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Lightning at Jets
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Winnipeg Jets

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
1
Winnipeg Jets
▸4
FinalTV The Spot, TSN3·Canada Life Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Winnipeg Jets beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 4-1. The Jets scored first and never trailed. The Jets led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Morgan Barron's goal at 15:31 of the second period, which took the Jets' chances from 53% to 73%. Expected goals favored the Jets, 4.0 to 2.6; shots on goal were TBL 27, WPG 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Jets win a replay of these chances 60% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 26 of 29 (.897); Connor Hellebuyck stopped 26 of 27 (.963), 1.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Gustav Nyquist (1 G), 2. Mark Scheifele (1 G, 1 A), 3. Connor Hellebuyck (26 saves, .963).

Three stars

  1. ★
    WPG
    G. Nyquist1 G
  2. ★★
    WPG
    M. Scheifele1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    WPG
    C. Hellebuyck26 saves, .963

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL0507115127
WPGWPG0821428430

Scoring

5 goals

2nd period

  1. WPG
    M. Barron(9)
    C. Koepke (8), T. Pearson (5)
    wristxG 0.20win prob +21 ptsVideo
    0-1
    15:31
  2. WPG
    M. Scheifele(29)
    A. Iafallo (13), K. Connor (42)
    slapxG 0.13win prob +16 ptsVideo
    0-2
    19:42

3rd period

  1. TBL
    B. Point(15)PPG
    J. Guentzel (39), D. Raddysh (38)
    wristxG 0.27win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-2
    1:52
  2. WPG
    G. Nyquist(1)
    J. Toews (13), T. Pearson (6)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-3
    5:34
  3. WPG
    K. Connor(28)EN
    M. Scheifele (46), A. Iafallo (14)
    wristxG 0.92Video
    1-4
    17:59

Penalties

TBL 4 PIM·WPG 4 PIM

1st

  • 2:14TBLAnthony Cirelli · Hookingdrawn by Elias Salomonsson2 min

2nd

  • 0:40WPGConnor Hellebuyck · Trippingdrawn by Pontus Holmberg2 min
  • 12:57TBLBrandon Hagel · Trippingdrawn by Tanner Pearson2 min

3rd

  • 1:45WPGElias Salomonsson · High stickingdrawn by Jake Guentzel2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
WPG goalTBL goalFinal: WPG 100%

Biggest swing: Morgan Barron, 2nd 15:31 — WPG 53% → 73%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
K. Connor · Goal · xG 0.92C. Koepke · On goal · xG 0.25M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.23M. Barron · Goal · xG 0.20C. Koepke · On goal · xG 0.20M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.17G. Nyquist · Goal · xG 0.16M. Scheifele · Goal · xG 0.13A. Iafallo · On goal · xG 0.12A. Iafallo · On goal · xG 0.12M. Scheifele · Missed · xG 0.11K. Connor · Missed · xG 0.10A. Iafallo · On goal · xG 0.09K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.09G. Vilardi · On goal · xG 0.08A. Iafallo · Missed · xG 0.08W. Duehr · On goal · xG 0.07V. Heinola · Missed · xG 0.07G. Vilardi · Missed · xG 0.06W. Duehr · Missed · xG 0.06W. Duehr · Missed · xG 0.06T. Pearson · Missed · xG 0.06K. Connor · Missed · xG 0.06M. Barron · Missed · xG 0.05D. DeMelo · Missed · xG 0.05C. Perfetti · On goal · xG 0.05J. Toews · On goal · xG 0.04M. Scheifele · On goal · xG 0.04H. Fleury · On goal · xG 0.04C. Koepke · On goal · xG 0.04K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.03A. Lowry · On goal · xG 0.03T. Pearson · Missed · xG 0.03T. Pearson · On goal · xG 0.02D. Samberg · Missed · xG 0.02A. Lowry · Missed · xG 0.01M. Barron · On goal · xG 0.01V. Heinola · On goal · xG 0.01H. Fleury · On goal · xG 0.01K. Connor · On goal · xG 0.01D. DeMelo · On goal · xG 0.01C. Perfetti · On goal · xG 0.01D. DeMelo · On goal · xG 0.00D. DeMelo · On goal · xG 0.00
WPG4 G · 4.0 xG · 44 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsWPG
2.61 G
All situations
3 G4.0
1.40 G
Even strength
3 G2.5
1.11 G
Power play
0 G0.6
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 87 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL40%60%WPG

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.52 – 3.07

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsWPG
27
Shots on goal
30
44%
Faceoffs
56%
1/2
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
4
23
Hits
26
17
Blocked shots
15
17
Giveaways
17
1
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
43D. RaddyshD011-310.06010—23:04
59J. GuentzelC011-250.731106721:45
86N. KucherovR000-210.06000—20:41
37Y. GourdeC000010.131004018:59
21B. PointC101-330.481003318:25
67D. CarlileD000-100.02120—18:22
38B. HagelL000-310.17012—18:17
81E. CernakD000010.12320—17:15
71A. CirelliC000-210.142126017:13
90J. MoserD000-230.04000—16:39
22O. BjorkstrandR000-130.25300—15:25
77V. HedmanD000-120.06120—14:45
28Z. GirgensonsC000030.155006714:42
29P. HolmbergR000-120.12020—14:18
51C. D'AstousD000000.00220—14:01
27R. McDonaghD000000.00010—13:44
14C. GeekieC000000.00000010:28
46S. SabourinR000000.04320—09:03
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(L)29263.8973.11+0.1158:54

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).