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Stars at Red Wings
NHL

Dallas Stars at Detroit Red Wings

NHL scoreboard
Dallas Stars
3
Detroit Red Wings
▸4
Final/OTTV TNT, truTV·Little Caesars Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Detroit Red Wings beat the Dallas Stars 4-3 in overtime, Dylan Larkin scoring at 0:34. The lead changed hands 3 times. The Stars led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Dylan Larkin's goal at 0:34 of overtime, which took the Red Wings' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Stars, 3.6 to 2.5; shots on goal were DAL 22, DET 25. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 69% of the time. Casey DeSmith stopped 21 of 25 (.840), 1.5 goals below expected; John Gibson stopped 19 of 22 (.864), 0.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Dylan Larkin (2 G), 2. James van Riemsdyk (1 G, 1 A), 3. Wyatt Johnston (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DET
    D. Larkin2 G
  2. ★★
    DET
    J. van Riemsdyk1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    DAL
    W. Johnston1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
DALDAL052131400322
DETDET160521212425

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. DET
    J. van Riemsdyk(9)
    M. Rasmussen (6), S. Edvinsson (9)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +13 ptsVideo
    0-1
    9:23

2nd period

  1. DAL
    R. Hintz(12)PPG
    M. Rantanen (36), J. Robertson (22)
    snapxG 0.16win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-1
    10:47
  2. DAL
    J. Benn(7)
    M. Duchene (3), J. Hryckowian (7)
    snapxG 0.18win prob +23 ptsVideo
    2-1
    19:16

3rd period

  1. DET
    E. Finnie(9)PPG
    L. Raymond (28), M. Seider (22)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +23 ptsVideo
    2-2
    3:02
  2. DAL
    W. Johnston(20)PPG
    M. Heiskanen (27), M. Rantanen (37)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +27 ptsVideo
    3-2
    11:18
  3. DET
    D. Larkin(19)PPG
    J. van Riemsdyk (2), L. Raymond (29)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +37 ptsVideo
    3-3
    15:57

Overtime

  1. DET
    D. Larkin(20)
    M. Seider (23), L. Raymond (30)
    snapxG 0.17win prob +49 ptsVideo
    3-4
    0:34

Penalties

DAL 6 PIM·DET 10 PIM

1st

  • 18:22DETMoritz Seider · Holdingdrawn by Sam Steel2 min

2nd

  • 9:07DETDylan Larkin · Trippingdrawn by Wyatt Johnston2 min
  • 14:41DALCasey DeSmith · Roughingdrawn by Emmitt Finnie2 min

3rd

  • 2:00DALJustin Hryckowian · Roughingdrawn by Jacob Bernard-Docker2 min
  • 7:13DETAxel Sandin-Pellikka · Holdingdrawn by Oskar Bäck2 min
  • 10:59DETJames van Riemsdyk · Holdingdrawn by Nils Lundkvist2 min
  • 13:30DETLucas Raymond · Cross checkingdrawn by Ilya Lyubushkin2 min
  • 14:09DALMikko Rantanen · Interferencedrawn by Simon Edvinsson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DET goalDAL goalFinal: DET 100%

Biggest swing: Dylan Larkin, OT 0:34 — DET 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
E. Finnie · On goal · xG 0.19D. Larkin · Goal · xG 0.17A. DeBrincat · Missed · xG 0.16J. van Riemsdyk · Goal · xG 0.15A. DeBrincat · Missed · xG 0.13D. Larkin · Missed · xG 0.13D. Larkin · Goal · xG 0.13E. Finnie · On goal · xG 0.11E. Finnie · On goal · xG 0.11L. Raymond · On goal · xG 0.10A. DeBrincat · Missed · xG 0.09E. Finnie · Missed · xG 0.09E. Finnie · On goal · xG 0.08D. Larkin · Missed · xG 0.07E. Finnie · Goal · xG 0.06D. Larkin · Missed · xG 0.06M. Kasper · On goal · xG 0.06J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.06N. Danielson · Missed · xG 0.05A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.05A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.05M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.05L. Raymond · On goal · xG 0.05L. Raymond · Missed · xG 0.03B. Chiarot · Missed · xG 0.03A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.03J. Leonard · On goal · xG 0.02N. Danielson · Missed · xG 0.02L. Raymond · On goal · xG 0.02D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.02M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.02A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.02M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.02A. Sandin-Pellikka · On goal · xG 0.01M. Seider · Missed · xG 0.01S. Edvinsson · Missed · xG 0.01J. Leonard · On goal · xG 0.00M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.00
DET4 G · 2.5 xG · 38 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DALvsDET
3.63 G
All situations
4 G2.5
2.61 G
Even strength
2 G1.4
1.12 G
Power play
2 G1.0
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 81 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DAL69%31%DET

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.54 – 2.41

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DALvsDET
22
Shots on goal
25
48%
Faceoffs
52%
2/5
Power play
2/3
6
Penalty minutes
10
20
Hits
16
8
Blocked shots
16
15
Giveaways
12
4
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Dallas Stars skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4M. HeiskanenD011-120.13110—27:44
55T. HarleyD000010.32100—22:10
21J. RobertsonL011-250.75000—21:56
23E. LindellD000000.00020—21:30
53W. JohnstonC101030.480002520:07
96M. RantanenR022000.28002—20:01
24R. HintzC101-220.500006918:46
5N. LundkvistD000000.05010—16:41
22M. BourqueC000-140.80000015:32
95M. DucheneC011+120.020004415:18
46I. LyubushkinD000000.00310—14:30
18S. SteelC000000.001008812:57
12R. FaksaC000000.034002012:56
10O. BäckC000000.00020012:45
28A. PetrovicD000010.01100—12:17
49J. HryckowianC011+110.08102011:26
14J. BennL101+110.182003310:45
73A. ErneL000000.00610—10:15
Dallas Stars goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1C. DeSmith(O)25214.8402.47-1.5359:50

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).