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Lightning at Avalanche
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
2
Colorado Avalanche
▸3
FinalTV TNT, truTV·Ball Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 3-2. The Lightning scored first; the Avalanche answered. The Avalanche led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Victor Olofsson's goal at 4:08 of the second period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 53% to 70%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 3.6 to 2.0; shots on goal were TBL 24, COL 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 73% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 30 of 33 (.909), 0.6 goals saved above expected; Scott Wedgewood stopped 22 of 24 (.917). Three stars: 1. Victor Olofsson (2 G), 2. Ross Colton (1 G), 3. Brayden Point (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    V. Olofsson2 G
  2. ★★
    COL
    R. Colton1 G
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    B. Point1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL190718224
COLCOL11021409333

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    N. Kucherov(5)
    Unassisted
    wrap-aroundxG 0.05win prob +11 ptsVideo
    1-0
    1:37
  2. COL
    V. Olofsson(4)PPG
    N. MacKinnon (10), M. Necas (9)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +10 ptsVideo
    1-1
    13:51

2nd period

  1. COL
    V. Olofsson(5)
    J. Drury (4), G. Landeskog (4)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-2
    4:08
  2. COL
    R. Colton(2)
    S. Malinski (5), B. Nelson (2)
    backhandxG 0.09win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-3
    5:21

3rd period

  1. TBL
    B. Point(3)
    C. D'Astous (2), V. Hedman (10)
    backhandxG 0.05win prob +14 ptsVideo
    2-3
    3:32

Penalties

TBL 13 PIM·COL 11 PIM

1st

  • 5:43TBLCharle-Edouard D'Astous · Fightingdrawn by Gabriel Landeskog5 min
  • 5:43COLGabriel Landeskog · Fightingdrawn by Charle-Edouard D'Astous5 min
  • 10:47TBLPontus Holmberg · Interferencedrawn by Brock Nelson2 min
  • 13:34TBLserved by G. Goncalves · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 17:34COLVictor Olofsson · Trippingdrawn by Nikita Kucherov2 min

2nd

  • 7:21COLJosh Manson · Trippingdrawn by Pontus Holmberg2 min
  • 16:59TBLVictor Hedman · Trippingdrawn by Martin Necas2 min

3rd

  • 1:21COLBrock Nelson · High stickingdrawn by Erik Cernak2 min
  • 14:26TBLZemgus Girgensons · Cross checkingdrawn by Josh Manson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalTBL goalFinal: COL 100%

Biggest swing: Victor Olofsson, 2nd 4:08 — COL 53% → 70%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.24M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.23V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.19M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.18V. Olofsson · Goal · xG 0.15B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.15N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.15V. Olofsson · Goal · xG 0.15V. Nichushkin · Missed · xG 0.13N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.12C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.12N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.11V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.11G. Landeskog · Missed · xG 0.11J. Ahcan · On goal · xG 0.10N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.10V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.10D. Toews · Missed · xG 0.09C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.09M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.09J. Drury · On goal · xG 0.09R. Colton · Goal · xG 0.09A. Lehkonen · On goal · xG 0.08M. Necas · Missed · xG 0.08J. Drury · On goal · xG 0.07R. Colton · Missed · xG 0.07J. Drury · Missed · xG 0.07G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.05N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.04G. Landeskog · Missed · xG 0.04R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.03R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.03G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.03N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.03D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.02J. Manson · On goal · xG 0.02B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.01B. Burns · Missed · xG 0.01D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.01J. Manson · On goal · xG 0.00D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.00V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.00B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.00
COL3 G · 3.6 xG · 43 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsCOL
2.02 G
All situations
3 G3.6
1.42 G
Even strength
2 G2.4
0.60 G
Power play
1 G1.2
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 84 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL27%73%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.01 – 3.36

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsCOL
24
Shots on goal
33
49%
Faceoffs
51%
0/3
Power play
1/4
13
Penalty minutes
11
23
Hits
17
14
Blocked shots
15
14
Giveaways
11
4
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
38B. HagelL000+220.15000—22:21
27R. McDonaghD000020.08050—20:30
86N. KucherovR101+130.30000—19:36
77V. HedmanD011+120.02122—19:04
90J. MoserD000-100.12000—19:00
81E. CernakD000+100.00320—18:57
21B. PointC101-140.361006218:55
71A. CirelliC000-110.010102918:22
37Y. GourdeC000+130.313003117:54
59J. GuentzelC000-100.07100017:18
51C. D'AstousD011010.02305—16:09
28Z. GirgensonsC000-110.122327015:31
22O. BjorkstrandR000020.15210—14:08
17D. JamesC000000.063006713:38
93G. GoncalvesC000000.13100013:32
29P. HolmbergR000020.1200210013:13
24M. CrozierD000-110.01200—10:11
78E. LillebergD000000.00100—08:31
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(L)33303.9093.55+0.5557:00

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).