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Flames at Sabres
NHL

Calgary Flames at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Calgary Flames
▸6
Buffalo Sabres
2
FinalTV MSG-B, SN1·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Calgary Flames beat the Buffalo Sabres 6-2. The Flames scored first and never trailed. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Morgan Frost's goal at 2:02 of the third period, which took the Flames' chances from 48% to 73%. Expected goals favored the Flames, 2.6 to 1.8; shots on goal were CGY 35, BUF 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flames win a replay of these chances 66% of the time. Devin Cooley stopped 28 of 30 (.933); Colten Ellis stopped 29 of 35 (.829), 3.4 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Joel Farabee (2 G), 2. Rasmus Andersson (1 G, 2 A), 3. Mattias Samuelsson (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CGY
    J. Farabee2 G
  2. ★★
    CGY
    R. Andersson1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    M. Samuelsson1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CGYCGY211010414635
BUFBUF05212013230

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. CGY
    R. Andersson(5)
    Y. Sharangovich (3), K. Bahl (3)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-0
    5:58
  2. CGY
    J. Farabee(3)
    N. Kadri (9), Y. Sharangovich (4)
    tip-inxG 0.11win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-0
    12:04

2nd period

  1. BUF
    M. Samuelsson(4)
    Unassisted
    snapxG 0.06win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-1
    10:21
  2. BUF
    T. Thompson(10)
    M. Samuelsson (6), R. Dahlin (13)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +21 ptsVideo
    2-2
    15:57

3rd period

  1. CGY
    M. Frost(4)
    J. Huberdeau (6), M. Coronato (5)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +25 ptsVideo
    3-2
    2:02
  2. CGY
    M. Backlund(4)
    R. Andersson (6)
    snapxG 0.23win prob +17 ptsVideo
    4-2
    7:34
  3. CGY
    J. Farabee(4)
    R. Andersson (7), N. Kadri (10)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +4 ptsVideo
    5-2
    9:50
  4. CGY
    M. Coronato(7)
    J. Huberdeau (7), M. Frost (8)
    slapxG 0.20Video
    6-2
    17:49

Penalties

CGY 6 PIM·BUF 2 PIM

1st

  • 2:39CGYMorgan Frost · Hookingdrawn by Noah Ostlund2 min
  • 18:17BUFJosh Dunne · Interferencedrawn by Sam Morton2 min

2nd

  • 4:39CGYJoel Hanley · Interferencedrawn by Beck Malenstyn2 min
  • 11:39CGYBlake Coleman · Holding the stickdrawn by Isak Rosen2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalCGY goalFinal: BUF 0%

Biggest swing: Morgan Frost, 3rd 2:02 — CGY 48% → 73%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
P. Krebs · On goal · xG 0.16M. Samuelsson · On goal · xG 0.11R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.11T. Kozak · On goal · xG 0.10R. McLeod · On goal · xG 0.08B. Malenstyn · Missed · xG 0.07R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.07B. Malenstyn · On goal · xG 0.07N. Ostlund · Missed · xG 0.07T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.07R. McLeod · On goal · xG 0.07M. Samuelsson · Goal · xG 0.06J. Doan · On goal · xG 0.05M. Samuelsson · Missed · xG 0.05P. Krebs · On goal · xG 0.05T. Kozak · On goal · xG 0.05J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.04A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.04R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.04A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.03T. Thompson · Goal · xG 0.03B. Malenstyn · Missed · xG 0.03O. Power · Missed · xG 0.03T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.03J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.02J. Doan · On goal · xG 0.02J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.02N. Ostlund · On goal · xG 0.02M. Samuelsson · Missed · xG 0.02R. McLeod · Missed · xG 0.02A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.02R. McLeod · On goal · xG 0.01J. Doan · On goal · xG 0.01B. Malenstyn · On goal · xG 0.01M. Samuelsson · On goal · xG 0.01A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.01B. Malenstyn · Missed · xG 0.01B. Byram · On goal · xG 0.01T. Kozak · On goal · xG 0.01C. Timmins · Missed · xG 0.01J. Dunne · On goal · xG 0.01B. Byram · Missed · xG 0.00
BUF2 G · 1.8 xG · 43 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CGYvsBUF
2.66 G
All situations
2 G1.8
2.16 G
Even strength
2 G1.6
0.40 G
Power play
0 G0.2
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 91 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CGY66%34%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.59 – 1.75

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CGYvsBUF
35
Shots on goal
30
53%
Faceoffs
47%
0/1
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
2
17
Hits
17
16
Blocked shots
25
12
Giveaways
17
4
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Calgary Flames skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4R. AnderssonD123+230.19030—23:51
7K. BahlD011+320.05000—22:12
52M. WeegarD000010.09110—21:55
37Y. KuznetsovD000-110.02020—20:39
86J. FarabeeL202+240.51010—18:27
91N. KadriC022+260.591006418:05
20B. ColemanL000+120.02212—17:16
11M. BacklundC101+130.260005316:53
17Y. SharangovichC022+210.07000016:21
44J. HanleyD000+210.02142—15:53
10J. HuberdeauL022+110.0030010014:55
94B. PachalD000+210.00400—14:26
16M. FrostC112+110.151127813:49
47C. ZaryC000+110.11010013:33
27M. CoronatoR112+130.410002013:21
18J. BeecherC000020.03110012:47
45S. MortonC000010.002105010:25
43A. KlapkaR000010.05100—09:12
Calgary Flames goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1D. Cooley(W)30282.9331.76-0.2460:00

Season series

CGY leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).