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Mammoth at Maple Leafs
NHL

Utah Mammoth at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Utah Mammoth
3
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸5
FinalTV Utah16, SN·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Utah Mammoth 5-3. The lead changed hands 2 times. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was John Tavares's goal at 8:06 of the third period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 52% to 81%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 3.2 to 1.8; shots on goal were UTA 24, TOR 19. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 57% of the time. Vitek Vanecek stopped 14 of 18 (.778), 1.8 goals below expected; Anthony Stolarz stopped 21 of 24 (.875), 1.2 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Matias Maccelli (1 G, 1 A), 2. Auston Matthews (1 G), 3. John Tavares (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    M. Maccelli1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    A. Matthews1 G
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    J. Tavares1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
UTAUTA181818324
TORTOR052737519

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. UTA
    M. Carcone(3)
    L. Crouse (2)
    wristxG 0.22win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-0
    18:49

2nd period

  1. TOR
    W. Nylander(6)
    M. Knies (13), J. Tavares (11)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +17 ptsVideo
    1-1
    4:46
  2. TOR
    A. Matthews(8)
    M. Maccelli (4), J. McCabe (5)
    snapxG 0.08win prob +18 ptsVideo
    1-2
    8:56
  3. UTA
    M. Sergachev(3)
    D. Simashev (1)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +21 ptsVideo
    2-2
    16:27

3rd period

  1. TOR
    J. Tavares(7)
    B. McMann (2), O. Ekman-Larsson (8)
    backhandxG 0.09win prob +29 ptsVideo
    2-3
    8:06
  2. TOR
    M. Maccelli(3)
    D. Joshua (3), M. Rielly (8)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +9 ptsVideo
    2-4
    15:40
  3. TOR
    M. Knies(5)EN
    W. Nylander (14), J. McCabe (6)
    wristxG 0.61Video
    2-5
    17:01
  4. UTA
    D. Guenther(6)
    N. Schmidt (3), J. Marino (6)
    wristxG 0.13Video
    3-5
    18:53

Penalties

UTA 2 PIM·TOR 6 PIM

1st

  • 12:56TORJohn Tavares · High stickingdrawn by Kailer Yamamoto2 min

2nd

  • 10:35TORScott Laughton · Roughingdrawn by John Marino2 min
  • 13:05TORBrandon Carlo · Trippingdrawn by Barrett Hayton2 min
  • 20:00UTAJack McBain · Cross checkingdrawn by Matthew Knies2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalUTA goalFinal: TOR 100%

Biggest swing: John Tavares, 3rd 8:06 — TOR 52% → 81%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Knies · Goal · xG 0.61W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.45S. Lorentz · Missed · xG 0.23A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.23W. Nylander · Goal · xG 0.17W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.15B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.11M. Maccelli · Goal · xG 0.10B. McMann · Missed · xG 0.10N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.10A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.10J. Tavares · Goal · xG 0.09A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.08N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.08J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.08J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.07M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.06J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.06J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.06B. Carlo · On goal · xG 0.05M. Domi · Missed · xG 0.05A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.04M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.04B. Carlo · On goal · xG 0.02N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.02B. Carlo · Missed · xG 0.02M. Domi · On goal · xG 0.02P. Myers · Missed · xG 0.02B. McMann · Missed · xG 0.01M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.01S. Laughton · Missed · xG 0.01M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.01P. Myers · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR5 G · 3.2 xG · 33 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

UTAvsTOR
1.83 G
All situations
4 G3.2
1.43 G
Even strength
4 G2.1
0.40 G
Power play
0 G0.1
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 69 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
UTA43%57%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.82 – 2.18

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

UTAvsTOR
24
Shots on goal
19
45%
Faceoffs
55%
0/3
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
6
17
Hits
15
6
Blocked shots
8
27
Giveaways
19
5
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Utah Mammoth skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
98M. SergachevD101-130.13020—24:26
8N. SchmaltzC000-210.190002522:14
9C. KellerR000-220.11000—20:34
6J. MarinoD011010.01000—20:05
88N. SchmidtD011+210.02110—19:34
92L. CooleyC000-200.143003618:52
26D. SimashevD011020.04100—18:28
11D. GuentherR101-230.29000—18:22
28I. ColeD000-320.00220—17:10
27B. HaytonC000-120.270004515:30
53M. CarconeL101+120.30200—13:51
77J. PeterkaR000-210.03000—13:42
56K. YamamotoR000000.00000—13:23
67L. CrouseL011+100.06210—13:22
22J. McBainC000+110.113028013:20
82K. StenlundC000020.080003613:17
2O. MaattaD000-110.04000—12:22
13B. TanevL000000.00300—11:09
Utah Mammoth goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41V. Vanecek(L)18144.7782.18-1.8258:19

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).