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Maple Leafs at Panthers
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
1
Florida Panthers
▸5
FinalTV SCRIPPS, TVAS·Amerant Bank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Florida Panthers beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 5-1. The Panthers scored first and never trailed. The Panthers led 3-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Carter Verhaeghe's goal at 5:13 of the first period, which took the Panthers' chances from 67% to 79%. Expected goals favored the Panthers, 4.9 to 2.4; shots on goal were TOR 30, FLA 37. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Panthers win a replay of these chances 65% of the time. Joseph Woll stopped 32 of 35 (.914); Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 29 of 30 (.967), 1.4 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Evan Rodrigues (1 G, 1 A), 2. Sergei Bobrovsky (29 saves, .967), 3. Brad Marchand (2 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    FLA
    E. Rodrigues1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    FLA
    S. Bobrovsky29 saves, .967
  3. ★★★
    FLA
    B. Marchand2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR07011112130
FLAFLA316010211537

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. FLA
    B. Marchand(26)
    A. Lundell (25)
    wristxG 0.36win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    3:18
  2. FLA
    C. Verhaeghe(17)PPG
    E. Rodrigues (16), A. Lundell (26)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +13 ptsVideo
    0-2
    5:13
  3. FLA
    E. Rodrigues(11)SHG
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.23win prob +11 ptsVideo
    0-3
    16:40

3rd period

  1. TOR
    J. Tavares(22)PPG
    A. Matthews (24), O. Ekman-Larsson (27)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +6 ptsVideo
    1-3
    0:47
  2. FLA
    B. Marchand(27)EN
    Unassisted
    snapxG 0.32win prob +1 ptsVideo
    1-4
    16:51
  3. FLA
    M. Tkachuk(4)EN
    S. Bennett (24), S. Reinhart (29)
    wristxG 0.51Video
    1-5
    18:08

Penalties

TOR 8 PIM·FLA 8 PIM

1st

  • 3:37TORNicolas Roy · Trippingdrawn by Matthew Tkachuk2 min
  • 15:43FLAAaron Ekblad · Hookingdrawn by Matias Maccelli2 min

2nd

  • 5:30TORJake McCabe · Slashingdrawn by Sandis Vilmanis2 min
  • 11:09FLAMackie Samoskevich · Slashingdrawn by Matthew Knies2 min
  • 18:49FLAAaron Ekblad · Roughingdrawn by Simon Benoit2 min
  • 18:49TORSimon Benoit · Roughingdrawn by Aaron Ekblad2 min
  • 18:49FLAAaron Ekblad · Roughingdrawn by Simon Benoit2 min

3rd

  • 10:01TORMatias Maccelli · Trippingdrawn by Aaron Ekblad2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
FLA goalTOR goalFinal: FLA 100%

Biggest swing: Carter Verhaeghe, 1st 5:13 — FLA 67% → 79%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Marchand · Missed · xG 0.73M. Tkachuk · Goal · xG 0.51B. Marchand · Goal · xG 0.36B. Marchand · Goal · xG 0.32E. Rodrigues · Goal · xG 0.23S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.23J. Petry · Missed · xG 0.20E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.16M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.14S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.13C. Verhaeghe · On goal · xG 0.12S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.11E. Luostarinen · On goal · xG 0.11C. Verhaeghe · Goal · xG 0.10A. Greer · On goal · xG 0.09E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.09S. Bennett · Missed · xG 0.08E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.07E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.07E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.06E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.06M. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.06M. Samoskevich · On goal · xG 0.06M. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.06E. Rodrigues · Missed · xG 0.05E. Luostarinen · On goal · xG 0.05B. Marchand · On goal · xG 0.05J. Petry · On goal · xG 0.05A. Greer · On goal · xG 0.05M. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.05S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.04M. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.04M. Samoskevich · On goal · xG 0.04M. Samoskevich · On goal · xG 0.04B. Marchand · Missed · xG 0.04G. Forsling · On goal · xG 0.04E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.03A. Lundell · On goal · xG 0.02U. Balinskis · On goal · xG 0.02S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.02C. Verhaeghe · On goal · xG 0.02D. Sebrango · Missed · xG 0.02J. Petry · Missed · xG 0.01E. Luostarinen · Missed · xG 0.01M. Samoskevich · Missed · xG 0.01D. Sebrango · Missed · xG 0.01M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.01A. Ekblad · On goal · xG 0.01G. Forsling · On goal · xG 0.01A. Lundell · Missed · xG 0.01E. Luostarinen · On goal · xG 0.01E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.01S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.00
FLA5 G · 4.9 xG · 53 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsFLA
2.41 G
All situations
3 G4.9
1.80 G
Even strength
1 G2.5
0.61 G
Power play
1 G0.6
0.00 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 94 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR35%65%FLA

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.40 – 3.30

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsFLA
30
Shots on goal
37
44%
Faceoffs
56%
1/3
Power play
1/3
8
Penalty minutes
8
21
Hits
19
12
Blocked shots
10
15
Giveaways
14
4
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
28T. StecherD000010.02010—21:14
95O. Ekman-LarssonD011-310.02030—20:56
22J. McCabeD000-130.05202—20:44
44M. RiellyD000-120.07100—19:11
91J. TavaresC101-330.340004818:38
34A. MatthewsC011-420.171105718:34
88W. NylanderR000-310.27010—18:11
23M. KniesL000-440.47100—17:17
25B. CarloD000000.00200—16:53
63M. MaccelliL000-130.33002—15:09
55N. RoyC000020.112322015:01
24S. LaughtonC000020.041106014:25
2S. BenoitD000010.09312—14:18
74B. McMannC000020.02200014:05
11M. DomiC000-210.032005013:54
18S. LorentzC000000.15110013:45
89N. RobertsonL000020.16000—12:01
81D. JoshuaC000000.08300011:01
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
60J. Woll(L)35323.9143.33+0.3359:07

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).