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Oilers at Maple Leafs
NHL

Edmonton Oilers at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Edmonton Oilers
▸6
Toronto Maple Leafs
3
FinalTV SN, CBC·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Edmonton Oilers beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 6-3. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Oilers led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Darnell Nurse's goal at 19:29 of the second period, which took the Oilers' chances from 47% to 71%. Expected goals were close — EDM 3.3, TOR 3.5; shots on goal were EDM 37, TOR 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Tristan Jarry stopped 25 of 28 (.893), 0.5 goals saved above expected; Dennis Hildeby stopped 27 of 32 (.844), 3.0 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Connor McDavid (2 G, 1 A), 2. Vasily Podkolzin (2 G), 3. Leon Draisaitl (3 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    EDM
    C. McDavid2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    EDM
    V. Podkolzin2 G
  3. ★★★
    EDM
    L. Draisaitl3 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
EDMEDM112213312637
TORTOR11011216328

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. EDM
    C. McDavid(17)
    E. Bouchard (24)
    wristxG 0.26win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-0
    3:25
  2. TOR
    E. Cowan(4)
    S. Laughton (1), S. Lorentz (6)
    backhandxG 0.18win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-1
    16:03

2nd period

  1. TOR
    O. Ekman-Larsson(5)
    M. Knies (22), M. Domi (9)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +17 ptsVideo
    1-2
    4:54
  2. EDM
    C. McDavid(18)
    Unassisted
    xG 0.04win prob +18 ptsVideo
    2-2
    10:29
  3. EDM
    D. Nurse(6)
    L. Draisaitl (24), C. McDavid (33)
    snapxG 0.13win prob +24 ptsVideo
    3-2
    19:29

3rd period

  1. EDM
    V. Podkolzin(7)
    L. Draisaitl (25), A. Regula (1)
    deflectedxG 0.14win prob +18 ptsVideo
    4-2
    1:21
  2. EDM
    V. Podkolzin(8)
    L. Draisaitl (26), M. Savoie (5)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +8 ptsVideo
    5-2
    1:55
  3. EDM
    Z. Hyman(6)
    R. Nugent-Hopkins (18)
    backhandxG 0.08win prob +1 ptsVideo
    6-2
    9:28
  4. TOR
    S. Lorentz(3)
    J. McCabe (10), T. Stecher (4)
    slapxG 0.10Video
    6-3
    19:12

Penalties

EDM 2 PIM·TOR 4 PIM

1st

  • 3:38TORMax Domi · High stickingdrawn by Vasily Podkolzin2 min

2nd

  • 5:22TORJohn Tavares · Hookingdrawn by Vasily Podkolzin2 min
  • 14:02EDMVasily Podkolzin · Interferencedrawn by Jake McCabe2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalEDM goalFinal: TOR 0%

Biggest swing: Darnell Nurse, 2nd 19:29 — EDM 47% → 71%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Knies · Missed · xG 0.38N. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.27M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.21E. Cowan · Goal · xG 0.18J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.17N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.17N. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.16N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.16N. Roy · On goal · xG 0.14C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.14M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.13M. Domi · On goal · xG 0.13N. Roy · Missed · xG 0.13S. Lorentz · Goal · xG 0.10S. Lorentz · On goal · xG 0.10J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.09A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.09A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.07B. McMann · Missed · xG 0.07C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.06J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.06O. Ekman-Larsson · On goal · xG 0.05M. Domi · On goal · xG 0.05A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.05M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.04A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.04N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.04O. Ekman-Larsson · Goal · xG 0.04W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.04N. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.03M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.03S. Laughton · On goal · xG 0.02W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.02O. Ekman-Larsson · On goal · xG 0.01H. Thrun · On goal · xG 0.01S. Lorentz · Missed · xG 0.01T. Stecher · Missed · xG 0.01S. Lorentz · On goal · xG 0.01M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.01M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.01T. Stecher · Missed · xG 0.01S. Benoit · Missed · xG 0.00S. Laughton · Missed · xG 0.00E. Cowan · On goal · xG 0.00A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.00M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR3 G · 3.5 xG · 46 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

EDMvsTOR
3.36 G
All situations
3 G3.5
2.46 G
Even strength
3 G2.6
0.90 G
Power play
0 G0.9
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 99 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
EDM47%53%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.29 – 3.45

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

EDMvsTOR
37
Shots on goal
28
53%
Faceoffs
47%
0/2
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
4
17
Hits
25
10
Blocked shots
15
18
Giveaways
24
5
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Edmonton Oilers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
25D. NurseD101+310.19110—21:50
2E. BouchardD011+220.09010—21:34
75A. RegulaD011+310.12000—21:15
29L. DraisaitlC033+330.490006321:08
97C. McDavidC213+320.420005419:42
14M. EkholmD000010.03110—18:32
18Z. HymanL101+320.34000—18:04
93R. Nugent-HopkinsC011+220.21000017:18
49T. EmbersonD000-130.05350—17:12
24S. StastneyD000-140.06010—16:22
19A. HenriqueC000-110.050004315:11
22M. SavoieC011+230.030005015:10
13M. JanmarkC000-120.04000014:54
92V. PodkolzinR202+240.55502—14:01
10T. FredericC000-110.3260010013:39
88A. MangiapaneL000-110.01000—13:02
20C. LazarC000-110.041005010:48
86D. TomasekR000-130.26010—08:18
Edmonton Oilers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35T. Jarry(W)28253.8933.52+0.5260:00

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).