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Jets at Maple Leafs
NHL

Winnipeg Jets at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Winnipeg Jets
5
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸6
FinalTV NHLN, SNO·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Winnipeg Jets 6-5. The Maple Leafs came back from three goals down. The Jets led 4-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Auston Matthews's goal at 15:38 of the third period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 52% to 91%. Expected goals were close — WPG 3.0, TOR 2.8; shots on goal were WPG 40, TOR 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Jets win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Eric Comrie stopped 24 of 30 (.800), 3.2 goals below expected; Dennis Hildeby stopped 22 of 23 (.957). Three stars: 1. Auston Matthews (3 G, 1 A), 2. Mark Scheifele (2 G, 1 A), 3. Oliver Ekman-Larsson (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    A. Matthews3 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    WPG
    M. Scheifele2 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    O. Ekman-Larsson1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
WPGWPG211217112540
TORTOR07312311630

Scoring

11 goals

1st period

  1. WPG
    G. Vilardi(17)
    M. Scheifele (28), K. Connor (28)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-0
    14:09
  2. WPG
    D. DeMelo(2)
    A. Lowry (5), M. Barron (7)
    slapxG 0.02win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-0
    17:38

2nd period

  1. TOR
    A. Matthews(16)
    M. Domi (14), O. Ekman-Larsson (18)
    tip-inxG 0.17win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-1
    1:34
  2. WPG
    A. Iafallo(7)
    J. Toews (9), C. Perfetti (6)
    backhandxG 0.05win prob +17 ptsVideo
    3-1
    2:11
  3. WPG
    M. Scheifele(19)
    G. Vilardi (18), N. Pionk (5)
    wristxG 0.25win prob +11 ptsVideo
    4-1
    5:24
  4. TOR
    O. Ekman-Larsson(7)
    S. Laughton (2)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +10 ptsVideo
    4-2
    11:04
  5. TOR
    A. Matthews(17)PPG
    M. Rielly (21), M. Maccelli (9)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +13 ptsVideo
    4-3
    19:57

3rd period

  1. TOR
    M. Maccelli(6)
    M. Knies (25), J. Tavares (22)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +28 ptsVideo
    4-4
    6:30
  2. WPG
    M. Scheifele(20)PPG
    J. Morrissey (25), G. Nyquist (8)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +27 ptsVideo
    5-4
    8:50
  3. TOR
    T. Stecher(2)
    B. McMann (9), A. Matthews (13)
    snapxG 0.04win prob +37 ptsVideo
    5-5
    13:13
  4. TOR
    A. Matthews(18)
    Unassisted
    backhandxG 0.18win prob +39 ptsVideo
    5-6
    15:38

Penalties

WPG 2 PIM·TOR 4 PIM

1st

  • 3:47TOROliver Ekman-Larsson · Trippingdrawn by Colin Miller2 min

2nd

  • 18:53WPGNeal Pionk · Interferencedrawn by Matthew Knies2 min

3rd

  • 7:13TORMax Domi · High stickingdrawn by Mark Scheifele2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalWPG goalFinal: TOR 100%

Biggest swing: Auston Matthews, 3rd 15:38 — TOR 52% → 91%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
N. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.26M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.21M. Domi · Missed · xG 0.20A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.18A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.17N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.16N. Roy · On goal · xG 0.15A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.13M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.10O. Ekman-Larsson · Goal · xG 0.10B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.08M. Maccelli · Missed · xG 0.08A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.07N. Roy · Missed · xG 0.06M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.06J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.06M. Maccelli · Goal · xG 0.05M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.05S. Laughton · On goal · xG 0.05M. Knies · On goal · xG 0.05T. Stecher · On goal · xG 0.05N. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.05B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.05E. Cowan · On goal · xG 0.05E. Cowan · On goal · xG 0.04T. Stecher · Goal · xG 0.04N. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.03A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.03T. Stecher · Missed · xG 0.03M. Domi · On goal · xG 0.02C. Jarnkrok · Missed · xG 0.02T. Stecher · Missed · xG 0.02A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.02C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.02M. Knies · Missed · xG 0.01M. Knies · Missed · xG 0.01O. Ekman-Larsson · On goal · xG 0.01O. Ekman-Larsson · On goal · xG 0.01B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.01M. Domi · On goal · xG 0.01E. Cowan · On goal · xG 0.01M. Domi · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR6 G · 2.8 xG · 42 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

WPGvsTOR
3.05 G
All situations
6 G2.8
2.24 G
Even strength
5 G2.4
0.61 G
Power play
1 G0.2
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 95 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
WPG51%49%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.87 – 2.79

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

WPGvsTOR
40
Shots on goal
30
50%
Faceoffs
50%
1/2
Power play
1/1
2
Penalty minutes
4
17
Hits
23
12
Blocked shots
11
14
Giveaways
15
4
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Winnipeg Jets skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
44J. MorrisseyD011-110.01000—22:40
4N. PionkD011-220.08212—22:10
2D. DeMeloD101020.05100—21:59
54D. SambergD000-100.00000—21:18
55M. ScheifeleC213-180.591005020:28
13G. VilardiC112-120.53000020:06
81K. ConnorL011-130.12000—19:34
19J. ToewsC011+100.011007716:20
91C. PerfettiC011+150.11010016:07
9A. IafalloL101+120.22230—15:44
17A. LowryC011020.473205414:37
64L. StanleyD000+110.02000—14:27
6C. MillerD000+110.02210—14:00
14G. NyquistR011-110.01010—13:19
36M. BarronC011020.160105013:17
7V. NamestnikovC000-120.171202511:42
70T. PearsonL000020.08100—11:41
45C. KoepkeL000-140.31300—11:10
Winnipeg Jets goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1E. Comrie(L)30246.8002.80-3.2058:17

Season series

TOR leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).