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Avalanche at Senators
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
2
Ottawa Senators
▸5
FinalTV ALT, SN·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Colorado Avalanche 5-2. The Senators scored first and never trailed. The Senators led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Ridly Greig's goal at 14:22 of the second period, which took the Senators' chances from 53% to 73%. Expected goals favored the Senators, 4.4 to 1.9; shots on goal were COL 18, OTT 23. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 58% of the time. Mackenzie Blackwood stopped 18 of 21 (.857), 0.7 goals below expected; James Reimer stopped 16 of 18 (.889). Three stars: 1. Nick Cousins (1 G), 2. Tim Stützle (1 G, 1 A), 3. Claude Giroux (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    N. Cousins1 G
  2. ★★
    OTT
    T. Stützle1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    C. Giroux1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL0414110218
OTTOTT092638523

Scoring

7 goals

2nd period

  1. OTT
    N. Cousins(7)
    A. Zub (14), T. Stützle (31)
    backhandxG 0.06win prob +16 ptsVideo
    0-1
    3:21
  2. COL
    P. Kelly(11)
    B. Nelson (19), K. Middleton (1)
    snapxG 0.09win prob +20 ptsVideo
    1-1
    14:05
  3. OTT
    R. Greig(9)
    T. Kleven (9), J. Spence (13)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +20 ptsVideo
    1-2
    14:22

3rd period

  1. OTT
    C. Giroux(10)
    D. Batherson (26), N. Jensen (11)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-3
    2:06
  2. COL
    V. Nichushkin(12)
    J. Drury (9)
    backhandxG 0.26win prob +15 ptsVideo
    2-3
    3:30
  3. OTT
    B. Tkachuk(13)EN
    J. Sanderson (32)
    wristxG 0.56win prob +6 ptsVideo
    2-4
    17:44
  4. OTT
    T. Stützle(24)EN
    T. Chabot (17), A. Zub (15)
    wristxG 0.96Video
    2-5
    18:53

Penalties

COL 6 PIM·OTT 0 PIM

1st

  • 1:20COLSam Malinski · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 17:13COLTaylor Makar · Hookingdrawn by Drake Batherson2 min

2nd

  • 10:06COLArtturi Lehkonen · Hookingdrawn by Thomas Chabot2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalCOL goalFinal: OTT 100%

Biggest swing: Ridly Greig, 2nd 14:22 — OTT 53% → 73%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Stützle · Goal · xG 0.96B. Tkachuk · Goal · xG 0.56M. Amadio · Missed · xG 0.56L. Eller · On goal · xG 0.30C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.19N. Cousins · On goal · xG 0.17D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.14C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.13B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.12T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.12F. Zetterlund · On goal · xG 0.12R. Greig · Goal · xG 0.11N. Cousins · On goal · xG 0.09D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.08T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.08C. Giroux · Goal · xG 0.08B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.07X. Bourgault · Missed · xG 0.06N. Cousins · Goal · xG 0.06T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.06B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.06R. Greig · Missed · xG 0.04C. Giroux · Missed · xG 0.03T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.03J. Spence · Missed · xG 0.03B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.02T. Kleven · On goal · xG 0.01C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.01A. Zub · Missed · xG 0.01B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.01J. Sanderson · On goal · xG 0.01S. Pinto · Missed · xG 0.01A. Zub · On goal · xG 0.01
OTT5 G · 4.4 xG · 33 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsOTT
1.92 G
All situations
3 G4.4
1.62 G
Even strength
3 G1.6
0.30 G
Power play
0 G0.7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 70 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL42%58%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.88 – 2.27

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsOTT
18
Shots on goal
23
62%
Faceoffs
38%
0/0
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
0
22
Hits
31
10
Blocked shots
10
16
Giveaways
13
3
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. MakarD000-240.31030—27:22
29N. MacKinnonC000-310.120108323:36
88M. NecasC000-300.06300022:37
11B. NelsonC011-200.000104322:23
84B. BurnsD000010.02000—21:45
42J. MansonD000-110.08400—20:55
70S. MalinskiD000020.13112—20:52
49S. GirardD000-100.00200—17:04
62A. LehkonenL000+100.00202—16:51
18J. DruryC011-110.042007516:30
13V. NichushkinR101-120.33110—15:59
95V. OlofssonL000-220.39000—15:22
17P. KellyC101-120.35210014:04
94J. KivirantaL000-100.00020—11:41
67K. MiddletonD011000.00200—10:23
54G. BrindleyC000010.02100008:43
16T. MakarL000000.00102—05:30
93Z. BardakovC000010.05100004:42
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
39M. Blackwood(L)21183.8572.28-0.7257:41

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).