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Dallas Stars at Calgary Flames

FinalTV Victory+, SN1·Scotiabank Saddledome

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the Calgary Flames 6-1. The Stars scored first and never trailed. The Stars led 6-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mavrik Bourque's goal at 2:26 of the second period, which took the Stars' chances from 63% to 80%. Expected goals favored the Stars, 3.2 to 1.5; shots on goal were DAL 35, CGY 21. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 77% of the time. Casey DeSmith stopped 20 of 21 (.952), 0.5 goals saved above expected; Devin Cooley stopped 16 of 18 (.889). Three stars: 1. Matt Duchene (4 A), 2. Sam Steel (2 G, 1 A), 3. Wyatt Johnston (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DAL
    M. Duchene4 A
  2. ★★
    DAL
    S. Steel2 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    DAL
    W. Johnston1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DALDAL211411013635
CGYCGY190507121

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. DAL
    M. Duchene (13), J. Benn (15)
    tip-inxG 0.04win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-0
    8:44
  2. CGY
    tip-inxG 0.11win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-1
    9:52
  3. DAL
    M. Duchene (14), S. Steel (19)
    snapxG 0.05win prob +14 ptsVideo
    2-1
    11:54

2nd period

  1. DAL
    deflectedxG 0.08win prob +17 ptsVideo
    3-1
    2:26
  2. DAL
    snapxG 0.12win prob +9 ptsVideo
    4-1
    6:02
  3. DAL
    tip-inxG 0.06win prob +5 ptsVideo
    5-1
    8:48
  4. DAL
    backhandxG 0.24Video
    6-1
    19:41

Penalties

DAL 8 PIM·CGY 12 PIM

1st

  • 3:32CGYBlake Coleman · Holdingdrawn by Miro Heiskanen2 min
  • 4:56DALMavrik Bourque · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Dustin Wolf2 min

2nd

  • 5:25CGYNazem Kadri · Roughingdrawn by Lian Bichsel2 min
  • 5:25DALLian Bichsel · Roughingdrawn by Nazem Kadri2 min
  • 9:51CGYJoel Hanley · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 14:56DALMiro Heiskanen · Holdingdrawn by Joel Farabee2 min
  • 15:32CGYMacKenzie Weegar · Trippingdrawn by Sam Steel2 min
  • 19:03CGYAdam Klapka · Interferencedrawn by Adam Erne2 min

3rd

  • 1:44CGYJoel Hanley · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 16:58DALMavrik Bourque · Interferencedrawn by Adam Klapka2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CGY goalDAL goalFinal: CGY 0%

Biggest swing: Mavrik Bourque, 2nd 2:26 — DAL 63% → 80%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Gridin · Missed · xG 0.13N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.12N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.11M. Frost · Goal · xG 0.11C. Zary · On goal · xG 0.09C. Zary · On goal · xG 0.07J. Beecher · On goal · xG 0.07J. Beecher · Missed · xG 0.07M. Coronato · Missed · xG 0.06K. Bahl · Missed · xG 0.06M. Coronato · On goal · xG 0.06M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.05M. Gridin · On goal · xG 0.05Z. Parekh · Missed · xG 0.05B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.04N. Kadri · Missed · xG 0.04M. Backlund · Missed · xG 0.04A. Klapka · Missed · xG 0.03J. Farabee · Missed · xG 0.03Z. Parekh · On goal · xG 0.03M. Gridin · Missed · xG 0.03M. Backlund · Missed · xG 0.03Z. Parekh · Missed · xG 0.02N. Kadri · Missed · xG 0.02Z. Parekh · On goal · xG 0.02J. Beecher · On goal · xG 0.02M. Frost · On goal · xG 0.02M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.01K. Bahl · On goal · xG 0.01K. Bahl · On goal · xG 0.01J. Farabee · On goal · xG 0.01M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.01M. Gridin · On goal · xG 0.00J. Hanley · On goal · xG 0.00
CGY1 G · 1.5 xG · 34 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DALvsCGY
3.26 G
All situations
1 G1.5
2.45 G
Even strength
1 G1.3
0.81 G
Power play
0 G0.2
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 78 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DAL77%23%CGY

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.04 – 1.53

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DALvsCGY
35
Shots on goal
21
60%
Faceoffs
40%
1/5
Power play
0/3
8
Penalty minutes
12
16
Hits
18
11
Blocked shots
20
16
Giveaways
22
5
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Dallas Stars skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
55T. HarleyD011+210.08010—22:52
4M. HeiskanenD000+220.03002—20:55
5N. LundkvistD011+220.02020—20:26
23E. LindellD011+220.19110—20:23
22M. BourqueC101050.20004018:37
21J. RobertsonL022030.17000—18:02
53W. JohnstonC112020.331106717:59
49J. HryckowianC000000.321007517:00
46I. LyubushkinD000000.00030—16:14
6L. BichselD000010.02112—15:36
18S. SteelC213+330.16110013:52
25A. HyryR000+120.303005313:43
10O. BäckC000+110.391005013:40
15C. BlackwellC000+130.091008013:39
95M. DucheneC044+300.000004713:07
73A. ErneL000050.65500—12:39
14J. BennL112+120.14010—11:43
11N. BastianR101+110.06100—11:33
Dallas Stars goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1C. DeSmith(W)21201.9521.54+0.5460:00

Season series

DAL leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).