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Avalanche at Lightning
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
2
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸4
FinalTV The Spot, ALT·Benchmark International Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Colorado Avalanche 4-2. The lead changed hands 2 times. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Brandon Hagel's goal at 8:31 of the third period, which took the Lightning's chances from 52% to 82%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 3.5 to 3.1; shots on goal were COL 33, TBL 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 63% of the time. Scott Wedgewood stopped 24 of 27 (.889), 0.7 goals below expected; Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 31 of 33 (.939), 1.1 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Nikita Kucherov (2 A), 2. Brandon Hagel (1 G, 1 A), 3. Zemgus Girgensons (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    N. Kucherov2 A
  2. ★★
    TBL
    B. Hagel1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    Z. Girgensons1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL07213013233
TBLTBL11211026428

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    J. Guentzel(19)PPG
    N. Kucherov (40), D. Raddysh (23)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    19:48

2nd period

  1. COL
    P. Kelly(8)
    Z. Bardakov (5), I. Solovyov (1)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-1
    3:22
  2. COL
    B. Nelson(19)
    C. Makar (36)
    snapxG 0.04win prob +20 ptsVideo
    2-1
    9:31
  3. TBL
    Z. Girgensons(6)
    Y. Gourde (9), P. Holmberg (7)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +22 ptsVideo
    2-2
    17:22

3rd period

  1. TBL
    B. Hagel(20)
    M. Crozier (9), N. Kucherov (41)
    snapxG 0.12win prob +30 ptsVideo
    2-3
    8:31
  2. TBL
    A. Cirelli(12)EN
    B. Hagel (18), D. Raddysh (24)
    snapxG 0.57win prob +5 ptsVideo
    2-4
    18:35

Penalties

COL 6 PIM·TBL 18 PIM

1st

  • 3:58TBLDarren Raddysh · Holdingdrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min
  • 18:14COLBrent Burns · Trippingdrawn by Nikita Kucherov2 min

2nd

  • 7:28COLZakhar Bardakov · Slashingdrawn by Darren Raddysh2 min

3rd

  • 1:19TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous · Holdingdrawn by Valeri Nichushkin2 min
  • 20:00TBLNick Paul · Roughingdrawn by Martin Necas2 min
  • 20:00COLMartin Necas · Roughingdrawn by Nick Paul2 min
  • 20:00TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous · Roughingdrawn by Artturi Lehkonen2 min
  • 20:00TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous · Misconduct10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalCOL goalFinal: TBL 100%

Biggest swing: Brandon Hagel, 3rd 8:31 — TBL 52% → 82%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Cirelli · Goal · xG 0.57J. Guentzel · Missed · xG 0.32J. Moser · Missed · xG 0.27B. Point · Missed · xG 0.16N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.13O. Bjorkstrand · On goal · xG 0.13B. Hagel · Goal · xG 0.12B. Point · On goal · xG 0.12G. Goncalves · On goal · xG 0.11Z. Girgensons · Goal · xG 0.09J. Guentzel · Goal · xG 0.09A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.09J. Guentzel · Missed · xG 0.09G. Goncalves · Missed · xG 0.09J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.08J. Guentzel · Missed · xG 0.08J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.08J. Guentzel · Missed · xG 0.08B. Point · Missed · xG 0.08B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.07D. Raddysh · On goal · xG 0.07N. Paul · Missed · xG 0.06D. Raddysh · On goal · xG 0.04B. Hagel · Missed · xG 0.04P. Holmberg · On goal · xG 0.04G. Goncalves · On goal · xG 0.04B. Hagel · Missed · xG 0.04N. Paul · Missed · xG 0.03E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.03D. James · On goal · xG 0.03C. D'Astous · On goal · xG 0.02N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.02E. Cernak · Missed · xG 0.02C. D'Astous · On goal · xG 0.01M. Crozier · On goal · xG 0.01O. Bjorkstrand · On goal · xG 0.01D. Raddysh · Missed · xG 0.01D. Raddysh · On goal · xG 0.01M. Crozier · Missed · xG 0.01M. Crozier · On goal · xG 0.01E. Cernak · Missed · xG 0.01J. Moser · On goal · xG 0.01N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.01Z. Girgensons · Missed · xG 0.01Y. Gourde · Missed · xG 0.01D. Raddysh · On goal · xG 0.01J. Moser · On goal · xG 0.01N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.00
TBL4 G · 3.5 xG · 48 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsTBL
3.12 G
All situations
3 G3.5
2.02 G
Even strength
2 G1.7
1.10 G
Power play
1 G0.6

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 94 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL63%37%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.99 – 2.27

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsTBL
33
Shots on goal
28
69%
Faceoffs
31%
0/2
Power play
1/2
6
Penalty minutes
18
20
Hits
21
19
Blocked shots
16
19
Giveaways
12
4
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. MakarD011-210.17050—26:04
29N. MacKinnonC000-250.123006722:37
11B. NelsonC101-140.360107622:14
88M. NecasC000-230.71402021:54
13V. NichushkinR000-200.00100—19:30
42J. MansonD000000.03320—19:02
62A. LehkonenL000-220.24110—18:55
70S. MalinskiD000+130.06220—18:51
49S. GirardD000-110.04020—18:42
84B. BurnsD000040.08012—18:19
18J. DruryC000+110.230105015:54
54G. BrindleyC000-100.00000014:49
28I. SolovyovD011+100.00200—12:53
20R. ColtonC000040.23120012:34
95V. OlofssonL000010.32000—11:54
17P. KellyC101+120.4320010011:20
93Z. BardakovC011+210.01112007:23
16T. MakarL000+110.07010—05:29
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41S. Wedgewood(L)27243.8892.29-0.7158:02

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).