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Mammoth at Penguins
NHL

Utah Mammoth at Pittsburgh Penguins

NHL scoreboard
Utah Mammoth
▸5
Pittsburgh Penguins
4
Final/OTTV Utah16, SN-PIT·PPG Paints Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Utah Mammoth beat the Pittsburgh Penguins 5-4 in overtime, Dylan Guenther scoring at 0:42. The Mammoth came back from three goals down. The Penguins led 3-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Dylan Guenther's goal at 0:42 of overtime, which took the Mammoth's chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Mammoth, 3.2 to 1.2; shots on goal were UTA 36, PIT 16. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Mammoth win a replay of these chances 83% of the time. Karel Vejmelka stopped 12 of 16 (.750), 2.8 goals below expected; Sergei Murashov stopped 31 of 36 (.861), 1.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Michael Carcone (2 G), 2. Justin Brazeau (2 G), 3. Dylan Guenther (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    UTA
    M. Carcone2 G
  2. ★★
    PIT
    J. Brazeau2 G
  3. ★★★
    UTA
    D. Guenther1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
UTAUTA0701141711536
PITPIT26141600416

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. PIT
    J. Brazeau(7)
    B. Kindel (5), R. McGroarty (1)
    backhandxG 0.04win prob +11 ptsVideo
    0-1
    0:48
  2. PIT
    B. Rust(11)
    R. Rakell (6)
    backhandxG 0.04win prob +14 ptsVideo
    0-2
    15:21

2nd period

  1. PIT
    B. Kindel(8)
    R. Shea (10), K. Letang (14)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +9 ptsVideo
    0-3
    5:40

3rd period

  1. UTA
    N. Schmidt(2)
    N. Schmaltz (18), J. Peterka (12)
    wristxG 0.22win prob +6 ptsVideo
    1-3
    1:07
  2. UTA
    M. Carcone(5)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.03win prob +15 ptsVideo
    2-3
    1:22
  3. UTA
    S. Durzi(1)
    K. Yamamoto (5), M. Sergachev (18)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +27 ptsVideo
    3-3
    5:35
  4. UTA
    M. Carcone(6)PPG
    B. Hayton (3), D. But (1)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +28 ptsVideo
    4-3
    7:06
  5. PIT
    J. Brazeau(8)
    E. Karlsson (21), B. Kindel (6)
    tip-inxG 0.11win prob +38 ptsVideo
    4-4
    14:06

Overtime

  1. UTA
    D. Guenther(15)
    J. Marino (15)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +51 ptsVideo
    5-4
    0:42

Penalties

UTA 4 PIM·PIT 10 PIM

1st

  • 4:30PITBen Kindel · Hookingdrawn by Nick Schmaltz2 min
  • 9:18UTANate Schmidt · Trippingdrawn by Tommy Novak2 min
  • 16:33UTAIan Cole · Roughingdrawn by Sidney Crosby2 min

2nd

  • 9:04PITVille Koivunen · Hookingdrawn by Jack McBain2 min
  • 14:11PITConnor Clifton · Interferencedrawn by Nick Schmaltz2 min

3rd

  • 5:35PITserved by V. Koivunen · Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
  • 10:52PITBryan Rust · Hookingdrawn by Sean Durzi2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
PIT goalUTA goalFinal: PIT 0%

Biggest swing: Dylan Guenther, OT 0:42 — UTA 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Dewar · Missed · xG 0.18B. Kindel · Goal · xG 0.12V. Koivunen · Missed · xG 0.12R. Rakell · Missed · xG 0.11J. Brazeau · Goal · xG 0.11B. Kindel · Missed · xG 0.07T. Novak · On goal · xG 0.07A. Mantha · On goal · xG 0.07N. Acciari · On goal · xG 0.05E. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.05J. Brazeau · Goal · xG 0.04B. Kindel · On goal · xG 0.04B. Rust · On goal · xG 0.04B. Rust · Goal · xG 0.03C. Clifton · On goal · xG 0.03T. Novak · On goal · xG 0.02E. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.02N. Acciari · On goal · xG 0.02K. Letang · Missed · xG 0.01N. Acciari · On goal · xG 0.01C. Dewar · On goal · xG 0.00P. Wotherspoon · Missed · xG 0.00
PIT4 G · 1.2 xG · 22 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

UTAvsPIT
3.25 G
All situations
4 G1.2
1.74 G
Even strength
4 G0.9
1.51 G
Power play
0 G0.1
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 81 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
UTA83%17%PIT

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.15 – 1.23

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

UTAvsPIT
36
Shots on goal
16
50%
Faceoffs
50%
1/5
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
10
9
Hits
18
7
Blocked shots
17
20
Giveaways
15
5
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Utah Mammoth skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
98M. SergachevD011-110.03000—23:29
9C. KellerR000+120.15000—23:03
6J. MarinoD011+110.02000—22:57
8N. SchmaltzC011080.890105022:51
77J. PeterkaR011080.51000—21:55
11D. GuentherR101040.53000—20:16
88N. SchmidtD101010.22022—19:44
67L. CrouseL000-120.454105018:24
50S. DurziD101-120.04020—17:59
28I. ColeD000000.01102—17:24
27B. HaytonC011-100.001005014:51
82K. StenlundC000010.010006713:32
53M. CarconeL202-150.27000—12:20
22J. McBainC000-100.062003311:48
19D. ButL011010.05000—10:45
2O. MaattaD000000.01010—10:30
56K. YamamotoR011+100.00100—09:18
38L. O'BrienC000+100.00000007:26
Utah Mammoth goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
70K. Vejmelka(W)16124.7501.24-2.7660:16

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).