Skip to content
Avalanche at Maple Leafs
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
▸4
Toronto Maple Leafs
1
FinalTV NHLN, ALT·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 4-1. The Avalanche scored first and never trailed. The Avalanche led 3-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Brock Nelson's goal at 7:31 of the first period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 59% to 74%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 4.4 to 3.2; shots on goal were COL 37, TOR 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 52% of the time. Mackenzie Blackwood stopped 32 of 33 (.970), 2.2 goals saved above expected; Joseph Woll stopped 33 of 36 (.917). Three stars: 1. Brock Nelson (3 G), 2. Mackenzie Blackwood (32 saves, .970), 3. Jack Drury (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    B. Nelson3 G
  2. ★★
    COL
    M. Blackwood32 saves, .970
  3. ★★★
    COL
    J. Drury1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL21711416437
TORTOR06013114133

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    B. Nelson(25)
    C. Makar (41)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-0
    6:19
  2. COL
    B. Nelson(26)
    A. Lehkonen (21), V. Nichushkin (17)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +15 ptsVideo
    2-0
    7:31

2nd period

  1. COL
    J. Drury(8)
    P. Kelly (9), J. Kiviranta (4)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +9 ptsVideo
    3-0
    18:53

3rd period

  1. COL
    B. Nelson(27)EN
    N. MacKinnon (50)
    wristxG 0.62Video
    4-0
    17:41
  2. TOR
    M. Domi(7)PPG
    B. McMann (11), E. Cowan (10)
    wristxG 0.25Video
    4-1
    18:58

Penalties

COL 6 PIM·TOR 4 PIM

1st

  • 10:34COLArtturi Lehkonen · Slashingdrawn by John Tavares2 min
  • 16:36TORSimon Benoit · Trippingdrawn by Josh Manson2 min

2nd

  • 15:43TORBrandon Carlo · Holdingdrawn by Cale Makar2 min

3rd

  • 8:03COLJosh Manson · High stickingdrawn by Matthew Knies2 min
  • 18:25COLZakhar Bardakov · Delaying game face off violation2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalCOL goalFinal: TOR 0%

Biggest swing: Brock Nelson, 1st 7:31 — COL 59% → 74%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.26M. Domi · Goal · xG 0.25A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.21M. Maccelli · On goal · xG 0.19M. Knies · Missed · xG 0.19E. Cowan · On goal · xG 0.15M. Maccelli · On goal · xG 0.14N. Roy · Missed · xG 0.10T. Stecher · On goal · xG 0.09N. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.09S. Laughton · Missed · xG 0.09A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.09B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.09S. Laughton · Missed · xG 0.07M. Knies · Missed · xG 0.07O. Ekman-Larsson · On goal · xG 0.07J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.07A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.07A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.07B. McMann · Missed · xG 0.07M. Maccelli · On goal · xG 0.06J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.05S. Laughton · Missed · xG 0.05B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.05A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.05N. Roy · On goal · xG 0.05M. Maccelli · On goal · xG 0.05A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.04B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.04A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.03E. Cowan · On goal · xG 0.03M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.03S. Laughton · Missed · xG 0.03M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.03S. Laughton · On goal · xG 0.03A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.02N. Roy · Missed · xG 0.02S. Laughton · On goal · xG 0.01M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.01J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.01S. Benoit · Missed · xG 0.01T. Stecher · Missed · xG 0.01T. Stecher · On goal · xG 0.01N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.01B. Carlo · On goal · xG 0.01T. Stecher · Missed · xG 0.01S. Laughton · Missed · xG 0.01M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.00M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.00S. Benoit · On goal · xG 0.00S. Laughton · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR1 G · 3.2 xG · 51 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsTOR
4.43 G
All situations
1 G3.2
2.63 G
Even strength
0 G1.9
0.60 G
Power play
1 G1.2
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 102 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL52%48%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.19 – 3.05

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsTOR
37
Shots on goal
33
44%
Faceoffs
56%
0/2
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
4
14
Hits
28
8
Blocked shots
16
17
Giveaways
14
3
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. MakarD011+260.26020—23:28
29N. MacKinnonC011+220.411004723:18
70S. MalinskiD000+150.23000—21:09
88M. NecasC000+120.32100020:57
84B. BurnsD000+100.00000—20:50
11B. NelsonC303+341.370004220:37
42J. MansonD000+230.10442—20:19
49S. GirardD000+200.02000—19:38
95V. OlofssonL000+120.29000—18:12
13V. NichushkinR011+140.69100—17:04
62A. LehkonenL011+120.15002—16:07
18J. DruryC101+110.070007515:22
17P. KellyC011+110.30310011:29
15J. AhcanD000020.02010—10:46
54G. BrindleyC000010.06000010:32
16T. MakarL000010.08100—09:56
94J. KivirantaL011+110.04200—08:53
93Z. BardakovC000000.001025006:50
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
39M. Blackwood(W)33321.9703.17+2.1760:00

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).