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Maple Leafs at Avalanche
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸4
Colorado Avalanche
3
Final/OTTV ALT, KTVD·Ball Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Colorado Avalanche 4-3 in overtime, William Nylander scoring at 3:59. The lead changed hands 3 times. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was William Nylander's goal at 3:59 of overtime, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 3.2 to 2.3; shots on goal were TOR 31, COL 34. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 65% of the time. Joseph Woll stopped 31 of 34 (.912); Trent Miner stopped 28 of 31 (.903), 1.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. William Nylander (1 G, 1 A), 2. Nathan MacKinnon (3 A), 3. Martin Necas (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    W. Nylander1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon3 A
  3. ★★★
    COL
    M. Necas1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
TORTOR114191513431
COLCOL2130711202334

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    E. Cowan(7)
    Unassisted
    xG 0.01win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-0
    11:15
  2. COL
    C. Makar(14)
    M. Necas (36), N. MacKinnon (43)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-1
    16:12
  3. COL
    B. Nelson(22)PPG
    N. MacKinnon (44), C. Makar (39)
    slapxG 0.13win prob +10 ptsVideo
    1-2
    17:53

2nd period

  1. TOR
    B. McMann(14)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.07win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-2
    2:12

3rd period

  1. TOR
    A. Matthews(22)
    W. Nylander (30), O. Ekman-Larsson (19)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +27 ptsVideo
    3-2
    10:24
  2. COL
    M. Necas(21)
    N. MacKinnon (45)
    tip-inxG 0.23win prob +35 ptsVideo
    3-3
    12:55

Overtime

  1. TOR
    W. Nylander(16)
    O. Ekman-Larsson (20), A. Matthews (15)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +51 ptsVideo
    4-3
    3:59

Penalties

TOR 8 PIM·COL 6 PIM

1st

  • 13:29COLCale Makar · Trippingdrawn by Brandon Carlo2 min
  • 17:48TORMorgan Rielly · Interferencedrawn by Parker Kelly2 min

2nd

  • 9:18COLIvan Ivan · High stickingdrawn by John Tavares2 min

3rd

  • 4:31TORBobby McMann · Trippingdrawn by Cale Makar2 min
  • 10:08TORScott Laughton · High stickingdrawn by Martin Necas2 min
  • 10:08COLMartin Necas · Holdingdrawn by Scott Laughton2 min
  • 17:18TORAuston Matthews · Trippingdrawn by Martin Necas2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalTOR goalFinal: COL 0%

Biggest swing: William Nylander, OT 3:59 — TOR 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.24M. Necas · Goal · xG 0.23N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.23M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.15R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.14M. Necas · Missed · xG 0.14B. Nelson · Missed · xG 0.14B. Nelson · Goal · xG 0.13B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.12R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.11B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.11N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.11J. Manson · On goal · xG 0.09M. Necas · Missed · xG 0.09P. Kelly · On goal · xG 0.08B. Nelson · Missed · xG 0.08B. Nelson · Missed · xG 0.08P. Kelly · Missed · xG 0.08C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.06A. Lehkonen · Missed · xG 0.06C. Makar · Goal · xG 0.06B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.06S. Malinski · On goal · xG 0.05R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.05S. Malinski · On goal · xG 0.05V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.05B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.04M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.04R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.04J. Drury · Missed · xG 0.04A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.03B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.02S. Girard · Missed · xG 0.02N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.02V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.02I. Solovyov · On goal · xG 0.02I. Solovyov · On goal · xG 0.01S. Girard · Missed · xG 0.01J. Manson · On goal · xG 0.01B. Burns · Missed · xG 0.01S. Girard · Missed · xG 0.01J. Drury · On goal · xG 0.01B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.01R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.01M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.01V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.00
COL3 G · 3.2 xG · 46 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsCOL
2.34 G
All situations
3 G3.2
1.94 G
Even strength
2 G2.7
0.40 G
Power play
1 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 88 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR35%65%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.27 – 3.15

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsCOL
31
Shots on goal
34
51%
Faceoffs
49%
0/2
Power play
1/3
8
Penalty minutes
6
13
Hits
14
22
Blocked shots
12
15
Giveaways
22
8
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
34A. MatthewsC112+120.241025825:29
22J. McCabeD000-220.18140—22:16
88W. NylanderR112+240.3700010021:29
23M. KniesL000010.03130—21:27
95O. Ekman-LarssonD022020.05010—20:53
44M. RiellyD000+230.16122—20:45
25B. CarloD000+110.00250—20:38
91J. TavaresC000030.300106119:26
28T. StecherD000+100.00000—18:41
74B. McMannC101+160.55102018:06
11M. DomiC000-130.05100017:36
63M. MaccelliL000010.23010—17:29
2S. BenoitD000+110.02310—16:53
55N. RoyC000+110.06010012:14
24S. LaughtonC000-100.040121711:51
53E. CowanR101+210.01110—11:10
18S. LorentzC000-100.00100009:08
89N. RobertsonL000000.00010—01:14
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
60J. Woll(W)34313.9123.16+0.1663:06

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).