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Sabres at Oilers
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Edmonton Oilers

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
▸4
Edmonton Oilers
3
Final/OTTV MSG-B, SNW·Rogers Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Edmonton Oilers 4-3 in overtime, Alex Tuch scoring at 0:33. The Sabres scored first and never trailed. The Sabres led 3-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Alex Tuch's goal at 0:33 of overtime, which took the Sabres' chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Oilers, 2.9 to 2.6; shots on goal were BUF 28, EDM 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Oilers win a replay of these chances 55% of the time. Alex Lyon stopped 21 of 24 (.875), 0.5 goals below expected; Stuart Skinner stopped 24 of 28 (.857), 1.4 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Josh Doan (2 G), 2. Connor McDavid (2 G), 3. Alex Tuch (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    J. Doan2 G
  2. ★★
    EDM
    C. McDavid2 G
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    A. Tuch1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
BUFBUF172140611428
EDMEDM0801031200330

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    J. Doan(9)PPG
    R. Dahlin (19), T. Thompson (11)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-0
    19:01

2nd period

  1. BUF
    T. Thompson(14)
    Unassisted
    snapxG 0.31win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-0
    11:03
  2. BUF
    J. Doan(10)PPG
    T. Thompson (12), R. Dahlin (20)
    between-legsxG 0.17win prob +7 ptsVideo
    3-0
    11:59

3rd period

  1. EDM
    C. McDavid(15)
    M. Ekholm (13)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +8 ptsVideo
    3-1
    0:10
  2. EDM
    V. Podkolzin(6)
    L. Draisaitl (21), T. Emberson (6)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +17 ptsVideo
    3-2
    1:56
  3. EDM
    C. McDavid(16)
    R. Nugent-Hopkins (16), E. Bouchard (23)
    snapxG 0.21win prob +49 ptsVideo
    3-3
    19:58

Overtime

  1. BUF
    A. Tuch(11)
    R. McLeod (10), R. Dahlin (21)
    wristxG 0.19win prob +51 ptsVideo
    4-3
    0:33

Penalties

BUF 8 PIM·EDM 12 PIM

1st

  • 12:51EDMDarnell Nurse · Boardingdrawn by Peyton Krebs2 min
  • 18:28EDMDavid Tomasek · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Colten Ellis2 min

2nd

  • 5:27BUFJack Quinn · Hookingdrawn by Evan Bouchard2 min
  • 11:19EDMZach Hyman · Interferencedrawn by Josh Doan2 min
  • 15:31BUFBeck Malenstyn · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

3rd

  • 7:51BUFRasmus Dahlin · Trippingdrawn by Leon Draisaitl2 min
  • 12:51EDMZach Hyman · Hookingdrawn by Conor Timmins2 min
  • 13:59EDMAdam Henrique · Trippingdrawn by Tage Thompson2 min
  • 15:11BUFAlex Tuch · Hookingdrawn by Zach Hyman2 min
  • 17:17EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins · Hookingdrawn by Beck Malenstyn2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
EDM goalBUF goalFinal: EDM 0%

Biggest swing: Alex Tuch, OT 0:33 — BUF 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
V. Podkolzin · On goal · xG 0.32C. McDavid · Goal · xG 0.22L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.19V. Podkolzin · On goal · xG 0.14L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.13Z. Hyman · Missed · xG 0.13C. McDavid · Goal · xG 0.12V. Podkolzin · Goal · xG 0.10M. Janmark · Missed · xG 0.09L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.08L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.08L. Draisaitl · Missed · xG 0.08C. McDavid · Missed · xG 0.08Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.07T. Frederic · On goal · xG 0.07M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.07A. Henrique · On goal · xG 0.07C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.07R. Nugent-Hopkins · On goal · xG 0.06A. Mangiapane · Missed · xG 0.06Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.06M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.05M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.05L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.05R. Nugent-Hopkins · Missed · xG 0.05L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.04L. Draisaitl · Missed · xG 0.04D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.04C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.03M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.03M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.03E. Bouchard · Missed · xG 0.02E. Bouchard · Missed · xG 0.02C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.02E. Bouchard · On goal · xG 0.02D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.02L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.02E. Bouchard · On goal · xG 0.02M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.02L. Draisaitl · Missed · xG 0.01C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.01D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.01B. Kulak · Missed · xG 0.00R. Nugent-Hopkins · On goal · xG 0.00
EDM3 G · 2.9 xG · 44 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsEDM
2.64 G
All situations
3 G2.9
1.52 G
Even strength
3 G1.8
1.12 G
Power play
0 G1.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 80 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF45%55%EDM

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.58 – 2.84

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsEDM
28
Shots on goal
30
38%
Faceoffs
62%
2/6
Power play
0/4
8
Penalty minutes
12
14
Hits
17
12
Blocked shots
15
10
Giveaways
14
6
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
23M. SamuelssonD000010.02120—26:09
26R. DahlinD033040.28002—22:58
71R. McLeodC011-120.080103122:37
89A. TuchR101+220.37012—22:37
21C. TimminsD000-100.00000—22:09
4B. ByramD000-100.04030—21:14
72T. ThompsonC123+140.640005619:11
25O. PowerD000020.07110—17:54
6Z. BensonL000-120.16020—16:50
19P. KrebsC000+110.002003816:10
22J. QuinnR000-120.10002—15:07
91J. DoanR202-250.56100—15:07
48T. KozakC000-100.003005011:35
29B. MalenstynL000-100.13402—11:23
12J. GreenwayL000010.05000—09:40
63I. RosenR000-110.05000—09:05
44J. DunneC000000.001104007:45
78J. BrysonD000-110.02110—06:08
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
34A. Lyon(W)24213.8752.50-0.5041:32
92C. Ellis6601.0000.40+0.4019:01

Season series

BUF leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).