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Ducks at Sabres
NHL

Anaheim Ducks at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Anaheim Ducks
3
Buffalo Sabres
▸5
FinalTV Victory+, MSG-B·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Anaheim Ducks 5-3. The Sabres scored first and never trailed. The Sabres led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Tage Thompson's goal at 7:22 of the second period, which took the Sabres' chances from 70% to 86%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 4.0 to 2.5; shots on goal were ANA 36, BUF 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 59% of the time. Lukas Dostal stopped 27 of 31 (.871), 0.9 goals below expected; Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 33 of 36 (.917). Three stars: 1. Jack Quinn (2 G), 2. Tage Thompson (1 G, 1 A), 3. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (33 saves, .917).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    J. Quinn2 G
  2. ★★
    BUF
    T. Thompson1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    U. Luukkonen33 saves, .917

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
ANAANA08014314336
BUFBUF11211139532

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    J. Quinn(8)
    R. McLeod (17), Z. Benson (14)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +11 ptsVideo
    0-1
    2:03

2nd period

  1. BUF
    T. Thompson(22)
    P. Krebs (12), J. Doan (16)
    tip-inxG 0.25win prob +15 ptsVideo
    0-2
    7:22

3rd period

  1. BUF
    B. Byram(10)
    T. Thompson (19), P. Krebs (13)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +4 ptsVideo
    0-3
    7:09
  2. ANA
    O. Zellweger(6)
    J. LaCombe (22), M. Granlund (10)
    backhandxG 0.09win prob +1 ptsVideo
    1-3
    15:16
  3. BUF
    J. Quinn(9)
    Z. Benson (15), O. Power (11)
    snapxG 0.04win prob +1 ptsVideo
    1-4
    16:00
  4. ANA
    L. Carlsson(18)
    I. Moore (5)
    wristxG 0.02Video
    2-4
    18:02
  5. ANA
    M. McTavish(11)
    L. Carlsson (26), B. Sennecke (20)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +2 ptsVideo
    3-4
    19:12
  6. BUF
    J. Norris(6)EN
    A. Tuch (22)
    backhandxG 0.69win prob +2 ptsVideo
    3-5
    19:49

Penalties

ANA 13 PIM·BUF 13 PIM

1st

  • 7:27ANARadko Gudas · Ps hooking on breakawaydrawn by Zach Benson0 min

2nd

  • 1:07ANAIan Moore · Trippingdrawn by Tage Thompson2 min
  • 2:00ANAOlen Zellweger · Holdingdrawn by Tage Thompson2 min
  • 4:29BUFMattias Samuelsson · Boardingdrawn by Jackson LaCombe2 min
  • 13:02BUFRasmus Dahlin · Roughingdrawn by Ryan Strome2 min

3rd

  • 13:10BUFJosh Doan · Interferencedrawn by Ryan Strome2 min
  • 13:10ANARyan Strome · Slashingdrawn by Josh Doan2 min
  • 13:10BUFJosh Doan · Fightingdrawn by Ryan Strome5 min
  • 13:10ANARyan Strome · Fightingdrawn by Josh Doan5 min
  • 13:10BUFJosh Norris · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Mason McTavish2 min
  • 13:10ANAMason McTavish · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Josh Norris2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalANA goalFinal: BUF 100%

Biggest swing: Tage Thompson, 2nd 7:22 — BUF 70% → 86%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Norris · Goal · xG 0.69Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.29T. Thompson · Goal · xG 0.25A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.21Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.18B. Byram · Missed · xG 0.17J. Zucker · Missed · xG 0.17B. Byram · Goal · xG 0.14Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.14J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.13J. Quinn · Missed · xG 0.12J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.12Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.12J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.11J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.10J. Norris · Missed · xG 0.10J. Quinn · Goal · xG 0.09J. Zucker · Missed · xG 0.09T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.09T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.08P. Krebs · Missed · xG 0.07J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.07J. Norris · Missed · xG 0.06J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.04J. Quinn · Goal · xG 0.04B. Byram · On goal · xG 0.03M. Samuelsson · On goal · xG 0.03R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.03P. Krebs · On goal · xG 0.03Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.03R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.02O. Power · On goal · xG 0.02N. Ostlund · Missed · xG 0.02Z. Metsa · On goal · xG 0.02A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.01J. Bryson · Missed · xG 0.01A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.01A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.01O. Power · On goal · xG 0.01O. Power · On goal · xG 0.01O. Power · On goal · xG 0.00J. Greenway · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF5 G · 4.0 xG · 43 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

ANAvsBUF
2.53 G
All situations
4 G4.0
1.93 G
Even strength
4 G2.1
0.60 G
Power play
0 G0.7
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 95 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
ANA41%59%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.51 – 3.01

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

ANAvsBUF
36
Shots on goal
32
54%
Faceoffs
46%
0/2
Power play
0/2
13
Penalty minutes
13
29
Hits
10
7
Blocked shots
22
20
Giveaways
19
4
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Anaheim Ducks skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
2J. LaCombeD011+210.01030—21:05
98P. MintyukovD000-320.06100—20:58
91L. CarlssonC112050.601005020:03
51O. ZellwegerD101040.23022—19:51
64M. GranlundC011040.310003119:34
7R. GudasD000-130.14400—19:29
45B. SenneckeR011020.09200—19:25
14D. HellesonD000-310.03210—18:58
17A. KillornL000040.51400—18:54
23M. McTavishC101-220.252025516:57
20C. KreiderL000000.0020010015:29
61C. GauthierL000-140.1310010015:03
74I. MooreD011+100.00002—14:24
25R. PoehlingC000030.100003813:55
16R. StromeC000-100.0220710012:31
13N. NesterenkoC000-110.0110010010:47
42T. WasheC000-100.042106710:18
44R. JohnstonL000000.00500—09:33
Anaheim Ducks goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1L. Dostal(L)31274.8713.09-0.9158:46

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).