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San Jose Sharks at Tampa Bay Lightning

FinalTV The Spot, NBCSCA·Benchmark International Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the San Jose Sharks 4-1. The Sharks scored first; the Lightning answered. The Lightning led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Anthony Cirelli's goal at 1:49 of the second period, which took the Lightning's chances from 53% to 69%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 3.5 to 1.2; shots on goal were SJS 23, TBL 20. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 77% of the time. Yaroslav Askarov stopped 16 of 19 (.842); Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 22 of 23 (.957). Three stars: 1. Brandon Hagel (2 G, 1 A), 2. Andrei Vasilevskiy (22 saves, .957), 3. Dominic James (1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    B. Hagel2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TBL
    A. Vasilevskiy22 saves, .957
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    D. James1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
SJSSJS190509123
TBLTBL162717420

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. SJS
    deflectedxG 0.25win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-0
    14:37
  2. TBL
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-1
    15:10

2nd period

  1. TBL
    pokexG 0.15win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-2
    1:49
  2. TBL
    wristxG 0.14win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-3
    3:17

3rd period

  1. TBL
    B. Hagel(25)EN
    wristxG 0.92Video
    1-4
    17:41

Penalties

SJS 2 PIM·TBL 2 PIM

2nd

  • 6:51SJSRyan Reaves · Holdingdrawn by Declan Carlile2 min
  • 12:57TBLserved by G. Goncalves · Interference bench2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalSJS goalFinal: TBL 100%

Biggest swing: Anthony Cirelli, 2nd 1:49 — TBL 53% → 69%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Hagel · Goal · xG 0.92J. Guentzel · Missed · xG 0.19N. Paul · Missed · xG 0.18Y. Gourde · Missed · xG 0.15A. Cirelli · Goal · xG 0.15J. Guentzel · Goal · xG 0.14D. James · Missed · xG 0.13B. Hagel · Goal · xG 0.12N. Paul · Missed · xG 0.11D. James · Missed · xG 0.09Z. Girgensons · Missed · xG 0.09P. Holmberg · Missed · xG 0.09D. James · On goal · xG 0.08D. James · Missed · xG 0.07D. Raddysh · Missed · xG 0.06N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.06O. Bjorkstrand · On goal · xG 0.06P. Holmberg · Missed · xG 0.06P. Holmberg · On goal · xG 0.06P. Holmberg · On goal · xG 0.06J. Guentzel · Missed · xG 0.05D. James · On goal · xG 0.05D. Raddysh · Missed · xG 0.05B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.04N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.04B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.04J. Guentzel · Missed · xG 0.04B. Hagel · Missed · xG 0.04D. Raddysh · Missed · xG 0.04D. James · Missed · xG 0.03B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.03D. James · On goal · xG 0.03N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.02P. Holmberg · On goal · xG 0.02P. Holmberg · Missed · xG 0.02Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.02D. James · On goal · xG 0.01D. Carlile · Missed · xG 0.01D. Carlile · Missed · xG 0.01E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.01Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.01D. Raddysh · Missed · xG 0.01J. Moser · Missed · xG 0.00Z. Girgensons · Missed · xG 0.00
TBL4 G · 3.5 xG · 44 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

SJSvsTBL
1.21 G
All situations
3 G3.5
1.01 G
Even strength
3 G2.5
0.20 G
Power play
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 71 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
SJS23%77%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.16 – 2.53

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

SJSvsTBL
23
Shots on goal
20
56%
Faceoffs
44%
0/1
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
2
29
Hits
13
18
Blocked shots
14
13
Giveaways
18
7
Takeaways
1

Box score

every player line
San Jose Sharks skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
3J. KlingbergD000-130.08010—22:39
38M. FerraroD000020.14000—22:37
37T. LiljegrenD000020.05010—21:15
21A. WennbergC011-200.001205021:11
9D. OrlovD000010.02320—21:02
72W. EklundL011-200.00110—20:14
71M. CelebriniC000-150.140207719:00
2W. SmithC000-120.15000017:21
73T. ToffoliC101-110.25520016:54
51C. GrafR000010.11400—15:56
6S. DickinsonD000-210.01200—15:07
5V. DesharnaisD000-210.00130—14:09
77M. MisaC000-100.000105012:36
63Z. OstapchukC000000.004106012:32
75R. ReavesR000010.11302—12:19
23B. GoodrowC000020.11420012:13
84P. RegendaL000-110.00000—11:56
81A. GaudetteR000-200.00100—10:27
San Jose Sharks goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
30Y. Askarov(L)19163.8422.53-0.4758:32

Season series

TBL leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).