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Maple Leafs at Oilers
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Edmonton Oilers

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸5
Edmonton Oilers
2
FinalTV SN, TVAS·Rogers Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Edmonton Oilers 5-2. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Kasperi Kapanen's goal at 4:27 of the third period, which took the Oilers' chances from 26% to 52%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 3.6 to 3.1; shots on goal were TOR 27, EDM 36. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 50% of the time. Anthony Stolarz stopped 34 of 36 (.944), 1.1 goals saved above expected; Connor Ingram stopped 22 of 26 (.846), 0.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Matias Maccelli (2 G), 2. Kasperi Kapanen (1 G), 3. Matthew Knies (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    M. Maccelli2 G
  2. ★★
    EDM
    K. Kapanen1 G
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    M. Knies1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR0821237527
EDMEDM09117110236

Scoring

7 goals

2nd period

  1. TOR
    M. Maccelli(9)
    J. McCabe (15)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +10 ptsVideo
    1-0
    7:12
  2. EDM
    J. Walman(5)
    J. Samanski (2), J. Roslovic (9)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +19 ptsVideo
    1-1
    11:09
  3. TOR
    M. Knies(14)
    N. Roy (15)
    backhandxG 0.13win prob +19 ptsVideo
    2-1
    11:18

3rd period

  1. EDM
    K. Kapanen(4)
    V. Podkolzin (12), T. Emberson (10)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +27 ptsVideo
    2-2
    4:27
  2. TOR
    J. Tavares(20)PPG
    W. Nylander (34), M. Knies (32)
    tip-inxG 0.18win prob +27 ptsVideo
    3-2
    7:42
  3. TOR
    M. Maccelli(10)PPG
    M. Domi (22), O. Ekman-Larsson (26)
    snapxG 0.11win prob +14 ptsVideo
    4-2
    8:13
  4. TOR
    B. McMann(19)EN
    A. Matthews (22)
    wristxG 0.49win prob +1 ptsVideo
    5-2
    17:22

Penalties

TOR 9 PIM·EDM 21 PIM

1st

  • 11:00TOROliver Ekman-Larsson · Trippingdrawn by Connor McDavid2 min
  • 16:24EDMAndrew Mangiapane · Roughingdrawn by Oliver Ekman-Larsson2 min
  • 16:24TOROliver Ekman-Larsson · Roughingdrawn by Andrew Mangiapane2 min

2nd

  • 5:17TORBrandon Carlo · Fightingdrawn by Darnell Nurse5 min
  • 5:17EDMDarnell Nurse · Fightingdrawn by Brandon Carlo5 min

3rd

  • 6:38EDMMatt Savoie · Interferencedrawn by Troy Stecher2 min
  • 6:44EDMMattias Janmark · High stickingdrawn by Auston Matthews2 min
  • 18:56EDMTrent Frederic · Misconduct10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
EDM goalTOR goalFinal: EDM 0%

Biggest swing: Kasperi Kapanen, 3rd 4:27 — EDM 26% → 52%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.21R. Nugent-Hopkins · On goal · xG 0.20A. Mangiapane · On goal · xG 0.18R. Nugent-Hopkins · Missed · xG 0.16C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.16C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.14K. Kapanen · Goal · xG 0.14Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.14C. McDavid · Missed · xG 0.12L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.12L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.10M. Janmark · Missed · xG 0.09R. Nugent-Hopkins · On goal · xG 0.09R. Nugent-Hopkins · Missed · xG 0.08A. Mangiapane · On goal · xG 0.07V. Podkolzin · Missed · xG 0.07T. Frederic · On goal · xG 0.07L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.07A. Mangiapane · On goal · xG 0.06E. Bouchard · On goal · xG 0.06C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.06L. Draisaitl · Missed · xG 0.06E. Bouchard · On goal · xG 0.06K. Kapanen · On goal · xG 0.06K. Kapanen · Missed · xG 0.05L. Draisaitl · Missed · xG 0.05C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.05J. Roslovic · On goal · xG 0.04M. Savoie · On goal · xG 0.04D. Nurse · Missed · xG 0.03J. Walman · Goal · xG 0.03J. Walman · On goal · xG 0.03K. Kapanen · On goal · xG 0.03R. Nugent-Hopkins · Missed · xG 0.02T. Frederic · On goal · xG 0.02M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.02J. Roslovic · On goal · xG 0.02J. Walman · On goal · xG 0.02D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.02D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.02M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.01D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.01V. Podkolzin · On goal · xG 0.01D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.01J. Walman · On goal · xG 0.00J. Samanski · On goal · xG 0.00M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.00
EDM2 G · 3.1 xG · 47 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsEDM
3.64 G
All situations
2 G3.1
2.62 G
Even strength
2 G2.8
0.52 G
Power play
0 G0.3
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 85 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR50%50%EDM

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.11 – 3.11

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsEDM
27
Shots on goal
36
54%
Faceoffs
46%
2/2
Power play
0/1
9
Penalty minutes
21
13
Hits
19
19
Blocked shots
7
18
Giveaways
13
4
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
22J. McCabeD011+240.02130—25:16
28T. StecherD000-110.02010—22:35
95O. Ekman-LarssonD011-200.04004—22:19
34A. MatthewsC011000.240006821:11
25B. CarloD000+110.03135—19:22
2S. BenoitD000+100.00130—17:47
88W. NylanderR011+130.1901010017:46
74B. McMannC101050.95400017:36
11M. DomiC011-120.3601010017:00
23M. KniesL112+110.19100—15:28
24S. LaughtonC000020.192104515:05
91J. TavaresC101+120.450102714:54
55N. RoyC011+110.130005514:42
51P. MyersD000+100.00010—11:36
63M. MaccelliL202+140.65020—11:29
89N. RobertsonL000+110.20120—11:25
18S. LorentzC000-100.00200011:09
19C. JarnkrokC000-100.00000009:20
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41A. Stolarz(W)36342.9443.11+1.1160:00

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).