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Maple Leafs at Mammoth
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Utah Mammoth

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
1
Utah Mammoth
▸6
FinalTV ESPN+, HULU·Delta Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Utah Mammoth beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 6-1. The Mammoth scored first and never trailed. The Mammoth led 4-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Dylan Guenther's goal at 5:26 of the second period, which took the Mammoth's chances from 70% to 85%. Expected goals favored the Mammoth, 5.1 to 2.1; shots on goal were TOR 20, UTA 41. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Mammoth win a replay of these chances 87% of the time. Dennis Hildeby stopped 35 of 41 (.854), 0.8 goals below expected; Karel Vejmelka stopped 19 of 20 (.950), 1.1 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Dylan Guenther (2 G, 1 A), 2. Jack McBain (1 G, 2 A), 3. Daniil But (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    UTA
    D. Guenther2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    UTA
    J. McBain1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    UTA
    D. But1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR060915120
UTAUTA112311218641

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. UTA
    M. Carcone(9)
    N. Schmidt (12), J. Marino (18)
    slapxG 0.07win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    3:22

2nd period

  1. UTA
    D. Guenther(22)
    J. McBain (8), I. Cole (12)
    snapxG 0.03win prob +15 ptsVideo
    0-2
    5:26
  2. UTA
    D. Guenther(23)
    J. McBain (9)
    snapxG 0.18win prob +9 ptsVideo
    0-3
    6:44
  3. UTA
    J. Peterka(16)
    D. But (3), I. Cole (13)
    snapxG 0.01win prob +3 ptsVideo
    0-4
    15:25

3rd period

  1. TOR
    C. Jarnkrok(6)
    O. Ekman-Larsson (21)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +1 ptsVideo
    1-4
    3:30
  2. UTA
    J. McBain(6)
    D. Guenther (17), M. Carcone (8)
    tip-inxG 0.57Video
    1-5
    13:29
  3. UTA
    D. But(3)
    B. Hayton (9), J. Peterka (16)
    snapxG 0.36Video
    1-6
    16:54

Penalties

TOR 6 PIM·UTA 8 PIM

1st

  • 6:51TORWilliam Nylander · Hookingdrawn by Nate Schmidt2 min
  • 7:37UTAJJ Peterka · Hookingdrawn by Simon Benoit2 min
  • 13:13UTABarrett Hayton · Roughingdrawn by Oliver Ekman-Larsson2 min
  • 13:13UTABarrett Hayton · Roughingdrawn by Oliver Ekman-Larsson2 min
  • 13:13TOROliver Ekman-Larsson · Roughingdrawn by Barrett Hayton2 min
  • 15:30TORSimon Benoit · Trippingdrawn by Liam O'Brien2 min

2nd

  • 9:44UTAJack McBain · Hookingdrawn by Auston Matthews2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
UTA goalTOR goalFinal: UTA 100%

Biggest swing: Dylan Guenther, 2nd 5:26 — UTA 70% → 85%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. McBain · Goal · xG 0.57D. But · Goal · xG 0.36B. Hayton · On goal · xG 0.30L. O'Brien · On goal · xG 0.23D. Guenther · Goal · xG 0.18M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.17B. Hayton · On goal · xG 0.17M. Carcone · On goal · xG 0.15N. Schmidt · Missed · xG 0.15M. Carcone · On goal · xG 0.15M. Carcone · On goal · xG 0.14D. Guenther · On goal · xG 0.13J. McBain · Missed · xG 0.11J. McBain · On goal · xG 0.11S. Durzi · On goal · xG 0.11M. Carcone · On goal · xG 0.10C. Keller · On goal · xG 0.09B. Hayton · Missed · xG 0.09N. DeSimone · Missed · xG 0.09J. McBain · On goal · xG 0.08D. Guenther · Missed · xG 0.08J. McBain · On goal · xG 0.08N. Schmidt · Missed · xG 0.08C. Keller · Missed · xG 0.07L. Crouse · On goal · xG 0.07N. Schmaltz · Missed · xG 0.07D. Guenther · On goal · xG 0.07M. Carcone · Goal · xG 0.07J. McBain · On goal · xG 0.07B. Hayton · Missed · xG 0.06D. Guenther · Missed · xG 0.06D. But · On goal · xG 0.06B. Tanev · Missed · xG 0.06D. Guenther · On goal · xG 0.06D. Guenther · On goal · xG 0.06K. Stenlund · Missed · xG 0.05D. Guenther · On goal · xG 0.04M. Carcone · Missed · xG 0.04D. Guenther · Missed · xG 0.04L. O'Brien · Missed · xG 0.04N. Schmaltz · Missed · xG 0.03D. Guenther · Goal · xG 0.03M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.03B. Hayton · On goal · xG 0.03K. Stenlund · Missed · xG 0.03S. Durzi · Missed · xG 0.03D. Guenther · On goal · xG 0.02K. Stenlund · Missed · xG 0.02L. O'Brien · Missed · xG 0.02N. Schmidt · On goal · xG 0.02M. Sergachev · Missed · xG 0.02J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.02N. Schmaltz · Missed · xG 0.02J. Peterka · Goal · xG 0.01S. Durzi · Missed · xG 0.01N. DeSimone · On goal · xG 0.01N. Schmidt · Missed · xG 0.01L. O'Brien · Missed · xG 0.01N. DeSimone · On goal · xG 0.01L. O'Brien · Missed · xG 0.01J. McBain · On goal · xG 0.01J. Marino · On goal · xG 0.01S. Durzi · Missed · xG 0.00J. McBain · On goal · xG 0.00I. Cole · On goal · xG 0.00J. Marino · Missed · xG 0.00S. Durzi · On goal · xG 0.00B. Tanev · On goal · xG 0.00I. Cole · On goal · xG 0.00
UTA6 G · 5.1 xG · 69 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsUTA
2.11 G
All situations
6 G5.1
1.51 G
Even strength
6 G5.0
0.60 G
Power play
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 105 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR13%87%UTA

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.11 – 4.81

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsUTA
20
Shots on goal
41
44%
Faceoffs
56%
0/3
Power play
0/2
6
Penalty minutes
8
21
Hits
21
21
Blocked shots
15
17
Giveaways
14
5
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
22J. McCabeD000-110.03160—22:53
95O. Ekman-LarssonD011+130.24112—21:45
44M. RiellyD000-440.08020—19:37
34A. MatthewsC000-110.340105019:24
74B. McMannC000-100.0630010018:06
2S. BenoitD000-100.02132—17:42
25B. CarloD000-200.00210—17:01
88W. NylanderR000-410.27012—16:49
11M. DomiC000010.00000016:46
28T. StecherD000-300.07020—16:20
63M. MaccelliL000-220.06000—15:03
23M. KniesL000-210.12110—14:45
24S. LaughtonC000000.033103314:44
91J. TavaresC000-310.183106714:31
55N. RoyC000-110.092001113:28
18S. LorentzC000010.14310013:18
19C. JarnkrokC101010.14100013:05
53E. CowanR000-120.23000—10:43
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35D. Hildeby(L)41356.8545.15-0.8560:00

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).