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Sabres at Flames
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Calgary Flames

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
4
Calgary Flames
▸7
FinalTV MSG-B, SNW·Scotiabank Saddledome

Recap

written from the game data

The Calgary Flames beat the Buffalo Sabres 7-4. The Flames scored first and never trailed. The Flames led 5-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nazem Kadri's goal at 14:14 of the second period, which took the Flames' chances from 73% to 88%. Expected goals favored the Flames, 4.3 to 3.2; shots on goal were BUF 29, CGY 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 17 of 22 (.773), 2.2 goals below expected; Dustin Wolf stopped 25 of 29 (.862), 0.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Nazem Kadri (1 G, 2 A), 2. Yegor Sharangovich (2 G, 1 A), 3. Rasmus Dahlin (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CGY
    N. Kadri1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    CGY
    Y. Sharangovich2 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    R. Dahlin1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF0731517429
CGYCGY21231026728

Scoring

11 goals

1st period

  1. CGY
    Y. Sharangovich(5)
    M. Weegar (5), N. Kadri (19)
    deflectedxG 0.14win prob +13 ptsVideo
    0-1
    9:54
  2. CGY
    R. Andersson(7)PPG
    M. Coronato (8), N. Kadri (20)
    slapxG 0.08win prob +13 ptsVideo
    0-2
    13:22

2nd period

  1. BUF
    T. Thompson(13)PPG
    J. Zucker (8), J. Norris (4)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-2
    4:24
  2. CGY
    J. Huberdeau(6)PPG
    M. Coronato (9), M. Frost (10)
    tip-inxG 0.25win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-3
    7:05
  3. BUF
    O. Power(3)
    P. Krebs (8), J. Bryson (3)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +15 ptsVideo
    2-3
    13:43
  4. CGY
    N. Kadri(6)
    J. Farabee (8), Y. Sharangovich (5)
    tip-inxG 0.18win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-4
    14:14
  5. BUF
    R. Dahlin(2)
    J. Doan (12), J. Norris (5)
    tip-inxG 0.32win prob +15 ptsVideo
    3-4
    16:32
  6. CGY
    Y. Kuznetsov(2)
    B. Coleman (5)
    pokexG 0.42win prob +14 ptsVideo
    3-5
    17:27

3rd period

  1. BUF
    A. Tuch(10)PPG
    R. Dahlin (18), J. Zucker (9)
    tip-inxG 0.13win prob +5 ptsVideo
    4-5
    17:29
  2. CGY
    M. Backlund(5)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.53win prob +4 ptsVideo
    4-6
    18:12
  3. CGY
    Y. Sharangovich(6)EN
    Y. Kuznetsov (3)
    wristxG 0.45Video
    4-7
    19:53

Penalties

BUF 16 PIM·CGY 18 PIM

1st

  • 1:26CGYRasmus Andersson · Trippingdrawn by Jordan Greenway2 min
  • 10:40CGYAdam Klapka · Interferencedrawn by Mattias Samuelsson2 min
  • 10:40BUFPeyton Krebs · Roughingdrawn by Ryan Lomberg2 min
  • 10:40CGYRyan Lomberg · Roughingdrawn by Peyton Krebs2 min
  • 11:21BUFJosh Doan · Interferencedrawn by Joel Farabee2 min
  • 12:50BUFJack Quinn · Trippingdrawn by Rasmus Andersson2 min

2nd

  • 2:28CGYMorgan Frost · Trippingdrawn by Conor Timmins2 min
  • 5:02BUFBeck Malenstyn · Interferencedrawn by Joel Farabee2 min
  • 6:54BUFJordan Greenway · Trippingdrawn by Matt Coronato2 min
  • 16:44BUFJason Zucker · High stickingdrawn by Brayden Pachal2 min
  • 17:14CGYMatt Coronato · High stickingdrawn by Alex Tuch2 min
  • 19:14CGYMikael Backlund · Slashingdrawn by Tage Thompson2 min

3rd

  • 1:32CGYJonathan Huberdeau · Roughingdrawn by Ryan McLeod2 min
  • 1:32BUFRyan McLeod · Roughingdrawn by Jonathan Huberdeau2 min
  • 17:02CGYKevin Bahl · Roughingdrawn by Peyton Krebs2 min
  • 17:02BUFPeyton Krebs · Roughingdrawn by Kevin Bahl2 min
  • 17:02CGYDustin Wolf · Roughingdrawn by Peyton Krebs2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CGY goalBUF goalFinal: CGY 100%

Biggest swing: Nazem Kadri, 2nd 14:14 — CGY 73% → 88%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Backlund · Goal · xG 0.53Y. Sharangovich · Goal · xG 0.45Y. Kuznetsov · Goal · xG 0.42J. Farabee · On goal · xG 0.33J. Huberdeau · Goal · xG 0.25B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.23Y. Sharangovich · Missed · xG 0.21J. Farabee · On goal · xG 0.20N. Kadri · Goal · xG 0.18Y. Sharangovich · Goal · xG 0.14A. Klapka · On goal · xG 0.13M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.11A. Klapka · Missed · xG 0.10N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.09R. Andersson · Goal · xG 0.08M. Backlund · Missed · xG 0.08C. Zary · Missed · xG 0.07J. Huberdeau · On goal · xG 0.07B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.06R. Andersson · On goal · xG 0.06J. Huberdeau · Missed · xG 0.06R. Andersson · On goal · xG 0.06Y. Sharangovich · Missed · xG 0.05M. Coronato · On goal · xG 0.04M. Weegar · Missed · xG 0.03K. Bahl · On goal · xG 0.03B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.03M. Weegar · On goal · xG 0.02M. Coronato · Missed · xG 0.02B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.02C. Zary · On goal · xG 0.02K. Bahl · On goal · xG 0.02R. Andersson · On goal · xG 0.01M. Weegar · Missed · xG 0.01B. Pachal · Missed · xG 0.01M. Coronato · On goal · xG 0.01J. Hanley · On goal · xG 0.01R. Andersson · Missed · xG 0.01A. Klapka · On goal · xG 0.01
CGY7 G · 4.3 xG · 39 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsCGY
3.24 G
All situations
5 G4.3
1.82 G
Even strength
3 G2.8
1.42 G
Power play
2 G0.5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 87 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF51%49%CGY

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.21 – 3.16

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsCGY
29
Shots on goal
28
47%
Faceoffs
53%
2/6
Power play
2/5
16
Penalty minutes
18
19
Hits
17
8
Blocked shots
17
9
Giveaways
14
4
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
26R. DahlinD112-320.42110—24:51
89A. TuchR101-340.53010—21:42
72T. ThompsonC101-430.301103121:22
25O. PowerD101-220.16100—21:17
23M. SamuelssonD000+100.01100—20:24
4B. ByramD000-210.07020—19:54
9J. NorrisC022-220.390004217:57
21C. TimminsD000-110.01010—17:17
71R. McLeodC000020.110026117:14
17J. ZuckerL022-220.551022017:05
22J. QuinnR000-110.0721210016:19
91J. DoanR011010.0810210015:39
6Z. BensonL000+130.122005014:08
19P. KrebsC011+100.084146413:21
12J. GreenwayL000-220.03202—09:44
78J. BrysonD011+110.02100—09:00
48T. KozakC000+110.061003307:35
29B. MalenstynL000+110.23102—07:30
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1U. Luukkonen(L)22175.7732.84-2.1640:00
34A. Lyon4401.0000.44+0.4417:29

Season series

CGY leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).