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Oilers at Sabres
NHL

Edmonton Oilers at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Edmonton Oilers
1
Buffalo Sabres
▸5
FinalTV MSG-B, SNW·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Edmonton Oilers 5-1. The Sabres scored first and never trailed. The Sabres led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Bowen Byram's goal at 8:41 of the second period, which took the Sabres' chances from 53% to 71%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 3.8 to 2.1; shots on goal were EDM 33, BUF 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 71% of the time. Stuart Skinner stopped 23 of 27 (.852), 0.6 goals below expected; Colten Ellis stopped 32 of 33 (.970), 1.1 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Noah Ostlund (2 G), 2. Colten Ellis (32 saves, .970), 3. Rasmus Dahlin (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    N. Ostlund2 G
  2. ★★
    BUF
    C. Ellis32 saves, .970
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    R. Dahlin2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
EDMEDM07110016133
BUFBUF1621329528

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    N. Ostlund(2)PPG
    I. Rosen (3), R. Dahlin (11)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    19:03

2nd period

  1. EDM
    J. Roslovic(7)
    L. Draisaitl (11), A. Mangiapane (3)
    snapxG 0.06win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-1
    4:29
  2. BUF
    B. Byram(3)
    T. Kozak (1), P. Krebs (5)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +18 ptsVideo
    1-2
    8:41
  3. BUF
    B. Malenstyn(1)
    R. Dahlin (12), M. Samuelsson (5)
    tip-inxG 0.05win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-3
    9:43

3rd period

  1. BUF
    N. Ostlund(3)
    J. Dunne (1)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +4 ptsVideo
    1-4
    7:55
  2. BUF
    T. Thompson(9)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.41Video
    1-5
    17:37

Penalties

EDM 9 PIM·BUF 7 PIM

1st

  • 6:58EDMMattias Ekholm · High stickingdrawn by Alex Tuch2 min
  • 10:50BUFJosh Doan · Interferencedrawn by Andrew Mangiapane2 min
  • 18:36EDMConnor McDavid · High stickingdrawn by Rasmus Dahlin2 min

2nd

  • 20:00EDMVasily Podkolzin · Fightingdrawn by Peyton Krebs5 min
  • 20:00BUFPeyton Krebs · Fightingdrawn by Vasily Podkolzin5 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalEDM goalFinal: BUF 100%

Biggest swing: Bowen Byram, 2nd 8:41 — BUF 53% → 71%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Thompson · Goal · xG 0.41B. Malenstyn · On goal · xG 0.23J. Greenway · Missed · xG 0.21I. Rosen · On goal · xG 0.17T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.17J. Greenway · Missed · xG 0.16A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.16N. Ostlund · Goal · xG 0.15T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.15T. Kozak · Missed · xG 0.11A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.10R. McLeod · On goal · xG 0.10J. Doan · On goal · xG 0.10R. McLeod · On goal · xG 0.10P. Krebs · On goal · xG 0.09A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.09B. Malenstyn · On goal · xG 0.08T. Kozak · On goal · xG 0.08A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.08J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.08P. Krebs · Missed · xG 0.08B. Byram · Goal · xG 0.07N. Ostlund · Goal · xG 0.06A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.06J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.06R. McLeod · Missed · xG 0.06P. Krebs · Missed · xG 0.06B. Malenstyn · Goal · xG 0.05A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.05T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.05A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.05T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.05N. Ostlund · On goal · xG 0.05J. Quinn · Missed · xG 0.04R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.04O. Power · Missed · xG 0.03T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.02M. Samuelsson · Missed · xG 0.02J. Quinn · Missed · xG 0.02R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.02B. Byram · On goal · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.01J. Doan · Missed · xG 0.01R. McLeod · Missed · xG 0.01A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.01P. Krebs · On goal · xG 0.01C. Timmins · On goal · xG 0.01
BUF5 G · 3.8 xG · 47 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

EDMvsBUF
2.11 G
All situations
4 G3.8
1.51 G
Even strength
3 G3.0
0.60 G
Power play
1 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 93 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
EDM29%71%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.11 – 3.34

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

EDMvsBUF
33
Shots on goal
28
56%
Faceoffs
44%
0/1
Power play
1/2
9
Penalty minutes
7
20
Hits
13
16
Blocked shots
19
17
Giveaways
14
5
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Edmonton Oilers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
2E. BouchardD000060.22030—24:16
97C. McDavidC000-210.040026023:35
29L. DraisaitlC011020.350005923:07
14M. EkholmD000+130.07242—22:35
18Z. HymanL000-230.30400—22:06
25D. NurseD000-250.04110—22:03
96J. WalmanD000-300.02010—19:38
27B. KulakD000-110.02040—18:16
28J. RoslovicC101-110.060003317:51
22M. SavoieC000-120.480003315:49
92V. PodkolzinR000-100.03415—14:41
88A. MangiapaneL011+120.07100—13:33
19A. HenriqueC000020.101105313:23
10T. FredericC000020.2351010012:24
75A. RegulaD000-120.03000—12:09
20C. LazarC000-210.061006709:03
13M. JanmarkC000-100.00000008:35
48N. PhilpC000-100.001005006:23
Edmonton Oilers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
74S. Skinner(L)27234.8523.42-0.5858:06

Season series

BUF leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).