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Maple Leafs at Lightning
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
2
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸4
FinalTV TNT, truTV·Benchmark International Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 4-2. The Lightning scored first and never trailed. The Lightning led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Brayden Point's goal at 7:07 of the second period, which took the Lightning's chances from 53% to 70%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 5.8 to 3.9; shots on goal were TOR 34, TBL 36. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 68% of the time. Anthony Stolarz stopped 32 of 36 (.889), 1.0 goals saved above expected; Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 32 of 34 (.941), 1.9 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Brayden Point (2 G, 1 A), 2. Nikita Kucherov (1 G, 2 A), 3. Gage Goncalves (1 G, 2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    B. Point2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TBL
    N. Kucherov1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    G. Goncalves1 G, 2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR08014212234
TBLTBL04220212436

Scoring

6 goals

2nd period

  1. TBL
    B. Point(12)
    C. D'Astous (15), P. Holmberg (9)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +17 ptsVideo
    0-1
    7:07
  2. TBL
    G. Goncalves(7)
    N. Kucherov (63), C. D'Astous (16)
    wristxG 0.42win prob +16 ptsVideo
    0-2
    7:58

3rd period

  1. TBL
    N. Kucherov(30)
    G. Goncalves (12), B. Point (20)
    slapxG 0.09win prob +6 ptsVideo
    0-3
    2:59
  2. TOR
    J. Tavares(21)PPG
    W. Nylander (35), M. Knies (33)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +1 ptsVideo
    1-3
    16:19
  3. TBL
    B. Point(13)
    N. Kucherov (64), G. Goncalves (13)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +1 ptsVideo
    1-4
    16:30
  4. TOR
    M. Knies(15)
    W. Nylander (36), A. Matthews (23)
    snapxG 0.01Video
    2-4
    17:13

Penalties

TOR 8 PIM·TBL 4 PIM

1st

  • 14:06TORSimon Benoit · Slashingdrawn by Brayden Point2 min

2nd

  • 0:48TBLErik Cernak · Interferencedrawn by Auston Matthews2 min
  • 7:58TOROliver Ekman-Larsson · Roughingdrawn by Gage Goncalves2 min

3rd

  • 5:24TORAuston Matthews · Trippingdrawn by Pontus Holmberg2 min
  • 9:43TORSimon Benoit · Hookingdrawn by Brandon Hagel2 min
  • 14:54TBLRyan McDonagh · Holdingdrawn by Auston Matthews2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalTOR goalFinal: TBL 100%

Biggest swing: Brayden Point, 2nd 7:07 — TBL 53% → 70%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Guentzel · Missed · xG 0.82G. Goncalves · Goal · xG 0.42B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.25J. Moser · On goal · xG 0.21S. Sabourin · Missed · xG 0.20B. Point · Missed · xG 0.20J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.19B. Point · On goal · xG 0.17B. Point · Missed · xG 0.15O. Bjorkstrand · Missed · xG 0.14B. Point · Goal · xG 0.13O. Bjorkstrand · On goal · xG 0.13O. Bjorkstrand · On goal · xG 0.13J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.13B. Point · Missed · xG 0.12O. Bjorkstrand · On goal · xG 0.12B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.12O. Bjorkstrand · On goal · xG 0.12Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.10B. Point · Missed · xG 0.10J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.10B. Point · On goal · xG 0.10B. Point · Goal · xG 0.10N. Kucherov · Goal · xG 0.09B. Point · On goal · xG 0.09Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.09B. Point · Missed · xG 0.08D. Raddysh · On goal · xG 0.08Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.08N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.08N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.08Y. Gourde · Missed · xG 0.07B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.07J. Moser · Missed · xG 0.07D. Raddysh · On goal · xG 0.06Y. Gourde · Missed · xG 0.05J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.05J. Moser · On goal · xG 0.05J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.04N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.04C. D'Astous · Missed · xG 0.04B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.04B. Hagel · Missed · xG 0.03D. James · On goal · xG 0.03D. Raddysh · Missed · xG 0.03D. James · On goal · xG 0.03B. Point · Missed · xG 0.03D. Raddysh · On goal · xG 0.03V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.02Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Girgensons · Missed · xG 0.02D. Raddysh · Missed · xG 0.01D. Raddysh · Missed · xG 0.01O. Bjorkstrand · Missed · xG 0.01V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.01Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.01V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.01G. Goncalves · On goal · xG 0.00D. James · On goal · xG 0.00
TBL4 G · 5.8 xG · 59 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsTBL
3.92 G
All situations
4 G5.8
2.11 G
Even strength
4 G3.5
1.71 G
Power play
0 G1.5
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 107 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR32%68%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.67 – 4.93

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsTBL
34
Shots on goal
36
55%
Faceoffs
45%
1/2
Power play
0/4
8
Penalty minutes
4
18
Hits
17
17
Blocked shots
11
15
Giveaways
9
7
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
34A. MatthewsC011+120.161326722:54
95O. Ekman-LarssonD000030.44132—22:40
22J. McCabeD000-210.00030—22:00
44M. RiellyD000-130.11200—20:09
88W. NylanderR022040.4400010019:02
11M. DomiC000+120.16000018:31
23M. KniesL112030.38100—17:48
25B. CarloD000010.03030—17:43
91J. TavaresC101-130.240105317:29
28T. StecherD000-210.02000—16:28
55N. RoyC000-200.190004715:22
2S. BenoitD000-210.05414—14:32
74B. McMannC000-130.67300014:24
63M. MaccelliL000-140.57010—14:15
89N. RobertsonL000-210.30510—12:52
24S. LaughtonC000-210.021006312:02
18S. LorentzC000010.13010010:18
19C. JarnkrokC000000.02000008:11
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41A. Stolarz(L)36324.8894.98+0.9855:20

Season series

TBL leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).