Larsson · On goal · xG 0.02W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.02C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.02M. Domi · On goal · xG 0.02E. Cowan · On goal · xG 0.02T. Stecher · Missed · xG 0.01M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.01B. Carlo · On goal · xG 0.01O. Ekman-Larsson · Missed · xG 0.00
TOR2 G · 2.5 xG · 35 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsTOR
4.04 G
All situations
2 G2.5
2.13 G
Even strength
2 G1.8
0.91 G
Power play
0 G0.6
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 79 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL59%41%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.98 – 2.45

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsTOR
33
Shots on goal
29
42%
Faceoffs
58%
1/4
Power play
0/3
11
Penalty minutes
13
26
Hits
22
11
Blocked shots
11
12
Giveaways
15
5
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77V. HedmanD000020.02300—20:54
43D. RaddyshD000+150.55302—20:45
81E. CernakD000+110.01220—19:45
38B. HagelL112+231.07000—18:50
90J. MoserD000030.15110—18:44
86N. KucherovR044+310.17000—18:36
27R. McDonaghD101+220.02110—17:25
59J. GuentzelC112+220.390102017:06
21B. PointC022+210.550004316:52
37Y. GourdeC000-100.001003816:33
51C. D'AstousD000000.00125—16:04
71A. CirelliC022+250.221204415:43
10C. PerryR101040.39000—14:58
22O. BjorkstrandR101-120.153105014:56
29P. HolmbergR000-200.13010—14:01
28Z. GirgensonsC000-110.013006013:18
46S. SabourinR000010.11202—10:07
14C. GeekieC000000.015024010:04
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(W)29272.9312.48+0.4859:19

Season series

TBL leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).